Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Given those stacks and the range of ability, is Siever really half as likely to win as Negreanu?

[kpnuts]

Given those stacks and the range of ability, is Siever really half as likely to win as Negreanu?

Seiver at 10s for me too if I was having an interest tickle.

[arbboy]

Given those stacks and the range of ability, is Siever really half as likely to win as Negreanu?

Seiver at 10s for me too if I was having an interest tickle.

I think tal was implying he was too short given his chip stack relative to the big two.  I think he is a lay at 10/1 surely? 

[Nico29]

Ocean should be a 16/1 shot just on chip stack % alone so he must be close to a true 40/1 shot in this line up given his stack.  Was thinking backing Salomon 6/1 and Negr/REink 9/2 both to have the front 3 in the market (they got 54% of the chips between them).  At those prices coupled we are getting a shade under evens when given the quality of at least 2 of the players it should probably be much shorter.  Don't know anything about Salomon but like Tighty said his chip stack is so large relative to his price and the play is relatively short stacked going forward.  Thoughts welcome as always

Saloman is pam anderson's ex I think, and a recreational player.

Edit-they've apparently re married ac 2 wiki.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Salomon

Wouldn't be combining him personally with the other 2-I'd put coleman in instead myself-online beast I believe?

I've already got decent enough positions on Negr and Toby so will prob hedge a bit on Coleman.

Think Seiver@10's isn't the worst price myself tbh.

Very dece player and compared to the other small stacks he seems value.

[kpnuts]

Given those stacks and the range of ability, is Siever really half as likely to win as Negreanu?

Seiver at 10s for me too if I was having an interest tickle.

I think tal was implying he was too short given his chip stack relative to the big two.  I think he is a lay at 10/1 surely? 

Maybe he was, my bad if so!
Seiver's obv restricted a tad right now with just 20BBs v 50ish but he won't make a mistake and he's a devastating finisher. If you look at his Hendon Mob, he has 9x Ws from his last 36 FTs, including 2 x Ws in hi/super-hi rollers.
Haven't studied field too hard tho tbh, can't get on with Vick or Laddie anyway!

[kpnuts]

Ocean should be a 16/1 shot just on chip stack % alone so he must be close to a true 40/1 shot in this line up given his stack.  Was thinking backing Salomon 6/1 and Negr/REink 9/2 both to have the front 3 in the market (they got 54% of the chips between them).  At those prices coupled we are getting a shade under evens when given the quality of at least 2 of the players it should probably be much shorter.  Don't know anything about Salomon but like Tighty said his chip stack is so large relative to his price and the play is relatively short stacked going forward.  Thoughts welcome as always

Saloman is pam anderson's ex I think, and a recreational player.

Edit-they've apparently re married ac 2 wiki.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Salomon

Wouldn't be combining him personally with the other 2-I'd put coleman in instead myself-online beast I believe?

I've already got decent enough positions on Negr and Toby so will prob hedge a bit on Coleman.

Think Seiver@10's isn't the worst price myself tbh.

Very dece player and compared to the other small stacks he seems value.

Agree on Coleman. Take him @ 9/2 all day and all night before Saloman @ .

[scotty2hatty]

Ocean should be a 16/1 shot just on chip stack % alone so he must be close to a true 40/1 shot in this line up given his stack.  Was thinking backing Salomon 6/1 and Negr/REink 9/2 both to have the front 3 in the market (they got 54% of the chips between them).  At those prices coupled we are getting a shade under evens when given the quality of at least 2 of the players it should probably be much shorter.  Don't know anything about Salomon but like Tighty said his chip stack is so large relative to his price and the play is relatively short stacked going forward.  Thoughts welcome as always

Saloman is pam anderson's ex I think, and a recreational player.

Edit-they've apparently re married ac 2 wiki.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Salomon

Wouldn't be combining him personally with the other 2-I'd put coleman in instead myself-online beast I believe?

I've already got decent enough positions on Negr and Toby so will prob hedge a bit on Coleman.

Think Seiver@10's isn't the worst price myself tbh.

Very dece player and compared to the other small stacks he seems value.

Saw the name, Rick Salomon, and thought no way can that be the guy who had the sex tape with Paris Hilton. I was wrong.

[Tal]

*Clears throat*

Given those stacks and the range of ability, is Siever really half as likely to win as Negreanu?

Seiver at 10s for me too if I was having an interest tickle.

I think tal was implying he was too short given his chip stack relative to the big two.  I think he is a lay at 10/1 surely? 

Arbboy is right.



Thought 10/1 was stingy by comparison.

In before someone says "I'll have a monkey with you, Tal". You won't.

[arbboy]

can anyone see any prices for Hyrgios who is pounding nadal to win the us open?  Can't see anything on oddschecker.

[youthnkzR]

No idea why bookies haven't made negraenu a clear favourite purely because his name (I wouldn't but am surprised). Can't see Tobias / Coleman not getting close with the chip advantages they have over some, would need to run pretty bad.

Coleman for me (Hyper SNG specialist online - should have perfect calling / shoving ranges, be very ICM aware...etc vs the recs who don't and won't be).

[Ironside]

can anyone see any prices for Hyrgios who is pounding nadal to win the us open?  Can't see anything on oddschecker.

hope not listed anywhere guess you could of named your price before today as he was a wildcard into wimbledon would of needed to quailfy before today guess he will get a wildcard for us open aswell now if he doesnt get the required ranking before then

[AndrewT]

Since 2002, 10 teams have progressed via pens/extra-time at the World Cup.

9 of those 10 were eliminated in their next game.

So far in this round this would apply to Brazil, Germany, Costa Rica

Presumably

a) the teams that need extra-time or pens to win the game are not as good as teams that win the team (logically?)
b) there may be a fatigue factor. 30mins plus of extra play, late into a tournament, and therefore not as fresh for the subsequent game

the schedule/recovery times for this world cup are identical to 2002-10

Yes, small sample sizes...but can you think of reasons why this wouldn't apply in this world cup?



i like colombia in the quarters anyway, no one is going to be surprised if the dutch beat costa rica and germany/france feels "pick em" and france are 5/2 ish underdogs.

thoughts?

Just had a look and in the Euros since 1996 the W/L record for pens/aet teams is 7-6, but that includes 3 games where both teams had been pens/aet in the previous round. Even so, it still looks a coin flip.

The only real difference i can think of is that the Euros has one less round so players might be a bit less tired, but it's marginal.

[arbboy]

Since 2002, 10 teams have progressed via pens/extra-time at the World Cup.

9 of those 10 were eliminated in their next game.

So far in this round this would apply to Brazil, Germany, Costa Rica

Presumably

a) the teams that need extra-time or pens to win the game are not as good as teams that win the team (logically?)
b) there may be a fatigue factor. 30mins plus of extra play, late into a tournament, and therefore not as fresh for the subsequent game

the schedule/recovery times for this world cup are identical to 2002-10

Yes, small sample sizes...but can you think of reasons why this wouldn't apply in this world cup?



i like colombia in the quarters anyway, no one is going to be surprised if the dutch beat costa rica and germany/france feels "pick em" and france are 5/2 ish underdogs.

thoughts?

Just had a look and in the Euros since 1996 the W/L record for pens/aet teams is 7-6, but that includes 3 games where both teams had been pens/aet in the previous round. Even so, it still looks a coin flip.

The only real difference i can think of is that the Euros has one less round so players might be a bit less tired, but it's marginal.

Stats irrelevant unless you know the sp of each team in question.  Sample size is obviously tiny as well.

[TightEnd]

Look out for game quotes Raonic/Krygios

Raonic a huge server, only lost 1 set in 4 games, 4 tie-breaks, 30 aces in each of two of the wins

Krygios 10 of 18 sets 7-5 or more in games, including a 10-8 fifth setter

Anything in the low 40s or below likely to be comfortably exceeded tomorrow


Krygios is going to win slams, nowhere near the finished article physically, not much subtlety yet but put some tactics onto that serve and power....could be our Jordan Speith for tennis!

[arbboy]

Look out for game quotes Raonic/Krygios

Raonic a huge server, only lost 1 set in 4 games, 4 tie-breaks, 30 aces in each of two of the wins

Krygios 10 of 18 sets 7-5 or more in games, including a 10-8 fifth setter

Anything in the low 40s or below likely to be comfortably exceeded tomorrow


Krygios is going to win slams, nowhere near the finished article physically, not much subtlety yet but put some tactics onto that serve and power....could be our Jordan Speith for tennis!

Very similar to watching Safin when he broke on the scene.  Nadal didn't do a lot wrong today.  Just got blown away.  Bounce factor could be interesting tomorrow as well.  Looking like it's going to be priced a flip from the outright prices.  Anyone got any views?