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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13443076 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #86325 on: September 05, 2014, 09:02:13 AM »

Let's just preface this by saying I know nothing about Golf, but it seemed to me there was some decent e/w value about in the BMW with Rory being such a short priced fav.
I looked through the leaderboard and really liked Horschel 33-1. As I understand it nearly all players are unfamiliar with the course yet he has shot very decent amount of birdies and may improve on the holes that caused him difficulty in the first round. He has decent all round stats and recent form. He also has a good strokes gained putting stat which may be significant due to the way the greens are playing. We get great place terms and don't give up anything against Betfair on the win part.
Have also punted Fred fav Spieth @ 16-1 who is one of the few with decent previous experience of the course, and Matt Every, who seems to be exceptional in strokes gained putting in his first round,as my banzai @ 100-1
Hope this make some sense, if not blame insomnia.

I hope Speith can put some sort of run together to get us a top 3 finish in the FedEx standings, but he doesn't seem an each way kind of guy.   

Just thinking out loud, but Furyk is stand out with beteveryday at 40/1.  He has been in contention on round 3 a lot recently, but has developed a habit of fading in the last round.   I think that means the place is more likely than first right now.  So if 40/1 is value, and he is 36/38 on Betfair then the place terms must be good (10/1).  I don't think thread can get much on, but might be worth a tenner each way and guess we can get that much.   If you are a couple of quid short, I am sure I can match that.
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« Reply #86326 on: September 05, 2014, 09:06:32 AM »

Did we manage to get on Hughes?
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TightEnd
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« Reply #86327 on: September 05, 2014, 10:03:58 AM »

Daily Report

Loss on Month £100.87


Outstanding Bets £4255.31

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29


Another frustrating day

- Kent lost in the semi final of the RLODC, really outclassed by a very efficient Warwickshire side and for us another long price ante post that came close, but not close enough -£40

 Click to see full-size image.


- 2.30 at Haydock we had the second to place for a profit of £10 but £35 of losses on two win bets and another place. Simon recommended the winner too at 16-1 but then reasonably advised the price had moved in too much, and it won at 10-1

On we go

the NFL season began with the Seahawks looking tremendous and Rodgers and the Packers a bit off their best.

 Click to see full-size image.


Looking ahead to Sunday The over-under on 49ers-Cowboys is now up to 51.5, moving 3 points over last month. Now tied for 3rd-highest O/U of Week 1 and we are on over 48 points.

Ryan Moore's announcement that he might not ride in the UK after 22nd Oct rekindled some hopes for our handicap bet, Hughes at Scratch. Hughes has a 10 win deficit and Moore a 15 win handicap start. I have no idea if anyone else on the handicap is in contention?

Roger Federer saves two match points and comes from two sets down to beat Gael Monfils in US Open.

 Click to see full-size image.


In the baskeball world cup a big win for Lithuania, 67-64 against Slovenia. they now play NZ's Tall Blacks in the last 16 and the USA play Mexico. Our bets Lithuania and USA are in the same half of the draw now, scheduled to meet in the semi-final. picture of the day there...

 Click to see full-size image.


In baseball the Orioles swept the Cincinnati Reds, thats now 8 wins in the Orioles last 10 games.

 Click to see full-size image.


They remain 9.5 games clear of the Yankees, who beat the Red Sox in extra innings

In the central the Tigers beat the Indians in extra innings to close to 1 game behind the royals at the top of the division

The Royals begin a vital series (for us) against the Yankees tonight

F1 Monza free practice one is currently underway. Interesting press conference yesterday!

 Click to see full-size image.


Front page of the racing post today. Great picture, not sure where!

 Click to see full-size image.
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typhoon13
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« Reply #86328 on: September 05, 2014, 10:06:26 AM »


Laytown
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TightEnd
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« Reply #86329 on: September 05, 2014, 10:09:08 AM »

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/racing-specials/long-term/2014-british-flat-jockeys-championship/winning-jockey

Already a move for Hughes today

If this happens then Hughes is a great bet at current prices, if it doesnt then you have a bet at very close to the right price anyway

Suggest £50 on Hughes

https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/ryan-moore/ryan-moore-exclusive-my-thoughts-on-the-jockeys-title-and-my-end-of-year-plans-040914-368.html

i was out last night so had no chance to do this. Don't think tikay saw it either

1/4 now so its thoroughly missed

on something breaking like this where you know we'll get on you can always do it and we'll settle up when online
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« Reply #86330 on: September 05, 2014, 10:10:26 AM »

Hughesy on the handicap is pretty much drawing dead thanks to the early injury, but he's a cracking bet at 10-11 for the JC.

Also, while Coral are still holding the 5/2, Madeed 5.20 Haydock tomorrow is a bet.

He was ridic unlucky last time and this is easier off the same mark. I wouldn't want to lay anything above 7/4.

Madeed 7/4 now, so another miss

do you know the handicap starting positions for the jockey's championship. is it hughes v moore +15 or is anyone else in contention?
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« Reply #86331 on: September 05, 2014, 10:10:57 AM »


"....they now play NZ's Tall Blacks......"

Too good.
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« Reply #86332 on: September 05, 2014, 10:12:21 AM »

Hey guys, haven't really been around much recently. In the last few weeks I've changed job (now working for Jaguar Land Rover rather than Williams), moved house and bought a new car! Busy busy! Nevertheless, here are my bets for the Italian GP this weekend:

Betfair
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 23/10 - recommend £5. I stick to what I said ahead of the Belgian GP, any price above evens on either Hamilton or Rosberg is value, 23/10 is madness - get on it!

Bet Victor
W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 9/4 - recommend £5. Williams will be strong and 9/4 represents value, just. The threat to this bet is Red Bull, but the Monza circuit has long straights and will favour the Mercedes powered cars in a big way, probably more than at any other point during the entire season. Massa would also be a concern, but Valtteri does appear to just have the edge on his team mate consistently this season.

PaddyPower
Group B (VET/MAS/ALO/RAI): Felipe Massa @ 9/4 - recommend £5. As above really, Williams will be strong and Felipe has a great chance of beating Red Bull/Ferrari this weekend. It's Monza so a better chance for him than at any other stage this season.

I know Tighty likes the minimum bet size here to be £5, but I would like to recommend the following £1 stabs also:

Race Winner: Daniel Ricciardo @ 17/1 with Betfair
Race Winner: Valtteri Bottas @ 16/1 with Betfair
Fastest Lap: Nico Hulkenberg @ 40/1 with Bwin
Fastest Lap: Sergio Perez @ 40/1 with Bwin

Will probably make more suggestions as the weekend progresses :-)

I won't be doing £1 bets.

£5 minimum. really it should be a higher minimum than that in terms of portfolio construction

i can scale up, make the £1 bets into fivers and increase the fiver bets

or i can just do the fiver bets

up to you, once prices come back up after FP1
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« Reply #86333 on: September 05, 2014, 10:13:05 AM »


Laytown

Laytown is beach racing? in the uk?
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« Reply #86334 on: September 05, 2014, 10:16:09 AM »

Let's just preface this by saying I know nothing about Golf, but it seemed to me there was some decent e/w value about in the BMW with Rory being such a short priced fav.
I looked through the leaderboard and really liked Horschel 33-1. As I understand it nearly all players are unfamiliar with the course yet he has shot very decent amount of birdies and may improve on the holes that caused him difficulty in the first round. He has decent all round stats and recent form. He also has a good strokes gained putting stat which may be significant due to the way the greens are playing. We get great place terms and don't give up anything against Betfair on the win part.
Have also punted Fred fav Spieth @ 16-1 who is one of the few with decent previous experience of the course, and Matt Every, who seems to be exceptional in strokes gained putting in his first round,as my banzai @ 100-1
Hope this make some sense, if not blame insomnia.

I hope Speith can put some sort of run together to get us a top 3 finish in the FedEx standings, but he doesn't seem an each way kind of guy.  

Just thinking out loud, but Furyk is stand out with beteveryday at 40/1.  He has been in contention on round 3 a lot recently, but has developed a habit of fading in the last round.   I think that means the place is more likely than first right now.  So if 40/1 is value, and he is 36/38 on Betfair then the place terms must be good (10/1).  I don't think thread can get much on, but might be worth a tenner each way and guess we can get that much.   If you are a couple of quid short, I am sure I can match that.




which of these should we be getting on? if any?



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« Reply #86335 on: September 05, 2014, 10:19:48 AM »


Laytown

Laytown is beach racing? in the uk?

History/About Laytown Races
Laytown races occupies a unique position in the Irish racing calendar as it is the only race event run on a beach under the Rules of Racing.

Many generations of people from the Meath area and the bordering countries have fond memories of their visit to the strand at Laytown and of the colour and the excitement of race day.

Laytown strand races have been in existence for one hundred and forty years. The first recorded meeting was in 1868 when races were run on the beach in conjunction with the Boyne Regatta. It is assumed that the rowing competition took place on the high tide and the racing when the tide receded. Initially the races were a side show to the regatta and were only organised when the combination of high and low tides allowed the racing on the beach at the conclusion of the rowing events. Charles Stuart Parnell, the great Home Rule leader, was one of the first stewards of the strand races. In 1901 the local Parish Priest became involved in the organisation and despite the disapproval of the Bishop of Meath the races became a well organised event. In those days strand races were quiet common being run in places throughout Ireland such as Milltown Malbay in Co Clare and nearer home at Baltray and Termonfeckin. The racing continued throughout the years and in the nineteen fifties and sixties Laytown was considered an important meeting for horses preparing for the great Galway Festival. In those days there were no all weather surfaces for training horses and the sands at Laytown were considered ideal preparation for the Galway track.

The Laytown meeting was an important cultural event in the Meath calendar. Racing was run at distances between five furlongs and two miles with a U-shaped turn at Bettystown where the horses made a colourful sweeping return before heading back to the Laytown finish. The whole beach area was a profusion of colour with racegoers, bookies, fast food outlets, ice cream vendors, hurdy gurdies, roulette tables all sharing the strand. In the midst of all of these the tree and card-trick merchants appeared, disappeared and reappeared, constantly on the look-out for the gardai.

An unfortunate accident in 1994 served as a timely reminder of the necessity of new safety measures. The U-shaped track was done away with and the Turf Club imposed restrictions on the number of runners in each race and also insisted that only experienced riders were allowed. From that date vehicles were prohibited from the beach as were all betting facilities.

The organisation of Laytown Strand Races is a huge undertaking. The committee has a lease of a three acre field in Laytown known locally for generations as “the race field”. It is a wonderful elevated site above the beach and beside the finish line and racegoers have a fine view of the races from this natural vantage point. Laytown as a racetrack doesn’t exist. The only permanent building on the course is the Gents! For several weeks before racing the beach is continually checked by senior members of the committee to determine the most suitable “bank” for racing on the day and as all beaches are dynamic and constantly changing this requires a skilled eye, achieved over many years experience. On the run up to the day the race field is transformed from a green site to a racing enclosure, with parade ring, bookies pitches, judge’s box and temporary grand-strand erected. Marquees spring up to house the bar, restaurants, weigh rooms ambulance room and secretary’s office.

During the past few years attendance, now contained in the race field, has been in the region of 5,000. This is a far cry from the halcyon days of the early 1990’s when crowds of 10000 were common.

Many celebrities have been spotted over the years. In 1950 the Aga Khan, one of the sport’s legendary owners and his wife the Begum were in attendance.

Many leading trainers support Laytown including Dermot Weld, Kevin Prendergast, Mick O’Toole, Tommy Stack and Michael Cunningham Local families have an association with this event that can be traced back several generations. The present chairman Niall Delany and his brother Eamonn are third generation supporters of this event. The Hoeys, the Crinions and the Lyons are all represented on the 2011 committee and in the past previous members of these families were actively involved.
It’s not Royal Ascot. It’s not Glorious Goodwood but Laytown Strand Races is part of the life of this east Meath area for many years. It is a surviving feature of a culture fast disappearing from these islands and it is as much a part of our heritage as Puck Fair and the Rose of Tralee.



Laytown Revealed

People travel from far and wide, including many annual overseas visitors, to see this unique event on the beach at Laytown. That word unique is bandied around a lot by promoters of events that have spurious claims to such worthiness but this spectacle is worthy of the moniker because it's the only offically approved beach racing in Europe. Crowds as large as 11,000 turn up to see it every year.

The last time that many people were on a beach in Ireland was when the native Irish were trying to drive back the hordes of invading vikings in the middle ages. The enclosures at Laytown consist of a three acre field elevated above the beach and the grandstand is hewn from steps cut into the sand dunes. Marquees are erected to use as weighing room, jockeys' room and bars etc. The course itself is a section of the 3 mile long golden strand, which is closed on the morning of the races, which take place when the tide goes out.

Course Characteristics

Racing takes place on the Laytown stand on a straight near-level course over six and seven furlong distances.

How To Get There

By Road:
46 km north of Dublin, turn off the Dublin-Belfast road (M1) Junction 7 at Julianstown.

By Rail:
There are regular train services from Drogheda and Dublin (Connolly Station) to Laytown Station.

By Bus:
There is a special bus service from Drogheda.

By Air:
Dublin is the nearest airport.

Location: Laytown is a small seaside resort in Co. Meath on Ireland's east coast. Location Map

    
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« Reply #86336 on: September 05, 2014, 10:20:51 AM »

The horse was Arbitraguer..... looks a right piece of work, and very full of itself....


I think Graham Lee is probably ahead in the handicap atm, as I think he had a seventy start, but that's purely from memory, not factual.

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« Reply #86337 on: September 05, 2014, 10:34:14 AM »

Hughesy would have needed to be pushing around 200 to have a chance on the handicap and injury means he's only on 120.

Lee, JKFanning or Wuzzin Murphy ftw.
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« Reply #86338 on: September 05, 2014, 11:06:19 AM »

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/racing-specials/long-term/2014-british-flat-jockeys-championship/winning-jockey

Already a move for Hughes today

If this happens then Hughes is a great bet at current prices, if it doesnt then you have a bet at very close to the right price anyway

Suggest £50 on Hughes

https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/ryan-moore/ryan-moore-exclusive-my-thoughts-on-the-jockeys-title-and-my-end-of-year-plans-040914-368.html

i was out last night so had no chance to do this. Don't think tikay saw it either

1/4 now so thoroughly missed

on something breaking like this where you know we'll get on you can always do it and we'll settle up when online

Fred can have £55 of my 8/11 to win £40 I got at ladbrokes if you want.
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« Reply #86339 on: September 05, 2014, 11:09:58 AM »

Mikael Barzalona (+115)   
10/1

Adam Kirby (+95)   
14/1

Andrea Atzeni (+90)   
14/1

Danny Tudhope (+95)   
15/1

Frankie Dettori (+100)   
15/1

George Baker (+110)   
15/1

Graham Lee (+85)   
15/1

Hayley Turner (+120)   
15/1

James Doyle (+100)   
15/1

Jamie Spencer (+95)   
15/1

Jim Crowley (+90)   
15/1

Joe Fanning (+85)   
15/1

Kieren Fallon (+120)   
15/1

Luke Morris (+80)   
15/1

Oisin Murphy (+105)   
15/1

Paul Hanagan (+85)   
15/1

Richard Hughes (Scratch)   
15/1

Ryan Moore (+20)   
15/1

Silvestre de Sousa (+35)   
15/1

Tom Queally (+95)   
15/1

William Buick (+70)   
15/1

Martin Harley (+95)   
33/1
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