Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Morning all.

Not sure if Tighty is around this morning, but I'll be AWOL most of today, as I have to see a young lady about a dog.

For now though, I'll try & look at the 3 Recommends already up, by maldini, simon, & Pete.

Keep the Recommends coming, please.   

[tikay]

Neesham top New Zealand batsman in T20 series v West Indies.

He will be opening as they try to get him and Corey Anderson in.

He's in decent form and price is a touch too big for an opener.

9/2 best with billy hills.

£40 rec

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/west-indies-v-new-zealand/t20-series/west-indies-new-zealand-t20s/top-new-zealand-batsman

Thanks very much maldini.

Wm Hill are now 4/1, & I cannot get better than 4/1 with any of our active accounts.

Is 4/1 OK? Seems to be 4/1 across the board, or mostly so, so we are not beating the Market.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £300.30

Outstanding Bets £2380.10

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=27

A loss of £165 yesterday.

- Colombia exited the world Cup in a frenetic and harem-scarem game.



This meant that the £100 (£50 e/w) bet on Jackson Martinez fell. He scored two goals in two world cup starts, but was not selected consistently enough to give the bet a chance

- £25.30 on the Colombia exit/Brazil lay

Good stuff from Luiz at the end though perhaps more resonance if he and colleagues hadn't spent 90 minutes trying to put wonderboy in hospital while the referee looked on



- £10 Cuadrado, who had an excellent tournament, whoscored.com player of the tournament

- £10 Cabaye, on France's exit, whoscored.com player of the tournament

Click to see full-size image.

- £20 on Dimitrov, defeated by Djokovic in four sets

Click to see full-size image.

Time for a winner or two.


looking to ongoing positions

- Neymar fractured a vertebrae and is out of the World cup. Currently in an each way position in the golden boot, but might not be by the tournament ends

Click to see full-size image.

- Federer reached his 25th grand slam final defeating Raonic. We have £30 e/w at 6-1 for Wmbledon and are thus guaranteed a return. Djokovic will be favourite. Oe more time Roger!

- T20 blast.

Time for a comprehensive summary. (sorry)

14 group games
4 teams from each of the north and south group make the quarters
top two in each get a home quarter, playing 3rd-4th in the other group

North Group

Worcestershire 40-1 and Yorkshire 14-1

Playing each other yesterday, rained off

1    Worcestershire    10    6    2    0    2    0.701 14.0
2    Lancashire    10    6    2    0    2    0.454    14.0
3    Nottinghamshire    10    5    3    0    2    0.554    12.0
4    Yorkshire    10    4    3    0    3    0.201    11.0
5    Durham    10    4    4    0    2    0.627    10.0
6    Warwickshire    10    4    4    0    2    -0.0040    10.0
7    Northamptonshire 10    3    4    0    3    -0.985 9.0 

looking good. Worcestershire v Flintoff and Lancashire tomorrow is a big one

South group

Essex at 12-1, Glamorgan at 33-1

Essex beat Surrey last night and are very close to securing qualification.



Glamorgan were rained off. Glamorgan at Surrey next week is a big one

1    Essex    9    8    1    0    0    0.388    16.0
2    Hampshire    10    7    3    0    0    0.504    14.0
3    Surrey    9    6    3    0    0    0.743    12.0
4    Glamorgan    10    4    3    1    2    -0.041    11.0
5    Gloucestershire    10    4    4    0    2    -0.073 8.0
6    Sussex    10    4    6    0    0    -0.127    8.0

four quarter final winners get to finals day, two semis and a final at Edgbaston. e/w terms are 1/2 1,2

- baseball

the royals beat cleveland 7-1 and the tigers lost. the Orioles were rained off and the Yankees won

standings: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/?tcid=mm_mlb_standings

Proper sweats on all three bets.

-F1. FP2 standings as follows yesterday. good performance from Aonso, beating the red bulls in the best of the rest

Click to see full-size image.

The failed engine for Lewis Hamilton was high-mileage end-of-lifespan. New race engine for Sunday as scheduled, shouldn't really affect his race as he will do a longish run in FP3

[simonnatur]

Very happy to wait to get the True Story suggestion seconded by an elder before parting with Tikay's hard-earned. For anyone who does like it Stan James are now 18-1 qtr odds

[TightEnd]

I've just backed True Story e/w in the Eclipse @ 18-1 with BV. Think third by 1½ lengths to The Grey Gatsby in The Dante is far from the worst form on offer. Seemingly won't mind the rain in the ground which is considered a negative for The Fugue. Rec £10 e/w

its 18-1, so we'd expect it to have holes...

deep breath

i am also on a hiding to nothing when it scoots up, so i am sure we will put it on but

really?

didn't like the (post rain) ground at york much in the dante, connections interviewed afterwards said so.

gatsby then franked the form and everyone is bullish for the derby

then finished 7th in the derby, possibly not helped by being baulked on the outside if i recall correctly

and we think it will get in the frame here?

i don't see much to suggest it will (cue to all pile on)

"TRAINER Saeed Bin Suroor is hoping the rain stays away from the Curragh to enable Derby seventh True Story to line up for a Classic Godolphin won 20 years ago with one of their first top-class horses."

"He didn't run at all in the Derby. Before the race he was flying but as soon as he left the stalls he was not there. At halfway Kieren [Fallon] had to ask him, which is unusual for the horse. Kieren said he didn't like the track. We know he's much better than that.

"Saturday all depends on the weather. He needs the ground to be good to firm. If there is rain we will wait for the Coral-Eclipse."

this was all in this pre irish derby article



http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/curragh-true-story-camp-on-weather-watch-for-irish-derby-bid/1679024/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

"seemingly won't mind the rain" is incorrect i think

[tikay]

Very happy to wait to get the True Story suggestion seconded by an elder before parting with Tikay's hard-earned. For anyone who does like it Stan James are now 18-1 qtr odds

Thanks.

Tighty has now commented further, & taken the reins. (see "hospital pass").

As to the going, & weather, I live around 4 miles from Sandown Park, & we have had a great deal of overnight rain. Currently, it is heavily overcast, but quite windy. 

The BMU price of 18/1 is one fifth odds, others have qtr odds @ lesser prices. We don't use Satan.

Betfair go 17.2 for the Win, & 4.2 the place.

Must be said, @ 18/1, it can't be terrible & we don't expect 18/1 shots to be nailed on, so I have no probs with giving it a spin.

Any of our Racing chaps around, who have a view?

[Mark_Porter]

WSOP main event kicks off today. A reminder that Fred has:-

Over 6300 5/6 £60
Over 6350 5/6 £140

Last year drew 6352 entrants.

It's three starting days - today, Sunday and Monday.

The last three years of day 1A's have been:-

2011 - 897
2012 - 1066
2013 - 943

More than half of the field will enter on Day 1C so that will be the one to watch. Would be nice to see >1000 runners today to get us off to a good start.

[TightEnd]

Alright, three F1 bets for you guys right now:

1) Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 15/8 with William Hill

That's a standard price for Nico Rosberg every weekend. However the bookies don't appear to have factored in that closest rival Lewis "MardyBum" Hamilton didn't do a high-fuel run today due to a mechanical failure. With tomorrow forecast to be wet (meaning he still would not be able to complete a race simulation), that could hamper him in the race. Lewis does know this track better than anyone, so it is quite possible he could go on to win the race anyway - but that price on Rosberg is definitely value. Recommend £5 or £10, depending on how risky you're feeling.

2) W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 25/1 with Boyle Sports

25/1 is an insane price. Pretty much all other bookies have gone 5/1 which is much more realistic. Bottas is handy in the wet and could well qualify strong tomorrow if the rain begins to fall. Small bet, £5 max.

3) Group A (RIC/ALO/BOT/MAS): Daniel Ricciardo @ 13/8 with Bet Victor

I love these group bets sometimes. The Red Bull of Ricciardo is quicker than the Williams' or Alonso over a race stint under normal circumstances, this 13/8 is basically on Ricciardo to finish the race making it a great price.

Boylesports are a non-no i am afraid, account closed. Probable palp on that too, so be careful

bet 3) "basicallya bet on ricciardo to finish the race" really? i accept that on race pace/long runs the red bulls should have the edge but it is surely a lot more competitive than your statement implies behind the mercs?

whilst the red bulls obviously do well in the high speed corners/downforce etc, the williams will have them for pace on wellington, down hangar, lots of overtaking possible?

[tikay]

Alright, three F1 bets for you guys right now:

1) Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 15/8 with William Hill

That's a standard price for Nico Rosberg every weekend. However the bookies don't appear to have factored in that closest rival Lewis "MardyBum" Hamilton didn't do a high-fuel run today due to a mechanical failure. With tomorrow forecast to be wet (meaning he still would not be able to complete a race simulation), that could hamper him in the race. Lewis does know this track better than anyone, so it is quite possible he could go on to win the race anyway - but that price on Rosberg is definitely value. Recommend £5 or £10, depending on how risky you're feeling.

2) W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 25/1 with Boyle Sports

25/1 is an insane price. Pretty much all other bookies have gone 5/1 which is much more realistic. Bottas is handy in the wet and could well qualify strong tomorrow if the rain begins to fall. Small bet, £5 max.

3) Group A (RIC/ALO/BOT/MAS): Daniel Ricciardo @ 13/8 with Bet Victor

I love these group bets sometimes. The Red Bull of Ricciardo is quicker than the Williams' or Alonso over a race stint under normal circumstances, this 13/8 is basically on Ricciardo to finish the race making it a great price.

Thanks Peter.

I'm going to leave those to someone who knows better than me, Tighty, &/or others.

The Bottas price is a clear palp (see Nico), but in any event, most of us are banned from Boyles.

The Rosberg price (see Nico again) can be beaten by Betty.

As to the "small" stakes as commented by others, the stakes are just fine. Ther way we work here is never to suggest upping stakes, as it only serves to intimidate some guys from putting bets up, they feel uncomfy with higher amounts & in some cases, will not put bets up if the stakes are to be upped.

If regulars think the Stakes on a particular bet are too small, then they should make a separate Recommend, & if appropriate, it'll be put on.

So we are totally fine with your suggested stake sizes.

[maldini32]

Morning Tikay

Have £20 at 4's. Don't take any lower, it's a 2 game series so will give us an interest with a very live chance of bonking.

[tikay]

WSOP main event kicks off today. A reminder that Fred has:-

Over 6300 5/6 £60
Over 6350 5/6 £140

Last year drew 6352 entrants.

It's three starting days - today, Sunday and Monday.

The last three years of day 1A's have been:-

2011 - 897
2012 - 1066
2013 - 943

More than half of the field will enter on Day 1C so that will be the one to watch. Would be nice to see >1000 runners today to get us off to a good start.

Thanks Mark.

I'm pretty bullish about our bets here.

Word of warning though, if the numbers are sub 1,000 today, it would not bother me, as it is the morning after July 4th, & they get seriously excited on July 4th, everyone gets battered in clubs & bars, so I fully expect low numbers today.

[TightEnd]

the Tour De Yorkshire begins in an hour

Kittel and Cavendish are 3-1 joints for the opening stage

we have  for today

TdeF 2014 stage 1   Griepel   7/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4

hopefully Tonji and the incredible cycling team can keep us up to date

should be quite a specatcle if you can catch it too

[tikay]

Morning Tikay

Have £20 at 4's. Don't take any lower, it's a 2 game series so will give us an interest with a very live chance of bonking.

In fact, I was incorrect, the 4/1 was for the first match, 9/2 for the "Series" (2 games) remains available, so we have reverted to £40 @ 9/2, thank you. (Wm Hill).

Any suggestion that we have a bet on Neesham @ 4/1 off-thread for the first game due to misclickage will be strenously denied, & blamed on Tighty.

BET PLACED

[Peter-27]

Alright, three F1 bets for you guys right now:

1) Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 15/8 with William Hill

That's a standard price for Nico Rosberg every weekend. However the bookies don't appear to have factored in that closest rival Lewis "MardyBum" Hamilton didn't do a high-fuel run today due to a mechanical failure. With tomorrow forecast to be wet (meaning he still would not be able to complete a race simulation), that could hamper him in the race. Lewis does know this track better than anyone, so it is quite possible he could go on to win the race anyway - but that price on Rosberg is definitely value. Recommend £5 or £10, depending on how risky you're feeling.

2) W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 25/1 with Boyle Sports

25/1 is an insane price. Pretty much all other bookies have gone 5/1 which is much more realistic. Bottas is handy in the wet and could well qualify strong tomorrow if the rain begins to fall. Small bet, £5 max.

3) Group A (RIC/ALO/BOT/MAS): Daniel Ricciardo @ 13/8 with Bet Victor

I love these group bets sometimes. The Red Bull of Ricciardo is quicker than the Williams' or Alonso over a race stint under normal circumstances, this 13/8 is basically on Ricciardo to finish the race making it a great price.

Boylesports are a non-no i am afraid, account closed. Probable palp on that too, so be careful

bet 3) "basicallya bet on ricciardo to finish the race" really? i accept that on race pace/long runs the red bulls should have the edge but it is surely a lot more competitive than your statement implies behind the mercs?

whilst the red bulls obviously do well in the high speed corners/downforce etc, the williams will have them for pace on wellington, down hangar, lots of overtaking possible?

Williams will have pace on this track, but Red Bull look strong both on single-lap and race pace, I do expect them to be considerably quicker on race pace. I think it's a safe enough bet at that price, recommend £10.

Alright, three F1 bets for you guys right now:

1) Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 15/8 with William Hill

That's a standard price for Nico Rosberg every weekend. However the bookies don't appear to have factored in that closest rival Lewis "MardyBum" Hamilton didn't do a high-fuel run today due to a mechanical failure. With tomorrow forecast to be wet (meaning he still would not be able to complete a race simulation), that could hamper him in the race. Lewis does know this track better than anyone, so it is quite possible he could go on to win the race anyway - but that price on Rosberg is definitely value. Recommend £5 or £10, depending on how risky you're feeling.

2) W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 25/1 with Boyle Sports

25/1 is an insane price. Pretty much all other bookies have gone 5/1 which is much more realistic. Bottas is handy in the wet and could well qualify strong tomorrow if the rain begins to fall. Small bet, £5 max.

3) Group A (RIC/ALO/BOT/MAS): Daniel Ricciardo @ 13/8 with Bet Victor

I love these group bets sometimes. The Red Bull of Ricciardo is quicker than the Williams' or Alonso over a race stint under normal circumstances, this 13/8 is basically on Ricciardo to finish the race making it a great price.

Thanks Peter.

I'm going to leave those to someone who knows better than me, Tighty, &/or others.

The Bottas price is a clear palp (see Nico), but in any event, most of us are banned from Boyles.

The Rosberg price (see Nico again) can be beaten by Betty.

As to the "small" stakes as commented by others, the stakes are just fine. Ther way we work here is never to suggest upping stakes, as it only serves to intimidate some guys from putting bets up, they feel uncomfy with higher amounts & in some cases, will not put bets up if the stakes are to be upped.

If regulars think the Stakes on a particular bet are too small, then they should make a separate Recommend, & if appropriate, it'll be put on.

So we are totally fine with your suggested stake sizes.

2 questions;

1) What do you guys mean by palp?
2) Why are you guys all banned from Boyles?

[simonnatur]

I've just backed True Story e/w in the Eclipse @ 18-1 with BV. Think third by 1½ lengths to The Grey Gatsby in The Dante is far from the worst form on offer. Seemingly won't mind the rain in the ground which is considered a negative for The Fugue. Rec £10 e/w

its 18-1, so we'd expect it to have holes...

deep breath

i am also on a hiding to nothing when it scoots up, so i am sure we will put it on but

really?

didn't like the (post rain) ground at york much in the dante, connections interviewed afterwards said so.

gatsby then franked the form and everyone is bullish for the derby

then finished 7th in the derby, possibly not helped by being baulked on the outside if i recall correctly

and we think it will get in the frame here?

i don't see much to suggest it will (cue to all pile on)

"TRAINER Saeed Bin Suroor is hoping the rain stays away from the Curragh to enable Derby seventh True Story to line up for a Classic Godolphin won 20 years ago with one of their first top-class horses."

"He didn't run at all in the Derby. Before the race he was flying but as soon as he left the stalls he was not there. At halfway Kieren [Fallon] had to ask him, which is unusual for the horse. Kieren said he didn't like the track. We know he's much better than that.

"Saturday all depends on the weather. He needs the ground to be good to firm. If there is rain we will wait for the Coral-Eclipse."

this was all in this pre irish derby article



http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/curragh-true-story-camp-on-weather-watch-for-irish-derby-bid/1679024/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

"seemingly won't mind the rain" is incorrect i think

Key points in favour for me were back to 10f and form from Dante on Good to Soft, Good in places (may have finished closer if not slightly hampered in closing stages)
Fred already has a decent position with Kingston Hill imo , no need to add to it without further support. Always grateful for feedback.