Tips for Tikay

[Tonji]

Thanks Tonji, looks an absolute steal, though I guess we've been there before.......

Yep, too many levels in cycling to make it a straightforward.

Two mountain stages, today and Saturday would likely have seen Evans overhaul Cavendish, but now just one and then a sprint stage into Brescia on Sunday swings the balance back in Cavendish’s direction.

Update for tomorrows stage profile is now this

[Doobs]

For discussion please


The Temple stakes at Haydock tomorrow

- Sole Power is a 2-1 favourite

but

it prefers quick ground, and rain is forecast until tomorrow

it is drawn 11 of 12, and 4 of the 5 winners since it was switched to Haydock were drawn 1-5

do we have any draw experts on here?

Isn't Sole Power a lay at these cramped odds in 5f handicap in uncertain weather and a bad (pending draw expert comment) draw?


2013 Temple Stakes Odds

2/1 Sole Power
3/1 Reckless Abandon
7/1 Kingsgate Native
8/1 Swiss Spirit
8/1 Spirit Quartz
12/1 Ballista
18/1 Tangerine Trees
18/1 Masamah
20/1 Morawij
25/1 Doc Hay
33/1 Ballesteros
40/1 Free Zone

It isn't a handicap, it is a group race.  The opposition looks mediocre, barring Reckless Abandon.  I'd rather back Reckless Abandon at 3/1 than Sole Power at 2.  I don't think you are going to get enough rain to make the ground soft, the BBC forecast is fairly clear up there.  As an aside we seem to have had a lot if rain, but it has missed Epsom too.

I'd be a layer rather than a backer at those odds, but definitely need the opinion of a draw expert.

[tikay]

For discussion please


The Temple stakes at Haydock tomorrow

- Sole Power is a 2-1 favourite

but

it prefers quick ground, and rain is forecast until tomorrow

it is drawn 11 of 12, and 4 of the 5 winners since it was switched to Haydock were drawn 1-5

do we have any draw experts on here?

Isn't Sole Power a lay at these cramped odds in 5f handicap in uncertain weather and a bad (pending draw expert comment) draw?


2013 Temple Stakes Odds

2/1 Sole Power
3/1 Reckless Abandon
7/1 Kingsgate Native
8/1 Swiss Spirit
8/1 Spirit Quartz
12/1 Ballista
18/1 Tangerine Trees
18/1 Masamah
20/1 Morawij
25/1 Doc Hay
33/1 Ballesteros
40/1 Free Zone

It isn't a handicap, it is a group race.  The opposition looks mediocre, barring Reckless Abandon.  I'd rather back Reckless Abandon at 3/1 than Sole Power at 2.  I don't think you are going to get enough rain to make the ground soft, the BBC forecast is fairly clear up there.  As an aside we seem to have had a lot if rain, but it has missed Epsom too.

I'd be a layer rather than a backer at those odds, but definitely need the opinion of a draw expert.

What we need, ideally, is a Fred regular who has written a book on the effect of the draw in Horse Racing.

[tikay]

.

[Chompy]

There's nothing in the draw at Haddock any more. As at so many courses they've managed to get jockeys going down the middle in one group.

[horseplayer]

stoke have contacted mark hughes


a certain agent is getting very excited already

[Tal]

stoke have contacted mark hughes


a certain agent is getting very excited already

I almost predicted this. Almost

[Junior Senior]

Still available at 7/4 with Carol!

[the sicilian]

stoke have contacted mark hughes


a certain agent is getting very excited already

LOL do Stoke want to get relegated?

[Tal]

Harry Redknapp goes 5/1 from 16/1 for the Everton job.

[horseplayer]

Harry Redknapp goes 5/1 from 16/1 for the Everton job.

looks like the same person who was backing klinsmann the other day for a £1000 at fancy prices

weird no way in hell 'arry goes that far north

[Tal]

Harry Redknapp goes 5/1 from 16/1 for the Everton job.

looks like the same person who was backing klinsmann the other day for a £1000 at fancy prices

weird no way in hell 'arry goes that far north

Exactly my thoughts. Long way from Sandbanks.

Am currently in a BetFred shop and the chap behind the counter spent the last ten minutes panicking. Called head office I think to inform them. Next minute, they were announcing it on the telly.

Believe it when I see it

[Doobs]

Thanks guys.

So, we can get 4/5 about what is likely to be 4/6 or worse, all things being equal.

And/or 5/1 about a horse rated 3lbs higher in a dirty ew race which may cut up badly.

Is this a clear either/or?

Excuse the ice-creamery, but we can only back one or the other, or is there a case for backing both?

I am beginning to regret reading the article I did this morning....

Leave St Nic, I think.
 

Why, & why?

I think the debate, the pros & cons, rather interesting, & for me, educational.

Just trying to rationalise it all.

I'm not criticising the debate, just it has left me feeling a bit confused. I thought it was a 1/2 shot I suppose and couldn't find a single commentator who had anything to oppose it

Then Doobs finds one straight away :-)

I don't think the bet is bad, I think it is more likely to be shorter than longer.  I think the race is quite likely to cut up, just think that is more likely to favour my bet than yours.  I think we could probably do both and hope for a 4 runner race!

St Nicholas Abbey now best 4/6.  Rich was correct, still think we could probably have done both.

Looking at the back side on Betfair and the last prices laid then the race does seem destined to have a small field.  Of the short priced horses, Dandino looks like a non starter, and there must be doubts on Imperial Monarch and Joshua Tree.  So the race could easily end up as SNA, Dunaden, Main Sequence, Very Nice Name and a couple of big rags.

Rain at Epsom today, so increasing the chance Dunaden runs.  Bet365 and Boylesports still offering 5/1 and fifth the odds first 3.  Would love to punish Boylesports, but they won't lay me a cent.

[superwomble]

Champions League final, official UEFA Man Of The Match.

Philip Lahm is generally about 20-25/1. BetVictor are as short as 12/1. But Coral are way out of line at 33/1.

Difficult market to win on of course but worth a little banzai for that value?

Bwin are now shortest at 14/1 but Coral are still at 33/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bor-dortmund-v-bayern-munich/man-of-the-match

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bor-dortmund-v-bayern-munich/to-win-to-nil

boylesports laying 5-1 bayern to win to nil

no brainer no idea what limits are though