Tips for Tikay

[aaron1867]

Northern Ireland winning 2-0 at home to Russia, playing well according to what I am reading, with a good record at home. I think Fred is going to miss, but they are at EVS....

its 1-0....

I have just realised, but it is showing up as 2-0 on William Hill & I lumped on, erm...

[tikay]

Northern Ireland winning 2-0 at home to Russia, playing well according to what I am reading, with a good record at home. I think Fred is going to miss, but they are at EVS....

Best I can see is 3/4.

[horseplayer]

dont have to bet everything that moves Aaron!

good game continues Russia really pressing now N ireland defending well

[aaron1867]

dont have to bet everything that moves Aaron!

good game continues Russia really pressing now N ireland defending well

Aye, not betting on much, watching game and working, can't find a strem for NI game though

[horseplayer]

dont have to bet everything that moves Aaron!

good game continues Russia really pressing now N ireland defending well

Aye, not betting on much, watching game and working, can't find a strem for NI game though

pm sent sir

[cheapwetsuit]

I have been looking through some hefty bunker bets for tomorrow's internationals, but had a look at the correct scores market for the very short priced teams and there doesn't even seem to be much big prices, even for such games as Licheinstein v Croatia, and they are 2/17.

But found some interesting spots for some decent sweats.

Chile have named a pretty strong team for their 'home' game against Iraq tomorrow. Chile very close to qualification for Brazil and Iraq already confirmed no chance of been seen in Brazil. Chile sit in 21st in the rankings, whilst Iraq a lowly 104th. It is of course very likely going to be a Chile win, but by how many? Looking through the other markets for "big wins" on short prices doesn't offer such prices as these ones & I think we have a very good opportunity here. Iraw not been up against a high ranked team for quite a while, lost by the odd goal to the Aussies, twice, however looking at recent results it seems they don't find the net that often, even against teams of a similar quality.

Therefore I recc a small interest in Chile to win 5-0 & 6-0.

5-0 is 40's with Stan James (lol)- 43's with You Win (?)

6-0 is 80's witj Stan James (lol) - 167/2 with YouWin (?)

aaron, this is looking like a great pick but can you please ask Chile to slow down?

After 44mins it is already 4-0!!!

I have a small interest on 5-0 and 6-0 at 40s and 80s thanks to you.

You can bet about 11/4 over 6.5 goals on Betfair as a hedge as I type.

Great tippage, Aaron. I went for a run at half time, so gladly didn't have to sweat out the result. Thanks to Joe too for recommending the hedge. Ended up giving a bit back, but still well up. Well done, sirs.

PS. Is it possible the Iraq football team read TfT?

[bobby1]

well done Aaron, not a lot of love going round at the mo.

Tony,

If you fancied a speculative bet in the golf I was a bit surprised to see Chris Stroud twice the price of some golfers I wouldn't back with counterfeit in this weeks US event. These are the reason why, his course form here reads 73 mc mc mc mc and his last two starts on tour are mc mc but those recent missed cuts were by 2 shots in Canada and 1 shots in the PGA last week. His form prior to that was very good, including those mc he has had 3 top ten finishes in his last 7 events and was beaten in a play off in one of those and one of the reasons for that form is he is a  different man this year after doing a lot of work which is why that previous course form might not be worth much. He has the look of a 'could win soon'

Anyway, it is speculative but I think a little recency is in a lot of the prices in this event, the top end of the market look strong and a lot in the middle of it look under priced to me. He is 150 on Bf, 152 on Betdaq or if you would rather be on each way he is 125 fixed odds. Of course he might just hate the track and I'm being kind to the previous record and there will be plenty of rain around but might be worth a small bet.

cheers

[redarmi]

We need to bet the Dolphins to win AFC East at 9/2.  Apparently Brady has hurt his knee.  No idea if they are the best bet of the rest but they are shortest so it is decent.

[tikay]

We need to bet the Dolphins to win AFC East at 9/2.  Apparently Brady has hurt his knee.  No idea if they are the best bet of the rest but they are shortest so it is decent.

On like a shot, thanks Stu. I assume Brady is a Patriot?

We have £40 @ 9/2, BerFred, Miami Dolphins to win AFC East

ON

Bet placed, its reference is 153/163



Bet ref: 153/163 £40.00 Single


AFC East Division
AFC East Winner
Miami Dolphins 9/2  

Total stake
£ 40.00

Estimated return
£ 220.00





Full stake
£ 40.00

Full estimated return
£ 220.00

[tikay]

well done Aaron, not a lot of love going round at the mo.

Tony,

If you fancied a speculative bet in the golf I was a bit surprised to see Chris Stroud twice the price of some golfers I wouldn't back with counterfeit in this weeks US event. These are the reason why, his course form here reads 73 mc mc mc mc and his last two starts on tour are mc mc but those recent missed cuts were by 2 shots in Canada and 1 shots in the PGA last week. His form prior to that was very good, including those mc he has had 3 top ten finishes in his last 7 events and was beaten in a play off in one of those and one of the reasons for that form is he is a  different man this year after doing a lot of work which is why that previous course form might not be worth much. He has the look of a 'could win soon'

Anyway, it is speculative but I think a little recency is in a lot of the prices in this event, the top end of the market look strong and a lot in the middle of it look under priced to me. He is 150 on Bf, 152 on Betdaq or if you would rather be on each way he is 125 fixed odds. Of course he might just hate the track and I'm being kind to the previous record and there will be plenty of rain around but might be worth a small bet.

cheers

Thanks Phil.

Let us hope "soon" is "very soon". Like, this weekend. Proper banzai, that. Fingers crossed.

We have £10 EW @ 125/1, Betfred, (qtr, 1,2,3,4,5), Chris Stroud, Wyndham Golf Thing.

ON


14/08/2013 19:45:55  152/
162  W:10.00 P:10.00  Single  Wyndham Championship - Outright/Tournament Outright  Stroud, Chris   125/1  Open  O  £20.00  £0.00 

[redarmi]

We need to bet the Dolphins to win AFC East at 9/2.  Apparently Brady has hurt his knee.  No idea if they are the best bet of the rest but they are shortest so it is decent.

On like a shot, thanks Stu. I assume Brady is a Patriot?

We have £40 @ 9/2, BerFred, Miami Dolphins to win AFC East

ON

Bet placed, its reference is 153/163



Bet ref: 153/163 £40.00 Single


AFC East Division
AFC East Winner
Miami Dolphins 9/2  

Total stake
£ 40.00

Estimated return
£ 220.00





Full stake
£ 40.00

Full estimated return
£ 220.00

It is by no means certain he will miss games but it is the knee he injured the other season and missed it.  The Dolphins will be a fraction of the price they are now if Brady is out.

[tikay]

We need to bet the Dolphins to win AFC East at 9/2.  Apparently Brady has hurt his knee.  No idea if they are the best bet of the rest but they are shortest so it is decent.

On like a shot, thanks Stu. I assume Brady is a Patriot?

We have £40 @ 9/2, BerFred, Miami Dolphins to win AFC East

ON

Bet placed, its reference is 153/163



Bet ref: 153/163 £40.00 Single


AFC East Division
AFC East Winner
Miami Dolphins 9/2  

Total stake
£ 40.00

Estimated return
£ 220.00





Full stake
£ 40.00

Full estimated return
£ 220.00

It is by no means certain he will miss games but it is the knee he injured the other season and missed it.  The Dolphins will be a fraction of the price they are now if Brady is out.

Seems a good bet to me, we are semi-freerolling, & we should never fear one team if we get the right price.

[Tal]

Bills seem likely to be starting their new rookie QB, EJ Manuel (ees no from Barcelona, before you ask). He had a good game on paper in pre-season the other day, but I think he was flattered by the numbers.

The Bleacher Report is barely even English:

A rookie quarterback generally isn't expected to be able to throw the entire route tree (unless his name is Andrew Luck), but Manuel didn't even throw half of it.

Most of his throws were on slant routes, curl routes and dump-offs. None of his passes traveled more than 17 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Here are the routes (let us not forget, pronounced like you're routing a piece of pine):

Click to see full-size image.

In short, we'll be competitive but not good enough. Dolphins seem to my ice cream eyes to be the only genuine contenders for the division, or it'll be a procession for the Pats.

Are there better divisions for value bets, tho?

[tikay]

Route trees & dump offs though.

[Doobs]

I got a bit of spare time earlier so had a look at the future book.

Think we have a pleasant surprise, though my book looks a bit crap, several other people's look a bit better.  

Of the biggies:
All our Big Brother bets seem to be on at good prices.  
Tampa Bay Rays are still shorter everywhere than when we put our bets on.
The Red Sox bet is looking even better, we backed at 4/1 and they are now 4/6.
We have a lot of good cricket bets; Michael Clarke, Northants, Middlesex, Graeme Swann and Essex; together mean our cricket book is probably worth nearly £300 more than it cost us in bets.
Our Watford bets are also worth about £100 more than we placed on them.

All in all, I am fairly sure our forward book is worth several hundred quid more than we placed in bets.  All we need now is for somebody to win Big Brother and we are quids in.

Well done fellas.