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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13330251 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #71490 on: March 18, 2014, 11:42:30 AM »

I hope no offence was taken at my previous post but Tikay has himself in the past suggested one of the reasons he ias adverse to taking long term positions is you don't know what's round the corner, well that's how I read it.  
Anyway, back to the matter in hand making money.  

Followers on here may recall that I suggested laying rangers in their home game against Albion Rovers a week or so ago.  I thought the 1.09 was way too short given how they had been playing and struggling at ibrox in recent games. Although winning they had conceded many a soft goal.  On the road they are notably better and don't seem to concede the silly goals as much.  

Tonight they are playing Albion in the replay.   The game is not being played at Cliftonhill which is the home stadium of Rovers so they won't have any sort of home field advantage.  

I expect that the Rangers will come through the tie this evening reasonably unscathed and think they will prove far too powerful for the Rovers tonight.  I think the Euphoria of the upset at Ibrox will be too much for Rovers to handle and despite the fact they rested almost their whole first team at the weekend I expect this will be to their detriment.  

Having a look at the betfair prices and the sportsbooks I think there is a smidge of value in backing  the Rangers -2 @ 11/10 on betfair.  Realistically I think this game will be dead and burried by halftime and would be surprised if Rangers don't win by 4 or 5 this evening.  

You read it perfectly. No offence whatsoever, I promise. Its a fact of life, I think about it every day. Not with sadness, or fear, it's just a fact.

A horse was put up here last week for Cheltenham 2015. And my immediate reaction was 33/1 for the horse to win the Champion Hurdle in 2015, but what price me still being around? I'd not much like a winning bet to be left with the Bookie.

In fact, an Actuary - do we have an Actuary here? - could probably give me a price. I'm 67, never eat veg, have smoked since I was 15, am overweight, eat bad food, & work & worry too much. Can't be much more than 7/2. If you can get 5/1, might be worth a small interest. (Win only).

Will look at that Rangers game shortly, for Rangers -2.

Thanks.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/26521953

Don't bother looking it was last night and finished 2-0 rangers so nothing missed but a refund if the -2 was an asian hcap.  Given they were 1/7 for the game i imagine it was a 3way hcap price in which case we dodged a loser as the -2 was effectively -2.5.
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cheapwetsuit
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« Reply #71491 on: March 18, 2014, 11:43:51 AM »

Not a lot in the cycling market today, final stage of Tirreno Adriatico (today) is a short time trial which Tony Martin should and almost certainly will win.  If this goes to form I would expect Fabian Cancellara to finish 2nd.  I've seen a price of 14/1 for a 1st/2nd forecast on the unmentionable site.  If you can get this elsewhere it's a good price for what I would expect to be the result 90% of the time.

In for the sweat.

That's bokked him then. Nothing more certain.

LAY

I should have waited until you got some on before announcing the bokkage really Smiley

I can't seem to find this market anywhere. Has it been taken down, or is there a way to place a straight forecast bet on the cycling that I don't know about?  
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« Reply #71492 on: March 18, 2014, 11:48:20 AM »

Not a lot in the cycling market today, final stage of Tirreno Adriatico (today) is a short time trial which Tony Martin should and almost certainly will win.  If this goes to form I would expect Fabian Cancellara to finish 2nd.  I've seen a price of 14/1 for a 1st/2nd forecast on the unmentionable site.  If you can get this elsewhere it's a good price for what I would expect to be the result 90% of the time.

In for the sweat.

That's bokked him then. Nothing more certain.

LAY

I should have waited until you got some on before announcing the bokkage really Smiley

I can't seem to find this market anywhere. Has it been taken down, or is there a way to place a straight forecast bet on the cycling that I don't know about?  

It's on s*y bet, still up but the price is now 10/1
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arbboy
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« Reply #71493 on: March 18, 2014, 11:48:50 AM »

Really like purple tie for George tomorrow at 4/1 ladbrokes.  Hills go 5/2.  He is very partial to his purple tie.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/9722319/Autumn-Statement-2012-live.html
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Tal
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« Reply #71494 on: March 18, 2014, 11:54:38 AM »

Ha!!

Just logged on to post "So, what we having for the budget, then? Fancy some buzzword rollups?"

Was thinking of a recommend on over 2.5 sips of water at 4/7 with Billy Mountain. He's had as many as eight in the past and although this is likely to be a bit of a celebratory "we told you we woz right on the economy" speech, he might well be doing a bit of shouting over the noisy House and a dry mouth is more likely in those circumstances.

They had their line at 1.5 last year (4/6 the under). Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did not take a single sip in 12 budgets.

Views?
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Doobs
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« Reply #71495 on: March 18, 2014, 11:57:01 AM »

I hope no offence was taken at my previous post but Tikay has himself in the past suggested one of the reasons he ias adverse to taking long term positions is you don't know what's round the corner, well that's how I read it.  
Anyway, back to the matter in hand making money.  

Followers on here may recall that I suggested laying rangers in their home game against Albion Rovers a week or so ago.  I thought the 1.09 was way too short given how they had been playing and struggling at ibrox in recent games. Although winning they had conceded many a soft goal.  On the road they are notably better and don't seem to concede the silly goals as much.  

Tonight they are playing Albion in the replay.   The game is not being played at Cliftonhill which is the home stadium of Rovers so they won't have any sort of home field advantage.  

I expect that the Rangers will come through the tie this evening reasonably unscathed and think they will prove far too powerful for the Rovers tonight.  I think the Euphoria of the upset at Ibrox will be too much for Rovers to handle and despite the fact they rested almost their whole first team at the weekend I expect this will be to their detriment.  

Having a look at the betfair prices and the sportsbooks I think there is a smidge of value in backing  the Rangers -2 @ 11/10 on betfair.  Realistically I think this game will be dead and burried by halftime and would be surprised if Rangers don't win by 4 or 5 this evening.  

You read it perfectly. No offence whatsoever, I promise. Its a fact of life, I think about it every day. Not with sadness, or fear, it's just a fact.

A horse was put up here last week for Cheltenham 2015. And my immediate reaction was 33/1 for the horse to win the Champion Hurdle in 2015, but what price me still being around? I'd not much like a winning bet to be left with the Bookie.

In fact, an Actuary - do we have an Actuary here? - could probably give me a price. I'm 67, never eat veg, have smoked since I was 15, am overweight, eat bad food, & work & worry too much. Can't be much more than 7/2. If you can get 5/1, might be worth a small interest. (Win only).

Will look at that Rangers game shortly, for Rangers -2.

Thanks.

I'd lay 5/1 all day if I could.  Bookies aren't allowed to take bets on deaths, people find it distasteful.  Weird that Actuaries are allowed to make their living doing precisely that.

I could give you better odds if you really want to know.



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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Tal
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« Reply #71496 on: March 18, 2014, 11:57:06 AM »

Really like purple tie for George tomorrow at 4/1 ladbrokes.  Hills go 5/2.  He is very partial to his purple tie.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/9722319/Autumn-Statement-2012-live.html

I like opposing Blue. Next year is an election year, so we can assume he will be donning an Oxford navy in 2015. My only concern would be for a light blue.
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« Reply #71497 on: March 18, 2014, 12:00:27 PM »

its that time again



Luckily this is with Ladbrokes, so we can't do any damage.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #71498 on: March 18, 2014, 12:02:18 PM »



 I'm 67, never eat veg, have smoked since I was 15, am overweight, eat bad food, & work & worry too much.






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Quote from: action man
im not speculating, either, but id have been pretty peeved if i missed the thread and i ended up getting clipped, kindly accepting a lift home.

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arbboy
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« Reply #71499 on: March 18, 2014, 12:02:42 PM »

its that time again



Luckily this is with Ladbrokes, so we can't do any damage.

£50 take out with a 'virgin' account.  1% account you will be able to win 50p.  Might need Mrs Bandit and the cake shop to help us out.
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #71500 on: March 18, 2014, 12:10:23 PM »

Pretty sure that even if a nuclear warhead went off at the start of the speech tomorrow, Osbourne would still get the word "recovery" out.

1/10 not really my bag though.
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arbboy
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« Reply #71501 on: March 18, 2014, 12:12:48 PM »

Liking "finish the job" at 7/4

Nb not a reccendation

Tough decisions for me at 6/4 seems big.
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arbboy
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« Reply #71502 on: March 18, 2014, 12:15:19 PM »

Trying to work out why 'diet' is 5/2? What context would George ever say diet?
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Tal
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« Reply #71503 on: March 18, 2014, 12:17:01 PM »

Trying to work out why 'diet' is 5/2? What context would George ever say diet?

The economy has been on a diet. Far better than the word austerity
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« Reply #71504 on: March 18, 2014, 12:35:00 PM »

Home for a free bet?

Derbyshire 7-1 to win County Championship Div Two (which starts in 19 days) Wlliam Hill


fourth favourites behind surrey, hants and essex. At least 4 of the 9 teams in this are genuine outsiders due to financial considerations, squad depth and strength. derbyshire have just produced their 8th profit in 9 years and have no such concerns

market skewed because surrey have big names, but actually they are rebuilding with youngsters and can be opposed at the price

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/winner

Derbyshire just got relegated last season, actually a very creditable performance, have one of the best domestic batsmen in madsen, an overseas in chanderpaul who churns out runs and a lot of young talent (particularly spinners, which is unusual for them)

Most importantly of all they play at Derby (yes, they do) which produces result wickets.....and this is vital with 24 points for winning a game with max bonus points compared to a maxmium of 11 for the draw

you need to win games, and surrey play at the oval, which is not prepared to produce result wickets. hampshire at the ageas also, only result wickets in the second half of the season when they dry out to take spin


secondary bet £15 e/w derbyshire william hill 7-1 1/5 top 3. I have them in my top three every day of the week at this stage

--

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-1/county-championship-division-1/winner

cc1 is genuinely tough, i could make a case for six of the teams in a really tight heat, and i won't be recommending a bet this season. hopefully gherkin has some ideas.   

I like it, they played well last year in D1 and should comfortably finish in the top 5.  Gloucester at 12/1 and Glamorgan at 16/1 imply they have some sort of realistic chance, which they don't.  The only thing I'd say for anyone else looking to follow is that the price might drift slightly.  The 7/2 on Surrey won't last (it will be 3/1 before the season starts) which may push out a couple of other teams prices. 

I'll have a look at D1 in a couple of weeks when they put some more markets up.  Warwickshire were 13/2 not so long ago, you can barely get 5/1 now - definitely missed an opportunity there.

On a side note, has anyone seen England's bowling in the warm up game against WI?  So clueless!!  There are some interesting warm up games tomorrow but I can't see anything from a betting point of view
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