Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

anyone think newcastle drift has gone too far?  I know Pardew not there and Remy out but palace are missing players and getting close to 11/10 is starting to tempt me.

[tikay]

OK Lisa, thanks, the two "£25 Free Bet if 2nd" horses, with WH Mobile are on.

3.15 Lingfield, Ertijaal, £25 @ 5/4, Guaranteed Price

3.50 Lingfield, Grandeur, £25 @ 7/4, Guaranteed Price.



22 Mar 14 / 10:40

Stake

3:15 Lingfield – Ertijaal @ Guaranteed Price (5/4)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000894/F



22 Mar 14 / 10:40

Stake

3:50 Lingfield – Grandeur @ Guaranteed Price (7/4)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000895/F


BET PLACED

[tikay]

I'm not sure it makes sense to get on the favourite in the winter derby, drawn 14 of 14, in the light of our existing bets does it?

the 3.15 is very trappy too, lots of unexposed 3 year olds

You may well be right, Rich, & I don't want to open that debate again today, but I think the formula is right, & we ought to do them. My responsibility if I'm wrong.  I'm aware we have an interest already in one race, but I'll take a 1-2.

[Longy]

Arizona progressed in March Madness. Such are the quantity of shock results (yesterday Mercer an unheralded online university beat basketball powerhouses Duke as 10-1 underdogs) that not a single prediction out of 5m in the ESPN brackets contest remains live three days into the event!



That is amazing, but how did you happen across that fact?

Would love to know how many sports websites you follow.

In the history of espn running the bracket competitions only one person ever filled in a perfect bracket, that is how hard it is. Predicting 67 games correctly is ludicrously tough and unlikely.

Warren buffet is no fool!

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/warren-buffetts-1b-blew/t/story?id=23003787&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.co.uk%2F

[tikay]

Arizona progressed in March Madness. Such are the quantity of shock results (yesterday Mercer an unheralded online university beat basketball powerhouses Duke as 10-1 underdogs) that not a single prediction out of 5m in the ESPN brackets contest remains live three days into the event!



That is amazing, but how did you happen across that fact?

Would love to know how many sports websites you follow.

In the history of espn running the bracket competitions only one person ever filled in a perfect bracket, that is how hard it is. Predicting 67 games correctly is ludicrously tough and unlikely.

Warren buffet is no fool!

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/warren-buffetts-1b-blew/t/story?id=23003787&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.co.uk%2F

Wow!

As you know, I'm Chairman of the Warren Buffett Fan Club (UK Division), but I was not aware of that.

He's a logical maths man, pure & simple.  Maybe we should get him on Fred. 

[horseplayer]

Newcastle without Remy since he has joined

Games Played 7 Goals Scored 0

Newcastle with Remy playing since he has joined

Games Played 23 Goals Scored 37

[arbboy]

max bet then palace clean sheet.  Can't possibly lose on a sample size like that!

[horseplayer]

Just helping to explain why the market has reacted to Remy being out

Never going to be a big sample size is it? Certainly still more than relevant i would suggest

[TightEnd]

Just helping to explain why the market has reacted to Remy being out

Never going to be a big sample size is it? Certainly still more than relevant i would suggest

u2.5 was 13/20 best when I looked. extremely short price, just to show that Remy's absence and Palace style away from home (don't score many) is priced in in other ways

[horseplayer]

Derby v Forest

5 red cards in last six meetings

12/5 a red with hills looks fair but ref is Michael Naylor who only one red this season and averages 3 yellows a game.

From what i can tell not taken charge of many/any games this important though.

Any views?

[arbboy]

Just helping to explain why the market has reacted to Remy being out

Never going to be a big sample size is it? Certainly still more than relevant i would suggest

Obviously but the same applies for any team when their best striker is out.  Which team scores more goals without their best striker than with him?  Palace are also missing strikers as well so just think the market has potentially over reacted.  Newcastle would normally be a 4/7 1/2 poke in this game now you can get odds against there has to be a price where you get involved even with remy out.

[horseplayer]

Obviously not many but i would be amazed if the difference was that stark with any other striker even over 7 games.

Anyway i have read on here a lot how bad Remy is so was not sure he was regarded as a main striker.,

[jakally]

Derby v Forest

5 red cards in last six meetings

12/5 a red with hills looks fair but ref is Michael Naylor who only one red this season and averages 3 yellows a game.

From what i can tell not taken charge of many/any games this important though.

Any views?

Would probably leave it if ref looks a bit placid.
Think Forest are a bet around 3/1.
Still missing Reid & on a bad run, but Derby have struggled lately, and the fact it's a derby narrows whatever gap there is.

[TightEnd]

30% of Cardiff City’s goals have come from headers, the highest proportion of any team in the top division

Liverpool have conceded the highest proportion of headed goals (23%)

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Stephen Caulker has 4 goals this season in 30 games. They are shown above.  3 were headers. 2 were in the one game v Fulham recently, admittedly

I have had modest success in anytime goalscorer markets against Liverpool playing away at big prices with big lumps against Simon "shot stopper but I don't command my six yard box at corners" Mignolet

Recommendation £5 Caulker anytime Cardiff v Liverpool 16-1 8EIGHT8/Unicyclebet or 14-1 Bet3six5 if you have to

[TightEnd]

Obviously not many but i would be amazed if the difference was that stark with any other striker even over 7 games.

Anyway i have read on here a lot how bad Remy is so was not sure he was regarded as a main striker.,

only from one poster. He obviously makes the team. Proper goal-scorer