Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Same game, Betfair are 1.44 the LAY on Liverpool.

[redarmi]

All this pope stuff reminds me of a joke I once heard which sums up punters:

Bill is on holiday in Rome and visits the Vatican and, as a devout Catholic, hopes to see the Pope taking Mass.  Unfortunately the Pope isn't available to take Mass this day and, understandably disappointed, Bill stays behind after Mass to ask the Cardinal who stood in why the Pope wasn't available.  The Cardinal takes him to one side and apologises before informing him that the Pope has been ill for some time and isn't expected to last the next few days.  This gives Bill an idea and as a regular punter when he gets back to the UK he heads straight for Ladbrokes and asks for a price on the Pope dying in the next week and is quoted 66/1.  He has a decent bet and on his way out he spots his mate Bob looking a bit depressed and asks him whats wrong.   "Bill" he says "I've done my bollocks at Crayford and have only got fifty quid of my wages left.  The missus is going to kill me"  Bill thinks for a while and then says"listen mate I have a 66/1 certainty for you" and passes on the info about the Pope.   The next day the Vatican declares the Pope is dead and Bill goes to Laddies to collect his readies.  On his way out he spots Bob again looking just as depressed as he did yesterday and asks him whats wrong and didn't he get on the bet.  Bob says " yeah i did but I put him in a double with the Archibishop of Canterbury"

[horseplayer]

Regarding Liverpool, I remember them being chalked up at these 1/3 shots at home to Stoke/Reading when they were playing badly earlier in the season, so for me that was the time to oppose them, not at the same price against an out of sorts WBA when Liverpool are definitely playing well?

No Sturridge for Liverpool tonight, so although they've been playing well his absence means a win for Liverpool has to be less likely than if he wasn't injured.

7/1 on DNB not looking that bad.

Sill go back to earlier game where West Brom was very good value for their win.

i do not like the "mood" in the west brom camp.

One of there most popular players Olson flicked the v at his own fans after the match last week and reid tried to have a stand up row with mr disappearing act

As i mentioned before the spurs game i also dont like the way they suddenly went to a 4-4-2 after a long spell playing one upfront.

I understand what you are saying here Horsey but the simple fact of the matter is these two sides are 2 points apart in the league,  WBA won the reverse fixture 3-0 and the supposed improvement in Liverpools form (Sturridge) is missing and yet Liverpool are 1-3!!!  They just cannot be that price with Sturridge playing for me nevermind without him.  Imagine if it was Swansea playing at home (they are above in the league table to Liverpool) we wouldn't even bother betting because the prices would be so bad we would assume that it was a palpable error.  Liverpool are priced on reputation as effectively a top 5 team but they still haven't proven that.  I have been as impressed by them as anyone in recent games but they have flattered to deceive before.  They might be becoming title challengers or they might be just a mid table team but at 9/1+ on WBA I am willing to take a chance.  I think they should be 6/1 max.  Lets not forget this "transformed" Liverpool team have conceded 3 goals to Oldham and a goal to Mansfield in addition to conceding against twice against Arsenal and City and once against MU in their last six games.

i am no fan of liverpool as a betting proposition red

was just pointing out what i perceive to be a negative with wba

fwiw i do not have a view on the game tonight at all

[The Camel]

Same game, Betfair are 1.44 the LAY on Liverpool.

Missed the price, no bet is my vote.

[The Camel]

I was close to hitting the lay button at 1.38

1.44 it's meh imo

[tikay]

Nice story reds.


Sort of nicely brings me back to Mr Not Very Often.

[redarmi]

Fwiw I had missed the market move so probably not a great bet now.  Would mark it down as a missed opportunity.

[TightEnd]

The Bet365 Madrid offer

Real Madrid and Man Utd clash in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium on Wednesday 13th February - and we’ve got a fantastic free bet offer to add to the excitement.

Place a pre-match bet on this much anticipated fixture and we will give you a free In-Play bet to the same stake on the big match.

To qualify for your free In-Play bet, simply place a bet before kick-off, then once the game starts place another bet on any In-Play market. If your FIRST In-Play bet loses we will refund this stake, up to the same value as your largest pre-match bet (max £50).

I am assuming you'll get on for £50

This might be one of many suggestions you'll get:


It's a first leg.

Man U tactically I think will stick two on Ronaldo. Da Silva with Valencia in front

They will play exclusively on the counter, with Rooney part of a 5 man midfield

Phil Jones man to man on Fellaini at the weekend was an interesting tactical nuance that I wondered might have been a precursor to something similar on Wednesday too


I think 1-1,1-0,0-0 are all very possible..both teams happy to take it to the second leg....

Bet365 are 5/4 Under 2.5 8/13 over

I suggest £50 on the under, which is decent value imo


If the under goes south, the reasonable possibility is that one of Higuain and Benzama, anytime goalscorer at 5/4 is better value than a double marked or man marked Ronaldo at 4/6

As the game starts, stick the free £50 on Benzema (or insert player of your choice) anytime

as the Unders bet and the anytime goalscorer bet amongst the best Madrid goalscoring bets are negatively correlated.



Happy to hear better suggestions!

[The Camel]

The Bet365 Madrid offer

Real Madrid and Man Utd clash in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium on Wednesday 13th February - and we’ve got a fantastic free bet offer to add to the excitement.

Place a pre-match bet on this much anticipated fixture and we will give you a free In-Play bet to the same stake on the big match.

To qualify for your free In-Play bet, simply place a bet before kick-off, then once the game starts place another bet on any In-Play market. If your FIRST In-Play bet loses we will refund this stake, up to the same value as your largest pre-match bet (max £50).

I am assuming you'll get on for £50

This might be one of many suggestions you'll get:


It's a first leg.

Man U tactically I think will stick two on Ronaldo. Da Silva with Valencia in front

They will play exclusively on the counter, with Rooney part of a 5 man midfield

Phil Jones man to man on Fellaini at the weekend was an interesting tactical nuance that I wondered might have been a precursor to something similar on Wednesday too


I think 1-1,1-0,0-0 are all very possible..both teams happy to take it to the second leg....

Bet365 are 5/4 Under 2.5 8/13 over

I suggest £50 on the under, which is decent value imo


If the under goes south, the reasonable possibility is that one of Higuain and Benzama, anytime goalscorer at 5/4 is better value than a double marked or man marked Ronaldo at 4/6

As the game starts, stick the free £50 on Benzema (or insert player of your choice) anytime

as the Unders bet and the anytime goalscorer bet amongst the best Madrid goalscoring bets are negatively correlated.



Happy to hear better suggestions!

If you are playing under/over play the Asian handicap goal line.

Much smaller overround to overcome.

[horseplayer]

The Bet365 Madrid offer

Real Madrid and Man Utd clash in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium on Wednesday 13th February - and we’ve got a fantastic free bet offer to add to the excitement.

Place a pre-match bet on this much anticipated fixture and we will give you a free In-Play bet to the same stake on the big match.

To qualify for your free In-Play bet, simply place a bet before kick-off, then once the game starts place another bet on any In-Play market. If your FIRST In-Play bet loses we will refund this stake, up to the same value as your largest pre-match bet (max £50).

I am assuming you'll get on for £50

This might be one of many suggestions you'll get:


It's a first leg.

Man U tactically I think will stick two on Ronaldo. Da Silva with Valencia in front

They will play exclusively on the counter, with Rooney part of a 5 man midfield

Phil Jones man to man on Fellaini at the weekend was an interesting tactical nuance that I wondered might have been a precursor to something similar on Wednesday too


I think 1-1,1-0,0-0 are all very possible..both teams happy to take it to the second leg....

Bet365 are 5/4 Under 2.5 8/13 over

I suggest £50 on the under, which is decent value imo


If the under goes south, the reasonable possibility is that one of Higuain and Benzama, anytime goalscorer at 5/4 is better value than a double marked or man marked Ronaldo at 4/6

As the game starts, stick the free £50 on Benzema (or insert player of your choice) anytime

as the Unders bet and the anytime goalscorer bet amongst the best Madrid goalscoring bets are negatively correlated.



Happy to hear better suggestions!

would really struggle to back either of the two mentioned at present tighty

both look slightly unfit mourinho has not got a clue which to pick and has publicly criticised them both last week

[tikay]

Fwiw I had missed the market move so probably not a great bet now.  Would mark it down as a missed opportunity.

OK, we shall keep our powder dry on this occasion.

I should add that the original suggestion for this bet, (Win @ 9/1, DNB @ 7/1) came from Aaron, late last week.

[TightEnd]

thanks

As I say, pick who you think is decent value/in form as a real Madrid anytime

As for Asian lines yes but its a Bet365 offer so got to find something on there if we intend to try the free bet. We might not, of course.



the central idea being you are going for a free bet negatively correlated with your first bet....


(took me several car trips to formulate this far!!)

[The Camel]

thanks

As I say, pick who you think is decent value/in form as a real Madrid anytime

As for Asian lines yes but its a Bet365 offer so got to find something on there if we intend to try the free bet. We might not, of course.



the central idea being you are going for a free bet negatively correlated with your first bet....


(took me several car trips to formulate this far!!)

Bet365 offer Asian handicaps.

[horseplayer]

having said that the last twice mourinho has bollocked benzema he has played pretty much his best games for madrid in his next start

very much a stick merchant rather than carrot

[Tal]

Deadline extended by request and because I'm not available to do the reveal tonight.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=60226.msg1710948#msg1710948

Here's the link, should any Fredites fancy it.