Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

...in which case, may I bump this for wider opinions, please?

Have another possible NFL suggestion.

Every year, the Associated Press decide which player has returned from injury or enforced absence to deliver the best season performance. Since 1962, this has heralded the Comeback Player of the Year.

Seven of the last eight (and all of the last six) winners have been quarterbacks. It isn't typically a player who's led a big playoff charge but someone who has come back and picked their team up noticeably.

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/american-football

RG3 is the favourite. Washington are in a mess and he must be a huge gamble to herald a new era for the franchise. The next quarterback is fourth in the betting.

Step up, Aaron Rodgers.

An enviable CV in a team built around the passing game. The defense isn't what it was (albeit with a couple of new recruits), so it could well be a case in the NFC North of which QBs can fire their team to the top. He should be top of that list.

He is back from a collarbone injury and has had a lot of time to recover, having been on the field at the end of last season.

If the Packers win the division, it will be because Rodgers has been picking out receivers in Wisconsin. The second half of their schedule is quite nice looking, after a tough start, so the recency bias could come into play for the voters.

12/1 seems like a big price to me.

Click to see full-size image.

Interested in views, but would propose £20 with, again, the red shouty man.

i like gronkowski at 9-1 and doug martin at 20-1 too.

will await opinions before producing a cocktail position

Trying to avoid conflict with BE.

[tikay]

I've spent a lot of time researching and writing NFL ante-post stuff for BE

The first article Divisions, Conferences and Super-bowl markets is at http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/51.

Trying to pick turn-around stories, and explaining why these happen in the NFL

The second article : Team and player specials is out later in the week

looking at the trends for markets like most passing yards, rookie of the year etc etc


I think there is some real value in some of these. tikay would be ok if I placed a selection, to a budget, and folllowed them through the season?These are free to read so available to us, Neil's week by week season analysis is in a paid package.

Yes please.

We have enjoyed tremendous fun on Fred with NFL, especially with our season sweats, & we are blessed with a decent sprinkling of real in-depth knowledge here.

For the SEASON bets, I think we should allocate a sensible budget, then build a book.

Would £500 be sensible for Season bets in NFL?

As to your selection(s), go ahead please, within that wider brief. 

Be interested in how much we should allocate overall, but £500 seems reasonable to me. Thoughts anyone?

[tikay]

Trying to avoid conflict with BE.

Yo Posh Bloke.

I see that term quite often on here, understandably, as the majority of us don't want to cross the line or mess about.

I've discussed this whole issue with NC at length.

As far as we are concerned, it's just common sense & being right by both parties.

To date, there is not a shred of evidence that anyone has messed about or posted "spoilers".

It's awkward, of course, when someone here wants to Post a Recommend & then sees it on BE, they feel a bit compromised. I know Doobs has found himself in a few awkward spots.

We all trust each other, so don't be shy posting stuff even if you have also seen it on BE. Those who buy BE packages are never going to do it, either, as it would be against their interests so to do.

It's just a common sense thing. 

NC, redarmi, Tighty & Co will still continue to post stuff on Fred when appropriate, too.

Grown ups, 'innit?   

[BorntoBubble]

Trying to avoid conflict with BE.

Yo Posh Bloke.

I see that term quite often on here, understandably, as the majority of us don't want to cross the line or mess about.

I've discussed this whole issue with NC at length.

As far as we are concerned, it's just common sense & being right by both parties.

To date, there is not a shred of evidence that anyone has messed about or posted "spoilers".

It's awkward, of course, when someone here wants to Post a Recommend & then sees it on BE, they feel a bit compromised. I know Doobs has found himself in a few awkward spots.

We all trust each other, so don't be shy posting stuff even if you have also seen it on BE. Those who buy BE packages are never going to do it, either, as it would be against their interests so to do.

It's just a common sense thing. 

NC, redarmi, Tighty & Co will still continue to post stuff on Fred when appropriate, too.

Grown ups, 'innit?   

As the famous Tikay once said. Flick it in.

[peejaytwo]

baldy has dangled a carrot on his Goals Galore coupon, it may be worth the restricted fiver or tenner he wants to lay.

posh/pboro
cov/cardiff
dortmund/bay are the games in sight,all with good goals expectation and no big odds on favs.

at 8/11 twice and 8/13 for the german game the treble comes out at between 7/2 and 4/1. these are on Baldys bonus coupon so hes gonna pay you out at 9/2.

[tikay]

Trying to avoid conflict with BE.

Yo Posh Bloke.

I see that term quite often on here, understandably, as the majority of us don't want to cross the line or mess about.

I've discussed this whole issue with NC at length.

As far as we are concerned, it's just common sense & being right by both parties.

To date, there is not a shred of evidence that anyone has messed about or posted "spoilers".

It's awkward, of course, when someone here wants to Post a Recommend & then sees it on BE, they feel a bit compromised. I know Doobs has found himself in a few awkward spots.

We all trust each other, so don't be shy posting stuff even if you have also seen it on BE. Those who buy BE packages are never going to do it, either, as it would be against their interests so to do.

It's just a common sense thing. 

NC, redarmi, Tighty & Co will still continue to post stuff on Fred when appropriate, too.

Grown ups, 'innit?   

As the famous Tikay once said. Flick it in.

Stop it. Stop it, NOW, OK?

Every PM I get says it now, ffs.

Ridic expression.

[TightEnd]

my nfl stuff would cost around £220-230 if i can get it on

plenty of room for more

[Bad Beat]

 I was having a conversation with a couple of Fred regs about BE and posting on Fred the other day. They were saying that they find it awkward when they fancy something but it then appears on BE before they've had a chance to post a tip and now they feel they can't.

 When Joe and I first started BE one thing we were naturally keen to do was to get loads of people to actually go to the site and register. We really didn't want to see stuff here or anywhere else when we'd gone to the trouble of putting it on the site and we are obviously keen to build the number of registrants. Although it would be great to still build the free registrants I believe now that the subset of people who read Fred, who haven't registered for BE but who are potentially going to register to BE in the future is very small and so I don't think it damages us at all if free stuff we have tipped is discussed here.

 I personally follow all the Brodders  stuff, the darts, Alan's non-league, Redarmi's football and NFL, Tighty's cricket and other things and in every case I would love Fred to bet it, as I think it will make money, but I'm also conscious not to block up Fred with BE stuff every day.

 Although we provide loads of free stuff there is also some stuff that people pay a lot of money for. Again I don't think there is a massive subset of Fred regs who keep meaning to subscribe but just haven't yet and so to an extent posting tips that we charge for here would not be massively damaging. If people do subscribe then I believe they get quite a bit more than just the name of a football team or some horses for their cash.

 In the case of Velox at Goodwood, a horse in a 17-runner race where many bookmakers paid 5 places I don't think it took Einstein to figure out this was a good bet and I wouldn't have minded at all if someone who had subscribed then put it here as a tip. I wouldn't even have minded if they'd have said this is a great ew race and Neil has tipped it on BE. If they had printed a cut n paste of the whole race or quoted me word for word I might question and I don't think it would be great if someone put our Grand National or Gold Cup picks up as they were a little out of the ordinary and in races where we could expect to get a lot of extra business.
 Generally though I think it's fine if people suggest Fred betting our stuff more than happens now rather than less.

[tikay]

my nfl stuff would cost around £220-230 if i can get it on

plenty of room for more

Not "cost", "invest". Please.

[TightEnd]

my nfl stuff would cost around £220-230 if i can get it on

plenty of room for more

Not "cost", "invest". Please.

a pet hate

"how much would you like to invest, sir, on Leicester City to win at Manchester United at 8-1 sir?"

the lady on the phone at Ladbrokes used to say in the days before the internet

"I am not investing, I am gambling" Iwould reply

and on we would go...

[TightEnd]

Tal

we were restricted on Aaron

I took what we could given the nearest alternative elsewhere is 9-1

Event Information:    2014 AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year
NFL
2014-08-29 01:00:00
Market:    Award Winner
Selection:    Aaron Rodgers @ 12/1
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000662
Placed at:    17:49 11/08/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £4.16
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £4.16
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £4.16
   
   
   £54.08

[TightEnd]

bet v

 NFL 2014/15 San Diego Chargers (AFC West - Outright) Odds: 13/2 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  150.00

ladbrokes


14/1
Green Bay Packers
Super Bowl XLIX
Singles - Super Bowl Winner - 1/2 1,2 - Each Way
2 lines @ £10.00 per line
Total Stake £20.00
Potential Return £230.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000663
25/1
Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl XLIX
Singles - Super Bowl Winner - 1/2 1,2 - Each Way
2 lines @ £10.00 per line
Total Stake £20.00
Potential Return £395.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000664
14/1
Philadelphia Eagles
NFC
Singles - Conference Winner - Each Way
2 lines @ £10.00 per line
Total Stake £20.00
Potential Return £230.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000665

Event Information:    AFC
NFL
2014-09-07 18:00:00
Market:    Conference winner
Selection:    Pittsburgh Steelers @ 14/1
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000666
Placed at:    17:58 11/08/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £10.00
Number of lines:    2
Stake:    £20.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £20.00
   
   
   £230.00

hills

05 Sep 2014 - NFC West - Divison Winner - Division Winner

St.Louis Rams @ 12/1

Stake : £15.00
Estimated Returns : £
195.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001071/F


i have seven for the player specials, some very juicy stuff indeed. later in the week

[Marky147]

Tal

we were restricted on Aaron

I took what we could given the nearest alternative elsewhere is 9-1

Event Information:    2014 AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year
NFL
2014-08-29 01:00:00
Market:    Award Winner
Selection:    Aaron Rodgers @ 12/1
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000662
Placed at:    17:49 11/08/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £4.16
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £4.16
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £4.16
   
   
   £54.08

They let me have a pony on that, so Tikay can have a fiver of mine if he wants.

[TightEnd]

Tal

we were restricted on Aaron

I took what we could given the nearest alternative elsewhere is 9-1

Event Information:    2014 AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year
NFL
2014-08-29 01:00:00
Market:    Award Winner
Selection:    Aaron Rodgers @ 12/1
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000662
Placed at:    17:49 11/08/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £4.16
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £4.16
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £4.16
   
   
   £54.08

They let me have a pony on that, so Tikay can have a fiver of mine if he wants.

thank you, booked

[Tal]

Lolz. All that for £4.16

Thanks for the reply, Bad Beat. There is another point, on the other side of the coin. This might just be a "me" thing, but, if I post something as a bet or as a possible bet for discussion, I'm doing it because it's the product of my own research, analysis, biases, hunches and tea leaf markings. I am happy to accept criticism and learn from my mistakes, to accept guidance when the bet can be improved upon and, occasionally, to take the credit when it romps home with a double handful.

For us casual puntery types, it's nice to get something right and see it through. Now, if an elder likes it or it pops up on a tipping site, that's the kind of validation folks like me really enjoy. Maybe it's an example of the community bit of Fred in action. The important thing for me is it's come from me, even if it were at the same time as someone else.

The more and more varied tipsters we have the better, although we shouldn't underestimate the importance and impact of the elders. I'm all for BE tips being shared on here as much as you and Joe are happy to share them. I am really just stressing the importance of people putting up their fancies and bets and taking ownership of them.

I'm rambling. Sorry. All good. Let's do wins.