Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Mlb tips for tonight

st louis to beat chicago cubs- main reason for this bet is lance lynn, moved from the bullpen and hes been awesome only only one run i in each of his first three starts against decent opposition
@4/6 with sky bet

washington to beat san diego- washington won there last three, season record won 13 lost 4, starting zimmerman who has pitched 7 innings in each of his last three start only allowing one run in each game
san diego won 5 lost 13 starting with wieland who had a good outing in his last game against phillies, but is very unexperienced and i believe zimmerman has the edge over him, so better pitcher and better batting lineup- win win
@ 10/13 sky bet

both these won
st louis 5-1
washington 7-2

Well done Singhy!

I only really want or or two a week MAX - more if they are great value, less if not, but I don't want to bet for the sake of it.

Find us ONE, or TWO really "good value" bets every week, & I'll marry you. (You can be Mum).

Fair enuff, if you want good value bets found one for 2nite,
boston red socks are playing against cws and trading at 109/100 with bet365 (maybe be better with pinnacle sports but i havent checked)

Thinking behind it cws pitcher mr humber has been on very good form, in his last start against a weak seattle side, he pitched a perfect game so no people on base throughout the game, the 21st perfect game in baseball
Now this is  massive thing for a pitcher, so im expecting mr humber has been very busy the last few days with interviews and probably have a few drinks to celebrate, so I think this would be a great time to back against him
Also cws has to go in the 14th inning last nite which will cause some tiredness
boston pitcher is average and has had a decent start to the year, boston also won there last 3

We have £50 with Bet365 for this.

I have not got my PinnacleSports Account fully set up yet - they want all sorts of scanned ID & stuff, so might have missed better value.

I may also have learned a hard lesson, from inexperience, my bad, but the price is based upon "LISTED PITCHERS MUST START", being Doubront & Humber. I never realised this until AFTER I had placed the bet.  This is a new one on me - naivete ftw - but I'll have to watch for it in future.

Are we to assume we get refunded in full if either do NOT start? And what is the definition of "start"? Appear at ANY time in the ball game, or the original line-up? (If there is such a thing, pardon my ignorance).

Anyway.....

ON

£50 Bet 365 @ 109/100.


ON



(Felix Doubront & P Humber must start) BOS Red Sox @ 109/100
£50.00 Single

Start means the pitcher must start the game. In the market you have selected then all bets are void should either of those pitchers not start and thats deffo the market you want to be in.

[tikay]

Thanks Phil, & Singhee. This is all new ground for me, & I never realised that when I placed the bet, or I would have referred back first.

[tikay]

Still with hector’s question here…..

Overall, in reply to your question, it's not easy to handle "that" side of this thread. Peeps are going to trouble to give me/us tips, & it would be so wrong to ignore them, or be, on occasion, a little abrupt. But I can't accept every one, or "bad prices". I deliberately missed Mr Kimbers bet last night because I missed the price. I believe that was correct, whatever the outcome.

Someone wrote to me yesterday, & articulated it better than I ever could,& he said something along these lines…..

Some of the best tips we have had, & more importantly, their justification, are the sort of "back to front" ones. Tighty identified a rule change & then worked from there. (Yes, the bet lost, but that’s irrelevant). Camel, or redarmi, spot a "situation", THEN go look at the price - NOT the other way round.  Dubai noted that there was a "Taylor Factor" in average scores, THEN looked at the prices. Or spotted that in Chelsea V Barca, the possession stats were SO lopsided, that "first card" was almost certain to go in one direction.

But that’s not to say that regular tips from recreational punters like you & I are not just as valid – they are.  They are ALL valid, but I can’t back every one.

Which brings us neatly onto to another matter…..

Volume, v “less is more”.

Some punters – good ones, too – like to punt a lot of bets, every day, sometimes 4, 5 or 6 every day. Which is fine, no argument.

Then there is the “less is more” grouping - & that, maybe for all the wrong reasons - includes me. I just don’t have the time to manage 5 or 6 bets per person per day, or the inclination, in truth, I’m very much inclined to be in the less is more camp.

But BOTH camps are valid, it seems to me.

And lots of people other than me punt off the recommends on this thread, so I hope they keep appearing. And I just have to walk that narrow line with some care, so as not to offend.

In the “volume bet” camp is horseplayer, who likes to punt lots of bets daily, which irons out his variance I assume. But he only puts them on this thread far & few between. Which, for me, is perfect.   

Does that all – or even any of it – make sense?

More & more, this thread is like a sort of betting PHA. I love it to death.

[horseplayer]

"In the “volume bet” camp is horseplayer, who likes to punt lots of bets daily, which irons out his variance I assume. But he only puts them on this thread far & few between. Which, for me, is perfect. "

i wish it did at present having a horror run!

good post though none the less this is a very good thread

[bobby1]

It's an interesting balance really coz of the bets I have I guess only a small % are considered as standout and therefore worthy of putting on here, some are just potential small edges or angles which you would need plenty of volume work thru.

Take the QPR bet you have for this Saturday, its unlikely to win but at the prices on offer after the Chelsea ch lge semi final it had more chance of winning than those odds suggested given what had just happened and both Red and I and plenty others will probably have had the same idea. That bet tho might be one of 5 or 6 footy releted bets this weekend tho, and will prob be the least likely to win, but its prob the game where we beat the price by the biggest % so in my mind that gets it as a bet on here as it will deffo be top value.

[tikay]

It's an interesting balance really coz of the bets I have I guess only a small % are considered as standout and therefore worthy of putting on here, some are just potential small edges or angles which you would need plenty of volume work thru.

Take the QPR bet you have for this Saturday, its unlikely to win but at the prices on offer after the Chelsea ch lge semi final it had more chance of winning than those odds suggested given what had just happened and both Red and I and plenty others will probably have had the same idea. That bet tho might be one of 5 or 6 footy releted bets this weekend tho, and will prob be the least likely to win, but its prob the game where we beat the price by the biggest % so in my mind that gets it as a bet on here as it will deffo be top value.

I guerss I'm a bit of a selfish so & so - I ONLY want the standout ones, both for me, & the thread!

MBN.

[bobby1]

It's an interesting balance really coz of the bets I have I guess only a small % are considered as standout and therefore worthy of putting on here, some are just potential small edges or angles which you would need plenty of volume work thru.

Take the QPR bet you have for this Saturday, its unlikely to win but at the prices on offer after the Chelsea ch lge semi final it had more chance of winning than those odds suggested given what had just happened and both Red and I and plenty others will probably have had the same idea. That bet tho might be one of 5 or 6 footy releted bets this weekend tho, and will prob be the least likely to win, but its prob the game where we beat the price by the biggest % so in my mind that gets it as a bet on here as it will deffo be top value.

I guerss I'm a bit of a selfish so & so - I ONLY want the standout ones, both for me, & the thread!

MBN.

lol, you have turned yourself into a big daddy!!

http://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Smart_Money.html?id=QrFr8w0hczsC&redir_esc=y

If you don't have that book Tony I suggest you will love reading it and it will make your trip to Vegas more fun when you are sending runners to the C Palace sportsbook to get your baseball bets on!

[tikay]

It's an interesting balance really coz of the bets I have I guess only a small % are considered as standout and therefore worthy of putting on here, some are just potential small edges or angles which you would need plenty of volume work thru.

Take the QPR bet you have for this Saturday, its unlikely to win but at the prices on offer after the Chelsea ch lge semi final it had more chance of winning than those odds suggested given what had just happened and both Red and I and plenty others will probably have had the same idea. That bet tho might be one of 5 or 6 footy releted bets this weekend tho, and will prob be the least likely to win, but its prob the game where we beat the price by the biggest % so in my mind that gets it as a bet on here as it will deffo be top value.

I guerss I'm a bit of a selfish so & so - I ONLY want the standout ones, both for me, & the thread!

MBN.

lol, you have turned yourself into a big daddy!!

http://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Smart_Money.html?id=QrFr8w0hczsC&redir_esc=y

If you don't have that book Tony I suggest you will love reading it and it will make your trip to Vegas more fun when you are sending runners to the C Palace sportsbook to get your baseball bets on!

No, I don't think I do have that book. I will be this time next week though. Wanna bet?

[bobby1]

It's an interesting balance really coz of the bets I have I guess only a small % are considered as standout and therefore worthy of putting on here, some are just potential small edges or angles which you would need plenty of volume work thru.

Take the QPR bet you have for this Saturday, its unlikely to win but at the prices on offer after the Chelsea ch lge semi final it had more chance of winning than those odds suggested given what had just happened and both Red and I and plenty others will probably have had the same idea. That bet tho might be one of 5 or 6 footy releted bets this weekend tho, and will prob be the least likely to win, but its prob the game where we beat the price by the biggest % so in my mind that gets it as a bet on here as it will deffo be top value.

I guerss I'm a bit of a selfish so & so - I ONLY want the standout ones, both for me, & the thread!

MBN.

lol, you have turned yourself into a big daddy!!

http://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Smart_Money.html?id=QrFr8w0hczsC&redir_esc=y

If you don't have that book Tony I suggest you will love reading it and it will make your trip to Vegas more fun when you are sending runners to the C Palace sportsbook to get your baseball bets on!

No, I don't think I do have that book. I will be this time next week though. Wanna bet?

Its just a great insight into how the big syndicates get on, how much trouble they have getting on and how they work the runners.

My fav bit is when the hero is sitting in his front room contemplating how many bets he is trying to get on for his 'firm', he spots a bird in his back garden and takes out his bino's to get a closer look. As he is looking at the bird he spots a car opposite his house with a man sitting in the front seat looking at him thru a pair of bino's. When the guy in the car realises he has been spotted he speeds away never to be seen again.

He isn't sure if it is his firm spying on him  making sure he isn't passing on his info, the sportsbooks keeping tabs on him to see who he is getting his info from. The FBI or just some wierdo.

[horseplayer]

not putting it as a tip per say but TIGERINO is very solid in the next at wolves at around 5-1

two runs here are very solid form (especially the last one) and the rivals are not a big worry to me...

[smashedagain]

The work load for you as more and more tips keep getting suggested must be massive. I appreciate with a lot of the prices you have to ask but I seem to remember at the start the bets were going to be vetted by a select committee. Is this still not the case?

[horseplayer]

shocking run shocking bet

[horseplayer]

i like goldstorm and elijah pepper later on today as well

[typhoon13]

i like goldstorm and elijah pepper later on today as well

horseplayer

Don't you have your own thread for this kind of horse tipping

[The Camel]

The days of pros have a tiny amount of bets are long gone imo.

20 years ago, pros could ignore bets which offered a small ROI and waited for juicy spots with massive edges.

Now, because of betfair telling the world what the correct price is (near enough anyway) and the difficulty getting bets on, you need to have loads of bets with tiny edges to earn a fraction of the income you could make in days gone by.