Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Phil Taylor is 9/4 Boyles outright for world matchplay if anyone can get it.  People asking for less than 2/1 for several hundred on betfair.

[simonnatur]

Oh No !!! Glorious Goodwood next week and the talk is all football already, really ?

Apologies to anyone posting about one of Fred's most profitable sports. Should probably steer clear of internet after cider festival in future...

[George2Loose]

I'd say Allardyce- his remit is not only to do well but to play an attractive style of footie which could be alien to him

[Omm]

Oh No !!! Glorious Goodwood next week and the talk is all football already, really ?

Apologies to anyone posting about one of Fred's most profitable sports. Should probably steer clear of internet after cider festival in future...

Haha, I don't think it's a problem mate, a few of us getting excited about next week, doesn't mean we can't squeeze the value out of the football before the season starts. I miss Cider in the summer, great drink, hope you enjoyed it.

[Tal]

Rookie egg catcher wide receiver, Sammy Watkins made a good impression at pre-season training:

http://www.syracuse.com/axeman/index.ssf/2014/07/sammy_watkins_makes_terrific_one-handed_catch_at_buffalo_bills_practice_video.html

 

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £627.83

Outstanding Bets £2843.36

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=27

No bets completed yesterday

The Tour De France podium places are being fiercely competed for. Yesterday Valverde who has been clinging on for a few days limited his losses to 50 seconds to Peraud but with Le Tourmalet today and the time trial to come its a very close battle

Click to see full-size image.

ITA  1  NIBALI, Vincenzo (ASTANA)                        76:41:28
ESP  2  VALVERDE BELMONTE, Alejandro (MOVISTAR)           +  5:26
FRA  3  PINOT, Thibaut (FDJ.fr)                           +  6:00
FRA  4  PERAUD, Jean-Christophe (AG2R LA MONDIALE)        +  6:08
FRA  5  BARDET, Romain (AG2R LA MONDIALE)                 +  7:34

today..the final battle in the mountains

Click to see full-size image.

Meanwhile for the Sri Lankan Commonwealth games cyclists, a lovely day to train on the M74

Click to see full-size image.

In baseball the Royals beat the White Sox 2-1, starting pitcher James Shields allowing no runs over his seven innings

Click to see full-size image.

The Orioles lost 2-1 and the Yankees won 3-2

At Blackpool, Phil Taylor made the quarters which line up as follows

MVG v Chisnall to play Wade v Whitlock

Taylor v Newton to play Anderson or Lewis

Taylor 2/1 MVG 9/4 6/1 bar two

[Tal]

Mo Farah pulls out of the Commonwealth Games, leaving two triathletes and some cyclists to carry the flag.

[Waz1892]

By the same notion on yeovil beating donny, forest home to blackpool forest being 1/2 (only looked at whil) seems generous?

Blackpool have a stand off with chairman and new manager refusing to buy players. Only 8 on books at present, no keeper and played trialist's at the weekend vs penrith to make up numbers

Thoughts?

[TightEnd]

By the same notion on yeovil beating donny, forest home to blackpool forest being 1/2 (only looked at whil) seems generous?

Blackpool have a stand off with chairman and new manager refusing to buy players. Only 8 on books at present, no keeper and played trialist's at the weekend vs penrith to make up numbers

Thoughts?

1/2 looks about right doesn't it?

you think it should be 1/5, say?

we discussed blackpool 10 days or so on here at which point 5/4 was available on them to go down, now 8/11 generally so i would say its pretty well known and priced in by now

[arbboy]

i would happily lay any team in the championship against anyone at 1/2 blind.

[TightEnd]

Cricket's Royal London cup starts this weekend

50 over competition

18 counties split into 2 groups of 9

each play each other once, so 8 games per team per group

top 4 through, then knock out

the two groups drawn randomly before the season


the strongest one day sides in the country, off T20 form, past seasons are

Hampshire
Essex
Notts
Lancs
Yorks

4 of these five are drawn in one group

Group A                               Group B
Hampshire                              Kent Spitfires
Derbyshire Falcons              Durham
Lancashire Lightning              Glamorgan
Gloucestershire Gladiators      Nottinghamshire Outlaws
Leicestershire Foxes              Sussex Sharks
Northamptonshire Steelbacks  Warwickshire Bears
Worcestershire                      Surrey
Essex Eagles                      Middlesex Panthers
Yorkshire Vikings                   Somerset

they also represent 5 of the top 8 in the market

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/royal-london-one-day-cup/winner

the history of the 3rd domestic competition is a pretty jaded one, and what we are usually looking for here is a team that is not competing for a county championship or T20 title

With the domestic schedule so crowded, teams will prioritise other competitions if still in them. Each county operates a squad under a salary cap, so if you rest your key players (because you have a key T20 quarter coming up say) you have to play the youngsters in this

its very rare to see a team win more than one trophy in any given season as a result

so what you need in this are

- teams not fighting on other fronts
- in decent recent form
- with potential to click

two teams fit this bill at the prices

- Sussex at 12-1 (14-1 stan james)

high powered line up just coming into form, injured players returning
poor recent record in T20, so this is a priority
won the 40 over comp in 08 and 09 and many of the same players around, notably luke wright, ed joyce and chris nash who can win games in this
not going to win the lvcc, not going to go down, not in the t20


- Kent at 33-1

Under-resourced county financially but a lot of young talent coming through.
Likely to prioritise this, not going up in LVCC, not in T20.
good recent form. Experienced players like Key and Stevens still bring it in the one day formats
Completely disregarded in betting markets, which is good. the team is maturing much quicker than 33-1 suggests

both are in the other group to the majority of the powerhouses. get out of the group, then a little bit of luck needed to give you a squeak


recommendations

£20 e/w 1/2 1,2 each Sussex 12-1 Ladbrokes, Kent 33-1 Betfair Sportsbook

[Waz1892]

By the same notion on yeovil beating donny, forest home to blackpool forest being 1/2 (only looked at whil) seems generous?

Blackpool have a stand off with chairman and new manager refusing to buy players. Only 8 on books at present, no keeper and played trialist's at the weekend vs penrith to make up numbers

Thoughts?

1/2 looks about right doesn't it?

you think it should be 1/5, say?

we discussed blackpool 10 days or so on here at which point 5/4 was available on them to go down, now 8/11 generally so i would say its pretty well known and priced in by now

I would have thought a play-off team vs relegation team at home would be 1/3, 2/7.

If the game was in october and form is as expected wouldnt it be as such?

[TightEnd]

By the same notion on yeovil beating donny, forest home to blackpool forest being 1/2 (only looked at whil) seems generous?

Blackpool have a stand off with chairman and new manager refusing to buy players. Only 8 on books at present, no keeper and played trialist's at the weekend vs penrith to make up numbers

Thoughts?

1/2 looks about right doesn't it?

you think it should be 1/5, say?

we discussed blackpool 10 days or so on here at which point 5/4 was available on them to go down, now 8/11 generally so i would say its pretty well known and priced in by now

I would have thought a play-off team vs relegation team at home would be 1/3, 2/7.

If the game was in october and form is as expected wouldnt it be as such?

no, i think its rare to see 1/3 or shorter about any team against the other in the championship

this could be a one off of course, with exceptional circumstances

[DungBeetle]

i would happily lay any team in the championship against anyone at 1/2 blind.

Agree

[arbboy]

they might be 1/3 but it doesn't mean they should be.  Forest are not even a top 6 side on paper so to recommend them at 1/2 first time out would def be a lay for me rather than a back.