Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

A friend of mine in the bookmaking industry has asked me to make a ten minute video for their website. It will be a Cheltenham preview and I'm going to do a few. I thought I'd start with the Champion Hurdle as we are still a fair way from the meeting and I felt this was one where we pretty much know who will turn up (with one obvious exception). I think I have a view which I'll share here later, but does anyone have any strong thoughts at the current prices?

 (obviously the last four words are key and I could see the argument for saying the prices are correct and there is no value, is that the case is my question).

Lord Grumpy of Channington has friends in the bookmaking industry?

Fabrice will not be impressed.

[sonour]

If a Brazilian scores in the Chelsea Man City match Badbrokes will refund all losing correct score, first goal scorer and scorecast bets.

http://www.ladbrokes.com/tc/brazil/

[BigAdz]

A friend of mine in the bookmaking industry has asked me to make a ten minute video for their website. It will be a Cheltenham preview and I'm going to do a few. I thought I'd start with the Champion Hurdle as we are still a fair way from the meeting and I felt this was one where we pretty much know who will turn up (with one obvious exception). I think I have a view which I'll share here later, but does anyone have any strong thoughts at the current prices?

 (obviously the last four words are key and I could see the argument for saying the prices are correct and there is no value, is that the case is my question).

This is potentially the best CH for years, and rather you than me trying to pin this one down.

With the make up of the race, the tactics, especially the ground, still up in the air it's a real puzzler.

A couple of points I would make;

The Fly seems better the softer it is, I don't think it's any coincidence he got beat on quicker ground in 2012 and got his crown back in 2013 when it was probably the softest CH ground for a long while(despite what the going report said). I think he just quickens best in softer ground, so a slowish race in soft ground is right up his street, as he has proven time and again he quickens up in the soft.

I see the pace being made by Un de S and Thousand Stars with Our conor tucked in behind. I can see AP and Ruby spending too  much time worried about each other while side by side towards the back, and at the bottom of the hill, OC kicking on and stealing enough rope to win.

The ending may be different but it's how I visualize the race based on the races the protagonists have run at Chelts previously.

The fly in the ointment is Annie Power. If she runs, I think they will all be far more cautious and they will all be a lot closer to the pace, that she surely has to set. Then who knows.

Fwiw I don't see The Fly beating this lot. I love My Tent, and my real hope is that Hendo is plotting the entire season round the festivals because his horses are alarmingly quiet so far this year. My head said after he got outstayed by C Fever last year he didn't have the stamina to win a CH, but my heart is with him.

The New One has always looked a stayer to be and rock solid for the frame, but I can't have him, as I think whichever ground it is someone will have too much speed for him. He was outpaced in the Neptune last year at a stage that makes me worry about a CH candidate.

I haven't backed him, but keep coming back to Our Connor, especially when I watch repeats of his Triumph victory last year, which was awesome. His campaign seems to be geared totally towards the CH and he got very close to The Fly last time, when clearly undercooked.

In terms of value. I don't see much. If anything I can see it cutting up and we maybe get a sub 8 field so some ew thieving maybe order of the day.

Good Luck Neil.

[Omm]

A friend of mine in the bookmaking industry has asked me to make a ten minute video for their website. It will be a Cheltenham preview and I'm going to do a few. I thought I'd start with the Champion Hurdle as we are still a fair way from the meeting and I felt this was one where we pretty much know who will turn up (with one obvious exception). I think I have a view which I'll share here later, but does anyone have any strong thoughts at the current prices?

 (obviously the last four words are key and I could see the argument for saying the prices are correct and there is no value, is that the case is my question).

This is potentially the best CH for years, and rather you than me trying to pin this one down.

With the make up of the race, the tactics, especially the ground, still up in the air it's a real puzzler.

A couple of points I would make;

The Fly seems better the softer it is, I don't think it's any coincidence he got beat on quicker ground in 2012 and got his crown back in 2013 when it was probably the softest CH ground for a long while(despite what the going report said). I think he just quickens best in softer ground, so a slowish race in soft ground is right up his street, as he has proven time and again he quickens up in the soft.

I see the pace being made by Un de S and Thousand Stars with Our conor tucked in behind. I can see AP and Ruby spending too  much time worried about each other while side by side towards the back, and at the bottom of the hill, OC kicking on and stealing enough rope to win.

The ending may be different but it's how I visualize the race based on the races the protagonists have run at Chelts previously.

The fly in the ointment is Annie Power. If she runs, I think they will all be far more cautious and they will all be a lot closer to the pace, that she surely has to set. Then who knows.

Fwiw I don't see The Fly beating this lot. I love My Tent, and my real hope is that Hendo is plotting the entire season round the festivals because his horses are alarmingly quiet so far this year. My head said after he got outstayed by C Fever last year he didn't have the stamina to win a CH, but my heart is with him.

The New One has always looked a stayer to be and rock solid for the frame, but I can't have him, as I think whichever ground it is someone will have too much speed for him. He was outpaced in the Neptune last year at a stage that makes me worry about a CH candidate.

I haven't backed him, but keep coming back to Our Connor, especially when I watch repeats of his Triumph victory last year, which was awesome. His campaign seems to be geared totally towards the CH and he got very close to The Fly last time, when clearly undercooked.

In terms of value. I don't see much. If anything I can see it cutting up and we maybe get a sub 8 field so some ew thieving maybe order of the day.

Good Luck Neil.

 

Great write up Adz, some real fantastic thinking and plenty of reasoning behind your thoughts. I for one would certainly appreciate a couple more of these for a few of the main races, obviously by no means expected and very cheeky of me to ask so no issues if you don't, just really looking forward to the festival and want to enjoy it with even more knowledge and opportunities.

One love 

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month -£74.04

Outstanding Bets £3353.67

Free Bets to Use ONE William Hill by Saturday
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=19


A loss of £20 yesterday as Monfils was beaten in straight sets by JMDP.

Various activity on long term bets

Pride of place to Paulinho, who once again went over the half-way line and notched his fourth goals of the season with a tap in from a keeper rebound. We need over 5.5 goals for the season so two more in the remaining 12 games

Arsenal's draw with Man U and Liverpool's last gasp win at Fulham really closed up the battle for the top three, which we need Arsenal to achieve to land that bet. Looks like that one may go to the wire

Sturridge notched in his eighth successive game. Now has 16 league goals to Suarez's 23. Time for Luis to come to the party again....

Not the best night for the Newcastle Premier League handicap bet, or my wallet.

In the Winter Olympics Eve Muirhead and team lost yesterday and won today. All about getting to the final four. I have a crush on the third curler Anna Sloan. You all needed to know that

Meanwhile in Pretoria the SA decision to insert the opposition on winning the toss did backfire with Aus 343 for 6 and to my mind favourites now. Should have read TforT.



- note. I should take the losses on Liverpool bottom half and Southampton relegation? Prudent?  Or wait til 100% certain?

[tikay]

note. I should take the losses on Liverpool bottom half and Southampton relegation? Prudent?  Or wait til 100% certain?


I do like the idea of prudent accounting Rich.

But if we do, where do we draw the line? (With other bets).

And it does make the monthly numbers technically false, too.

I have a completely open mind on this, & my gut instinct is to take losses & hold profits, standard business procedure. But this is not straightforward.

Be interested in Mere & CO Doobs views, & everyone else, too.

[TightEnd]

Not to step on Rubbish's toes, but I have a lot of sources collected for good photos. Shame to waste them

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Please keep your photo-galleries coming Rich, the more the merrier, they are becoming part of the whole Fred experience now, & are very important.

[TightEnd]

note. I should take the losses on Liverpool bottom half and Southampton relegation? Prudent?  Or wait til 100% certain?


I do like the idea of prudent accounting Rich.

But if we do, where do we draw the line? (With other bets).

And it does make the monthly numbers technically false, too.

I have a completely open mind on this, & my gut instinct is to take losses & hold profits, standard business procedure. But this is not straightforward.

Be interested in Mere & CO Doobs views, & everyone else, too.

Mere would wait til 100% certain, which is the practice I adopt.

Just wondering if that can be thought through again not least because I am reporting on lost positions for no real use. From a writers perspective I would prefer to move on

Admin probity is more important though

[tikay]

Did Mr G get booked for this?

If so, might it count towards a suspension, & him missing a game(s)?

If so, would he get paid during his absence?

Would the Club fine him his full wages for the period he is absent?

In theory, that act of stupidity COULD cost Liverpool a CL spot, or even the PL title. It really could.

Whether the rule is right or wrong is wholly irrelevant, the rule is there, end of story.

A Fulham player did the same thing, & got himself Booked. That could mean the difference between Fulham staying up, or being relegated, which has the potential - literally - to make tens of £illions difference to the Club.  

Honestly, if I were their Managers, I'd have them shot.

[tikay]

note. I should take the losses on Liverpool bottom half and Southampton relegation? Prudent?  Or wait til 100% certain?


I do like the idea of prudent accounting Rich.

But if we do, where do we draw the line? (With other bets).

And it does make the monthly numbers technically false, too.

I have a completely open mind on this, & my gut instinct is to take losses & hold profits, standard business procedure. But this is not straightforward.

Be interested in Mere & CO Doobs views, & everyone else, too.

Mere would wait til 100% certain, which is the practice I adopt.

Just wondering if that can be thought through again not least because I am reporting on lost positions for no real use. From a writers perspective I would prefer to move on

Admin probity is more important though

It's a very fair question Rich, & there is no perfect answer.

Be good to hear views, though.

[Tonji]

Mini update on tomorrows Mens Super Combined.

Fred's man Alexis Pinturault is now 5/2 favourite, we have 11/2.

Solid still in downhill training, will be relying on his superior slalom skills in the final run. Hopefully!

[superwomble]

Did Mr G get booked for this?

If so, might it count towards a suspension, & him missing a game(s)?

If so, would he get paid during his absence?

Would the Club fine him his full wages for the period he is absent?

In theory, that act of stupidity COULD cost Liverpool a CL spot, or even the PL title. It really could.

Whether the rule is right or wrong is wholly irrelevant, the rule is there, end of story.

A Fulham player did the same thing, & got himself Booked. That could mean the difference between Fulham staying up, or being relegated, which has the potential - literally - to make tens of £illions difference to the Club.  

Honestly, if I were their Managers, I'd have them shot.

He did indeed get booked for this, and I whole-heartedly agree with you.

[tikay]

Did Mr G get booked for this?

If so, might it count towards a suspension, & him missing a game(s)?

If so, would he get paid during his absence?

Would the Club fine him his full wages for the period he is absent?

In theory, that act of stupidity COULD cost Liverpool a CL spot, or even the PL title. It really could.

Whether the rule is right or wrong is wholly irrelevant, the rule is there, end of story.

A Fulham player did the same thing, & got himself Booked. That could mean the difference between Fulham staying up, or being relegated, which has the potential - literally - to make tens of £illions difference to the Club.  

Honestly, if I were their Managers, I'd have them shot.

He did indeed get booked for this, and I whole-heartedly agree with you.

Well that is a ridiculous act of wanton stupidity on his part.

[Omm]

Please keep your photo-galleries coming Rich, the more the merrier, they are becoming part of the whole Fred experience now, & are very important.

Agree with this, plenty of people have put up some great galleries, I say the more the merrier and never apologise.