Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Think the NBA bet last night should have been on Utah, not on total points. Without being an aftertimer, the logic was good, Utah were in form and needed to win to get to the playoffs (starting this weekend) and Phoenix had just missed the playoffs and left with nuthin to play for. Seems like they didn't try that hard and we missed the points spread. I say we...I backed Utah not the points

I like Washington at 4/5 tonight. They're the second worst team in the league, but have won 4 straight games now, and finally look to be clicking after some big trades have reshaped their team a month or so back. Cleveland have lost 5 of the last 6 and while they're at home, 5/6 is a nice price with the form of the two teams.

As an aside, I think I'll back Chicago at Indy, hoping the rumours that they will buck the trend to rest stars and will play their starters to get them some time toegther before the playoffs is true, and hope Indy do rest some, but that's a bit riskier. Might take a risk on Orlando to beat the Bobcats at 1/19 lol

I intended to do that, Jeff, but I cannot get 4/5, so I'll have to swerve it I'm afraid. Some bugger nicked all the 4/5 & I'll get too much flak if I take a bad price.

Next best seems to be 8/11, not much difference I guess, but I'd prefer 4/5. I'll keep an eye on the prices during the evening, & if I see 4/5, I'll get on.

  http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/washington-wizards-at-cleveland-cavaliers/winner

All these won, thank god u missed out so u can continue your moaning about NBA bets

Happy days!

I missed the 4/5, it was generally 4/6, but had Oddschecker open the entire evening, trying to see if the price moved out again. It reached 79/100 on Befair momentarily, but even that after commy is not so hot, but I swerved that too, hoping it would go 4/5 or better. Greed, & all that....

As the evening wore on, it got shorter & shorter - a good sign - but I was not prepared to back at those prices. Gotta keep the value discipline. 

Pleased for you, & everyone else that got on. One day I'll actually be in sync with you.....

[tikay]

Mlb tips for tonight

st louis to beat chicago cubs- main reason for this bet is lance lynn, moved from the bullpen and hes been awesome only only one run i in each of his first three starts against decent opposition
@4/6 with sky bet

washington to beat san diego- washington won there last three, season record won 13 lost 4, starting zimmerman who has pitched 7 innings in each of his last three start only allowing one run in each game
san diego won 5 lost 13 starting with wieland who had a good outing in his last game against phillies, but is very unexperienced and i believe zimmerman has the edge over him, so better pitcher and better batting lineup- win win
@ 10/13 sky bet

both these won
st louis 5-1
washington 7-2

Well done Singhy!

I only really want or or two a week MAX - more if they are great value, less if not, but I don't want to bet for the sake of it.

Find us ONE, or TWO really "good value" bets every week, & I'll marry you. (You can be Mum).

[Singheee]

Mlb tips for tonight

st louis to beat chicago cubs- main reason for this bet is lance lynn, moved from the bullpen and hes been awesome only only one run i in each of his first three starts against decent opposition
@4/6 with sky bet

washington to beat san diego- washington won there last three, season record won 13 lost 4, starting zimmerman who has pitched 7 innings in each of his last three start only allowing one run in each game
san diego won 5 lost 13 starting with wieland who had a good outing in his last game against phillies, but is very unexperienced and i believe zimmerman has the edge over him, so better pitcher and better batting lineup- win win
@ 10/13 sky bet

both these won
st louis 5-1
washington 7-2

Well done Singhy!

I only really want or or two a week MAX - more if they are great value, less if not, but I don't want to bet for the sake of it.

Find us ONE, or TWO really "good value" bets every week, & I'll marry you. (You can be Mum).

Fair enuff, if you want good value bets found one for 2nite,
boston red socks are playing against cws and trading at 109/100 with bet365 (maybe be better with pinnacle sports but i havent checked)

Thinking behind it cws pitcher mr humber has been on very good form, in his last start against a weak seattle side, he pitched a perfect game so no people on base throughout the game, the 21st perfect game in baseball
Now this is  massive thing for a pitcher, so im expecting mr humber has been very busy the last few days with interviews and probably have a few drinks to celebrate, so I think this would be a great time to back against him
Also cws has to go in the 14th inning last nite which will cause some tiredness
boston pitcher is average and has had a decent start to the year, boston also won there last 3

[tikay]

Mlb tips for tonight

st louis to beat chicago cubs- main reason for this bet is lance lynn, moved from the bullpen and hes been awesome only only one run i in each of his first three starts against decent opposition
@4/6 with sky bet

washington to beat san diego- washington won there last three, season record won 13 lost 4, starting zimmerman who has pitched 7 innings in each of his last three start only allowing one run in each game
san diego won 5 lost 13 starting with wieland who had a good outing in his last game against phillies, but is very unexperienced and i believe zimmerman has the edge over him, so better pitcher and better batting lineup- win win
@ 10/13 sky bet

both these won
st louis 5-1
washington 7-2

Well done Singhy!

I only really want or or two a week MAX - more if they are great value, less if not, but I don't want to bet for the sake of it.

Find us ONE, or TWO really "good value" bets every week, & I'll marry you. (You can be Mum).

Fair enuff, if you want good value bets found one for 2nite,
boston red socks are playing against cws and trading at 109/100 with bet365 (maybe be better with pinnacle sports but i havent checked)

Thinking behind it cws pitcher mr humber has been on very good form, in his last start against a weak seattle side, he pitched a perfect game so no people on base throughout the game, the 21st perfect game in baseball
Now this is  massive thing for a pitcher, so im expecting mr humber has been very busy the last few days with interviews and probably have a few drinks to celebrate, so I think this would be a great time to back against him
Also cws has to go in the 14th inning last nite which will cause some tiredness
boston pitcher is average and has had a decent start to the year, boston also won there last 3

OK, we'll get on that shortly, if I can get the price. Thanks, top man.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, 7.45am Thursday April 26th.

April invested = £3,564.86

April returned = £3,625.80

Profit in April (settled bets only) £495.94

Profit/Loss in April including unsettled bets £60.94 profit

Unsettled bets (all paid for in above) £435.

The up to date spreadsheet is here.....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=5

[tikay]

Daily Update, Thursday April 26th

We are on a bit of a heater right now, & had another good day.

We have a trading profit on the month so far of £495.94.

Even after taking the cost up front of £435 of "forward" (unsettled) bets we are still in proifit, so those bets are essentially all freerolls now.

Yesterday's highlight was the excellent price of 7/2 on Hawkins to beat Selby, which ended up 10-3 I think. We also made a nice profit on the Bayern Munich CL qualification, but that one went down to the wire. Big up to bobby & War.   

We only made two small investments yesterday - Dani Pedrosa in this Sunday's Spanish Moto GP, and Miss Hedwall in the non-gentleman's Golf, a real 33/1 Banzai, but a realistic hope nonetheless.

I continued my fine run of "missing" bets, but in the case of Jeff's one, I could not get the right price, so no regrets. I know it's only small money, & there is not a lot between 4/5 & 4/6 for £50 or £100, but I think "the right price" is key, & I plan to stick to that until someone proves it wrong. I'm a Premiership Grade Nit.

I also missed two winners from Singhee, but it is hard for me to assess "value" when there are 1 or 2 every day, & I much prefer his more selective ones, such as today's, which I will sort later. 

I may have missed some from Deano, too, I'm not sure.

I don't believe we have any interest in anything today, except Singhee's Baseball bet, so let's hope he gets a good result.

It's PL Darts tonight, but we have nothing lined up thus far.

Please note I am working tonight, & so will be Offline from 6pm until after Midnight. Keep the bets coming though, half of blonde get on them.

[tikay]

Read into this what you will, & of course "sample size" is key.

Since we began, until midnight last night, Football is far & away our biggest winner - net football winnings are now in excess of £1,000. To get that in context, the 2nd most profitable activity is horse racing, where we are ahead £162. (From very few bets, to be fair, & I missed Camel's coup last weekend).

We have had 72 bets on football, the next highest being horseracing, @ 19. 

Our biggest loser is Basketball, at £243, though after 2 losing months, Basketball is marginally in profit in April. It would have been more so if I had not missed last night's bet from Mr Kimber, of course. I blame Channing. We have had 12 Basketball bets.

A breakdown of each "sport" or activity, month by month, & in total, can be viewed under the "Sports" tab in the spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4
 

 

[tikay]

Mlb tips for tonight

st louis to beat chicago cubs- main reason for this bet is lance lynn, moved from the bullpen and hes been awesome only only one run i in each of his first three starts against decent opposition
@4/6 with sky bet

washington to beat san diego- washington won there last three, season record won 13 lost 4, starting zimmerman who has pitched 7 innings in each of his last three start only allowing one run in each game
san diego won 5 lost 13 starting with wieland who had a good outing in his last game against phillies, but is very unexperienced and i believe zimmerman has the edge over him, so better pitcher and better batting lineup- win win
@ 10/13 sky bet

both these won
st louis 5-1
washington 7-2

Well done Singhy!

I only really want or or two a week MAX - more if they are great value, less if not, but I don't want to bet for the sake of it.

Find us ONE, or TWO really "good value" bets every week, & I'll marry you. (You can be Mum).

Fair enuff, if you want good value bets found one for 2nite,
boston red socks are playing against cws and trading at 109/100 with bet365 (maybe be better with pinnacle sports but i havent checked)

Thinking behind it cws pitcher mr humber has been on very good form, in his last start against a weak seattle side, he pitched a perfect game so no people on base throughout the game, the 21st perfect game in baseball
Now this is  massive thing for a pitcher, so im expecting mr humber has been very busy the last few days with interviews and probably have a few drinks to celebrate, so I think this would be a great time to back against him
Also cws has to go in the 14th inning last nite which will cause some tiredness
boston pitcher is average and has had a decent start to the year, boston also won there last 3

We have £50 with Bet365 for this.

I have not got my PinnacleSports Account fully set up yet - they want all sorts of scanned ID & stuff, so might have missed better value.

I may also have learned a hard lesson, from inexperience, my bad, but the price is based upon "LISTED PITCHERS MUST START", being Doubront & Humber. I never realised this until AFTER I had placed the bet.  This is a new one on me - naivete ftw - but I'll have to watch for it in future.

Are we to assume we get refunded in full if either do NOT start? And what is the definition of "start"? Appear at ANY time in the ball game, or the original line-up? (If there is such a thing, pardon my ignorance).

Anyway.....

ON

£50 Bet 365 @ 109/100.


ON



(Felix Doubront & P Humber must start) BOS Red Sox @ 109/100
£50.00 Single

[hector62]

Being such a quiet betting morning, maybe you could answer a quick question.

Am I right to think that I have noticed a reluctance to bet against some of your favoured sides and sporting heroes? I thought I noticed it when you didn't take up my tip to back VJ Singh in the last round of the Masters against Tiger Woods. Then again when the Wigan bet against Arsenal was turned down, and I seem to recall you being big Arsene Wenger admirer.

My admiration for Mr Camel increased when he actually proffered a tip against the team he supported, being QPR, simply because the price was too good and they were playing like a bag of ****. I have a particular fondness for betting against English teams for the same reasons - price and the fact that the football team are woeful.

[Snowball]

Tighty, why don't the bookies price up the draw in the county matches??

[tikay]

Being such a quiet betting morning, maybe you could answer a quick question.

Am I right to think that I have noticed a reluctance to bet against some of your favoured sides and sporting heroes? I thought I noticed it when you didn't take up my tip to back VJ Singh in the last round of the Masters against Tiger Woods. Then again when the Wigan bet against Arsenal was turned down, and I seem to recall you being big Arsene Wenger admirer.

My admiration for Mr Camel increased when he actually proffered a tip against the team he supported, being QPR, simply because the price was too good and they were playing like a bag of ****. I have a particular fondness for betting against English teams for the same reasons - price and the fact that the football team are woeful.

Not at all, quite the opposite! Or at least, I hope not.

I prefer not to take tips from "homers", (say, Villa fans supporting a Villa bet for example), or at least I add a sort of mythical "discount" to their perceived value,  but as far as I am able, I try to be objective in every single case. I'm sure I fail sometimes though.

I can't recall specifically the 2 bets you mention, but I'm sure, or I hope, that I explained at the time, why I never bet them. I try to reply to, & give reasonings, behind EVERY tip Posted, even if it is just "I missed it". 

Sometimes we get "opposing" tips for the same event, too - I can't back both ways.

Quite the hardest part of the thread (for me) is "declining", without giving offence, a tip. Has to be done sometimes though. (See next post).

Yes, I admire Wenger, but I'm not one of these myopic football supporters who allow their fixation with their favourite team to rule their life, or cloud their judgement. I hope. I've not been to an Arsenal gane for 15 years or more, either.

Woods is NOT a "sporting hero" of mine. He was until "that matter" arose, & I still think he was the greatest golfer I ever seen. I also hope (in vain, I think) that he rediscovers his touch, & regains his previous form. But "Sporting Hero"? Not so much, no.  I could list 20 or more "sporting heroes", but Mr Woods would not be in the list. GREAT golfer though, or was, the very best in fact.

[TightEnd]

Tighty, why don't the bookies price up the draw in the county matches??

They often do

They won't when we are in Monsoon season.

In general volumes in county cricket betting are low (test matches, IPL, T20 high) so the firms aren't going to take big liabilities on draws in this weather when they can't hedge off.

[bobby1]

Hi Tony,

Aussie rules again for Fridays game between Freemantle and Carlton.

Freemantle's best player is missing so I suggest £60 on Carlton minus 2 1/2 at 5/6 with Paddy Power. It should prob be 5 or 6 + by kick off.

cheers

[Snowball]

Tighty, why don't the bookies price up the draw in the county matches??

They often do

They won't when we are in Monsoon season.

In general volumes in county cricket betting are low (test matches, IPL, T20 high) so the firms aren't going to take big liabilities on draws in this weather when they can't hedge off.

Thanks, thought as much.

[tikay]

Hi Tony,

Aussie rules again for Fridays game between Freemantle and Carlton.

Freemantle's best player is missing so I suggest £60 on Carlton minus 2 1/2 at 5/6 with Paddy Power. It should prob be 5 or 6 + by kick off.

cheers

Quick interruption to further reply to hector here....

We have £60 with Paddy Power @ 5/6, Carlton minus 2.5.

Thanks Phil.

ON


Bet Stake Fremantle v Carlton - Carlton @ 5/6 (-2.5)  -£60.00