Tips for Tikay

[Karabiner]

www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJQQLwaKcqI

[the sicilian]

[Dubai]

Last prices i saw on place market were 1.6, 2.2, 2.5 or so. Obv someone can work out price for all of them not to place, given the odds are affected by each one that doesnt place before.

So every x amount of time that will happen. And im sure x is a decent double digit number. So it can happen

[TightEnd]

tikay

8.30pm tonight ch 426 redarmi's Tampa Bay Rays v the Orioles

[Jamier-Host]

Last prices i saw on place market were 1.6, 2.2, 2.5 or so. Obv someone can work out price for all of them not to place, given the odds are affected by each one that doesnt place before.

So every x amount of time that will happen. And im sure x is a decent double digit number. So it can happen

lol. Fred about to go chasing!

(i did a few quid on the race too btw)

[TightEnd]

Um, how deep is the hole please?

Collectively strap ourselves in and get out of it!

[redarmi]

tikay

8.30pm tonight ch 426 redarmi's Tampa Bay Rays v the Orioles

There are 162 games in a baseball season for every team so it is silly to put too much emphasis on any individual game but this is a decent early test.  Price should be able to win this matchup if he is anything like as good as last year.  Be nice to get off to a win.

On the Dubai bets couple of minor points but worth making.  We don't have the rest of the month to make it up.  Months, days, weeks are false timescales that force us into bad decisions.  The absolute minimum period we should be assessing anything over is 3 months.  In the last month we have run ridiculously well even though we have had +EV we have run so far above EV it is ridiculous.  The England game was a great example and so was Cheltenham.  These losers probably just mean we are running close to EV now.  From a mental perspective it is massively important not to get too excited when we win and not worry too much when we lose so long as we are making the right decisions which I think we largely are now.  Just think everytime you bet £100, I have just made a fiver (roughly of course).  So long as you are rolled for it the rest will take care of itself.

[tikay]

tikay

8.30pm tonight ch 426 redarmi's Tampa Bay Rays v the Orioles

Bugger! I'm working tonight, how unlucky is that?

I watched all of the Baseball yersterday on ESPN. Think I am a Dodgers fan now.

Did you see that Kershaw hit a Homer, AND a shut-out?

Would like to be in his shoes now, negotiating his new Contrtact......

PS - Loved the whole Baseball thing, much better now I understand some of the terminology.

And those Stadiums, WOW!

[mondatoo]

What price would we be tempted to get involved in Bayern at ?

Nudge nudge wink wink.

4/6 @ Boyles seems close to me ?

[tikay]

tikay

8.30pm tonight ch 426 redarmi's Tampa Bay Rays v the Orioles

There are 162 games in a baseball season for every team so it is silly to put too much emphasis on any individual game but this is a decent early test.  Price should be able to win this matchup if he is anything like as good as last year.  Be nice to get off to a win.

On the Dubai bets couple of minor points but worth making.  We don't have the rest of the month to make it up.  Months, days, weeks are false timescales that force us into bad decisions.  The absolute minimum period we should be assessing anything over is 3 months.  In the last month we have run ridiculously well even though we have had +EV we have run so far above EV it is ridiculous.  The England game was a great example and so was Cheltenham.  These losers probably just mean we are running close to EV now.  From a mental perspective it is massively important not to get too excited when we win and not worry too much when we lose so long as we are making the right decisions which I think we largely are now.  Just think everytime you bet £100, I have just made a fiver (roughly of course).  So long as you are rolled for it the rest will take care of itself.

Fred Post of the Year. Every single word is correct.

Thanks Stu, all noted, & in much better perspective now.

[rfgqqabc]

Dubai I don't mean to be critical here, but your staking seems  off. My dad had 3 of these races sunday and 4 yesterday. Why pick this one to go after? Surely the Channing route of smaller stakes and doubles/trebles is the more effective route to take. There may be a touch of aftertiming and its absolutely brutal for all 3 not to place of course. I feel like the San Marino Goalscorers and others along those lines (the 5 places at Cheltenham) etc are better bets and weren't staked as big as those 3. I wish Fred had won so my point would be taken on better and ofc Tikay/you/me/everyone hadn't had lost. I typically love your aggressive stakes and Tikay has certainly needed a push in that direction at times, but it just seemed a bit off when you can find *good/ok e/w races most days. I do hope Hills don't limit accounts now, that would be a real kick in the teeth. Gutted for Fred.

*Obviously the margins are good in this race, and it is hard for all 3 to lose, but £100each ways are very big for a 5k roll.


edit: This would also go with what redarmi says imo, but feel free to message an imploite **** you if you want though, this post should have perhaps waited for tomorrow.

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 1020, Tuesday April 2nd

LOSS on Month = £18.30

Outstanding bets £1,203.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23



NB - this is as of Midnight last night, & does not include today's profits or losses.

[tikay]

Don't have time for a full Daily Summary today, but in brief...

Around 11 bets completed yesterday, of which THREE got home.

Well done to horneris for Bolton (+£40), horsey for the Bookings bet (+£25.50), & Simon for the wonderful value & fun Chess Bet (+£66.20).

[Dubai]

Dubai I don't mean to be critical here, but your staking seems  off. My dad had 3 of these races sunday and 4 yesterday. Why pick this one to go after? Surely the Channing route of smaller stakes and doubles/trebles is the more effective route to take. There may be a touch of aftertiming and its absolutely brutal for all 3 not to place of course. I feel like the San Marino Goalscorers and others along those lines (the 5 places at Cheltenham) etc are better bets and weren't staked as big as those 3. I wish Fred had won so my point would be taken on better and ofc Tikay/you/me/everyone hadn't had lost. I typically love your aggressive stakes and Tikay has certainly needed a push in that direction at times, but it just seemed a bit off when you can find *good/ok e/w races most days. I do hope Hills don't limit accounts now, that would be a real kick in the teeth. Gutted for Fred.

*Obviously the margins are good in this race, and it is hard for all 3 to lose, but £100each ways are very big for a 5k roll.


edit: This would also go with what redarmi says imo, but feel free to message an imploite **** you if you want though, this post should have perhaps waited for tomorrow.

Dont worry i wont take offence, big enough and brave enough to stand by it etc and face any consequences

Thought roll was 6k. Losing 10% of roll 4% of time or whatever it is, (havent worked it out) seems completely fine to me given every bet was really good.

I suggested more on the football than this, its obv not my fault if fred cant get on, and freds roll was smaller then so i suggested using a lot larger % of it than this. I think i quoted at one point, no number could be high enough on the football bets. Im obv a far more aggressive punter than some, but think a massive problem people have is not pushing decent edges enough, and when our roll increases so should our bets because its based on a % of the roll, not what we "feel comfortable" with.

Id be astonished if there was 3 of "these races" Sunday and 4 yesterday. Not every 8/9 runner race makes the place parts massively +Ev, the races you are talking about were much smaller margins. This is the best "play" race ive seen in a while, given the 1/2 fav, exactly 8 runners after one pulled out and 3 runners quoted at 50s+ on bf and i think 2 were treble figures.

I actually backed the 5th fav ew as well, which also didnt place. Making it a very impressive result for me lol

If Hills ever limits freds account solely based on this bet, il put any bet anyone wants on for fred with Hills

Each way doubles/trebles are worse account closers than betting multiple selections each way in the same race. I like the idea of aggressively taking multiple each way bets in the same race as it considerably lowers variance given its hard for them all not to place etc, and every bet is +ev.

[peejaytwo]

I was on jayo ew at 5/1 as it looked traffic value and the classic "bet to nothing"
The BETFAIR drift is a worry but the mathematics of the bet is fantastic, evens to place about a 1.6 probability
Is great value. Think perhaps the winner got the best ride and the jockey does matter in "amateur" races.
I had a normal bet, perhaps Fred should have staked a max across the 3 horses, but that's nowt to do with me.
These are bets the bookmakers hate, and Fred should carry on doing them, but they are account killers, stick to the shop runs if the accounts matter, the trade off been no BOG.