Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

GB lose in the curling.  Presumably this means we likely get a tough semi against one of the top 2 teams?  Anybody confirm this?

I looked up 2010 and it appears to be different than i thought it was. 1v4 2v3 with 1 & 2 having the hammer. Finishing 3 isn't a huge deal.

Missed the game today but i hear it was a good game and Eve went for it rather than take an easy tie break with Canada having advantage.

We're still ok but i guess it'd be a mucher bigger price if backing now

Sandy

That is how I read it, but know you'd said previously iit was 3 vs 4, so thought I might have misunderstood what the semi final was.

Cheers

[aaron1867]

I think people are starting to think Wednesday are some sort of decent Championship team now we've started picking up a few point, but I think we have been really lucky to get some of them & they have hardly come against amazing opposition.

Beat Reading 3-0 - But they had a player sent off, which has now been overturned.

Beat Barnsley 1-0 in injury time - They was down to 9 & we wasn't amazing value for that win.

Leeds 6-0 - Did deserve this win, but again down to 10

Then lately had wins v Macclesfield, Rochdale & Blackpool........ Hardly amazing teams tbh.

We have Charlton in home in the FA Cup, they are priced 3/1 (BV) to win & I don't mind a punt on the price, especially after we was thrashed last night by Wigan too. If this is 11v11, expect a very close match!

[redarmi]

Ant, not sure where to point you as regards compiling a book. As far as horseracing is concerned, it's largely down to feel. Anyone with a decent knowledge of racing should be able to spent half an hour on any race and come up with a respectable tissue.

Whether the industry compiler(s) comes up with the same is a different matter.

Not sure if it's the same with football, though, as I'd imagine it's far more formulaic?

A good start for football is Kevin Pulleins Racing Post book on football betting.   Pullein gets a lot of criticism for almost never ever putting up a bet in his Post column but he is very good on the basics.  The best approach is to come up with some form of power ratings of your own that you can turn into probabilities.  There are literally hundreds of ways of doing this and whilst the most scientific/mathematical like those used by mssrs Bloom and Benham are probably marginally the best almost all of them are workable.  Get a copy of Racing and Football Outlook and take a look at Alex Deacons in there which are fine.  The key is to take them and then apply the subjective reasoning like injuries, motivations etc.  The general consensus is that the market is very hard to beat these days but I don't really agree.  I find bets in the Premiership almost every week and the lower leagues have some great bets imo especially if you dont need to bet too much.  At the end of the day the bookies between them (and Betfair) bet to 101% on almost every game and often less.  You really don't need to know that much to overcome that margin.

[jakally]

I think people are starting to think Wednesday are some sort of decent Championship team now we've started picking up a few point, but I think we have been really lucky to get some of them & they have hardly come against amazing opposition.

Beat Reading 3-0 - But they had a player sent off, which has now been overturned.

Beat Barnsley 1-0 in injury time - They was down to 9 & we wasn't amazing value for that win.

Leeds 6-0 - Did deserve this win, but again down to 10

Then lately had wins v Macclesfield, Rochdale & Blackpool........ Hardly amazing teams tbh.

We have Charlton in home in the FA Cup, they are priced 3/1 (BV) to win & I don't mind a punt on the price, especially after we was thrashed last night by Wigan too. If this is 11v11, expect a very close match!

Don't know how the managers will approach this regarding line ups / changes, but if both are at full strength can't have Charlton at 3/1. Wednesday are closer to being a bet at the current prices imo.

[TightEnd]

I can accept Sheff Wed have been flattered by a recent run, but Charlton? Not much to recommend them is there?

[TightEnd]

tikay is back with his tip of the week

[Tal]

Spurs seem to have decided to play four central midfielders and Lennon today, with Naughton providing the hands over eyes moments at left back.

Meanwhile, Newcastle have abandoned their obligatory - obligatory - 4-4-2 in favour of what seems to be a 4-3-3.

Not much competition as to what is first on MOTD tonight...


Last spurs player to score a winner at St James's?

Click to see full-size image.

[horseplayer]

Paul Jewell used to be a manager

Inspirational on tv not

[Ironside]

ok this weekend see the FA cup coming back into play

city arsenal Chelsea and Liverpool all play each other so 2 of them are going out
but all of them have bigger fish to fry anyway
everton are also going to be more concerned with trying to get in top 4 than they would be with FA cup

Sunderland Hull Cardiff and Swansea are all in a relegation dogfight and FA cup will be way down on there list of priorities

leaving just Southampton of the premier with nothing to play for apart from FA cup
yeah obviously they are still a couple of points away from officially being safe but most bookies aren't offering odds on them going down now

the saints have given the top 5 teams still left in the FA cup good close games this season and with them likely to be putting out
there strongest team in the cup i think the 15.0 available at ladbrookes is value (only 10.0 at stan james and 11.0 at billy hills,coral and sky)

ok its known i am a saints fan and i have rose tinted specs on
i would recommend £5 or £10 to win @ 15.0 but would love some back from the elders
or even a knock back or 2

I quite like this. Certainly a team that could do well, good defence, no Europe to worry about, goals up top, young/hungry players

No Idea if 15 is value, but for small money I don't mind


currently the thread has

May-2014   Football   FA Cup   Chelsea   6/1   25            free bet

which got a tough draw in the 5th round!

anyone else got any views?
think the 2 postponed leagues games helps this bet

[Tal]

Paulinhoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!


(4 for the season now, btw)

[horseplayer]

gwan paulinho

[horseplayer]

Helen Mayo ‏@efc_helenmayo  52m
Roberto and Leighton share a joke with @ric_wee pic.twitter.com/mmRfSRh74V




Malaysian fan who has been following them for 30 years gone to first game tonight, good stuff from Everton

[Ant040689]

ok this weekend see the FA cup coming back into play

city arsenal Chelsea and Liverpool all play each other so 2 of them are going out
but all of them have bigger fish to fry anyway
everton are also going to be more concerned with trying to get in top 4 than they would be with FA cup

Sunderland Hull Cardiff and Swansea are all in a relegation dogfight and FA cup will be way down on there list of priorities

leaving just Southampton of the premier with nothing to play for apart from FA cup
yeah obviously they are still a couple of points away from officially being safe but most bookies aren't offering odds on them going down now

the saints have given the top 5 teams still left in the FA cup good close games this season and with them likely to be putting out
there strongest team in the cup i think the 15.0 available at ladbrookes is value (only 10.0 at stan james and 11.0 at billy hills,coral and sky)

ok its known i am a saints fan and i have rose tinted specs on
i would recommend £5 or £10 to win @ 15.0 but would love some back from the elders
or even a knock back or 2

I quite like this. Certainly a team that could do well, good defence, no Europe to worry about, goals up top, young/hungry players

No Idea if 15 is value, but for small money I don't mind


currently the thread has

May-2014   Football   FA Cup   Chelsea   6/1   25            free bet

which got a tough draw in the 5th round!

anyone else got any views?
think the 2 postponed leagues games helps this bet

I like it for the price.

[Tal]

Anyone on the chess bet for Lev Aronian to win the Candidates Tournament, starting a month today, might need some help getting to sleep be interested to read that the draw has been done for the fixtures:

http://en.chessbase.com/post/pairings-for-candidates-tournament-published

With four of the eight players being Russian (in the modern definition; there's two others who would have been in the old USSR), it has been decided that they must play each other in the first few rounds, so that they can't have any direct influence on the key games (like losing on purpose to send a comrade through to the world championship match - Bobby Fischer would be delighted to learn of this rule).

Our man starts with black against the former champion, Vishy Anand, which could certainly be worse, although there are no easy games.

Tie breaks are worthy of note:

1. Head to head results
2. Number of wins (this got Carlsen through last time)
3. Sonneborn-Berger system (proper Tighty job, that)

Number of wins favours the more aggressive players and Aronian fits that criterion.

I'll save my rant about the no draws allowed inside 30 moves rule for the Chess Thread or another time at least. You've suffered enough.

[redarmi]

think the 2 postponed leagues games helps this bet

Why?