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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 8752988 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #87195 on: September 17, 2014, 07:11:10 PM »

The wife just had a phone call from Betfair to say the £50 quid she had on the dog at 10-1 tonight was a palpable error and did she want it to run at evens or cancel the bet.

"Oh no, don't cancel it, its not an error, he definitely wanted £50 on it"

She has spent too much time over the years with Hazel Blake. Roll Eyes

Cheesy
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claypole
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« Reply #87196 on: September 17, 2014, 07:23:04 PM »

The wife just had a phone call from Betfair to say the £50 quid she had on the dog at 10-1 tonight was a palpable error and did she want it to run at evens or cancel the bet.

"Oh no, don't cancel it, its not an error, he definitely wanted £50 on it"

She has spent too much time over the years with Hazel Blake. Roll Eyes

Cheesy

Genius
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JoeBeevers
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« Reply #87197 on: September 17, 2014, 07:32:49 PM »

Yeh has to be tonight on midweek champs league action it says. Gonna watch man c v bayern but those barca ones look good. Will nasti play? 16/1 first goal or Navas at 23/1 any good?

Is it a standard stake not returned free bet jeff?
erm....risk free bet, £20 cash back if it loses. Guess that means stake returned right so don't need to look for the 10/1 plus jobbies?

Weird one.  Depends if you get the stake back if the bet wins as well as if it loses.  Seems confusing compared to most free bet offers.

£25 free bet (ie WillHill) at 10/1
if win +250
if lose zero loss

£25 refund if bet loses (ie Unibet) at 10/1
if win +250
if lose zero

Surely exactly the same thing in reality.

If the bet loses though you are +250 or +25 if you get the free bet turned into cash back into your account if it loses.  One for doobs my brain is confused.

Jeff said 'erm....risk free bet, £20 cash back if it loses'

He doesn't get an extra £20 back if it wins he gets the £20 he already had. So it's the same thing.

Jeff ideally for max ev you need a trueish 7/1+ (or close to) shot approx
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Omm
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« Reply #87198 on: September 17, 2014, 08:17:58 PM »

The wife just had a phone call from Betfair to say the £50 quid she had on the dog at 10-1 tonight was a palpable error and did she want it to run at evens or cancel the bet.

"Oh no, don't cancel it, its not an error, he definitely wanted £50 on it"

She has spent too much time over the years with Hazel Blake. Roll Eyes

Cheesy

Genius

MrsBigAdz is in trouble.
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Tal
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« Reply #87199 on: September 17, 2014, 08:19:32 PM »

The wife just had a phone call from Betfair to say the £50 quid she had on the dog at 10-1 tonight was a palpable error and did she want it to run at evens or cancel the bet.

"Oh no, don't cancel it, its not an error, he definitely wanted £50 on it"

She has spent too much time over the years with Hazel Blake. Roll Eyes

Cheesy

Genius

MrsBigAdz is in trouble.

Could have been worse. She could have lumped it on arsenal.
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BigAdz
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« Reply #87200 on: September 17, 2014, 08:57:40 PM »

The wife just had a phone call from Betfair to say the £50 quid she had on the dog at 10-1 tonight was a palpable error and did she want it to run at evens or cancel the bet.

"Oh no, don't cancel it, its not an error, he definitely wanted £50 on it"

She has spent too much time over the years with Hazel Blake. Roll Eyes

Cheesy

Genius

MrsBigAdz is in trouble.

Could have been worse. She could have lumped it on arsenal.


If its her cash, she tends to only back dead certs.

She waiting for the next Arsenal 5pur2 game.
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Tal
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« Reply #87201 on: September 17, 2014, 09:07:27 PM »

Hehe.

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sonour
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« Reply #87202 on: September 18, 2014, 01:32:34 AM »

Yeh has to be tonight on midweek champs league action it says. Gonna watch man c v bayern but those barca ones look good. Will nasti play? 16/1 first goal or Navas at 23/1 any good?

Is it a standard stake not returned free bet jeff?
erm....risk free bet, £20 cash back if it loses. Guess that means stake returned right so don't need to look for the 10/1 plus jobbies?

Weird one.  Depends if you get the stake back if the bet wins as well as if it loses.  Seems confusing compared to most free bet offers.

£25 free bet (ie WillHill) at 10/1
if win +250
if lose zero loss

£25 refund if bet loses (ie Unibet) at 10/1
if win +250
if lose zero

Surely exactly the same thing in reality.

If the bet loses though you are +250 or +25 if you get the free bet turned into cash back into your account if it loses.  One for doobs my brain is confused.

Jeff said 'erm....risk free bet, £20 cash back if it loses'

He doesn't get an extra £20 back if it wins he gets the £20 he already had. So it's the same thing.

Jeff ideally for max ev you need a trueish 7/1+ (or close to) shot approx

Agree. Free bet on lose should be placed at high odds just like Stake Not Returned.

If you place it on a true even money shot 50% of the time you will win £20 and 50% of the time you will lose your £20 Stake but receive a £20 refund so 50% of the time you will break even. So your expectancy is £10.

If you place it on a true 9/1 shot then 10% of the time you will win £180 and 90% of the time you will lose your Stake and receive your refund so you will break even. So your expectancy is £18.
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #87203 on: September 18, 2014, 08:53:08 AM »

Hey guys,

I'm not in the country at the moment, extremely busy doing admin stuff in India. Gonna post my initial pre-race Singapore GP bets early as my internet access could be a little sketchy over the next few days.

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 23/10 with Betfair Exchange. Once again, anything over evens is mental - recommend £10.

Group B (BOT/ALO/MAS/RAI): Valtteri Bottas @ 13/8 with PaddyPower. That price seems slightly too high to me, Williams should be stronger than Ferrari and Bottas is usually quicker than Felipe over a race distance - recommend £5.

Group C (BUT/MAG/HUL/PER): Nico Hulkenberg @ 10/3 with PaddyPower. Force India have a massive update for this race, probably the biggest in their history. If it works, then this is between Nico/Sergio. May well be suggesting more money on Force India drivers after FP1, but for now - recommend £5.

Hi Peter - I've seen this mentioned before about Rosberg being value at anything above evens.  Can you explain the rationale on that?  Assuming Hamilton is rated equally then if Rosberg is evens isn't that saying the rest of the field has zero chance?  Hasn't that Ricardo bloke won a couple of races this year?

Might be missing something here.  Not saying 23/10 isn't a bad bet, but surely he can't be evens.
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #87204 on: September 18, 2014, 09:11:16 AM »

I'm told Oscar Garcia will have to retire from his post as Watford manager on medical grounds.  Been in hospital for 3 days with heart issues.   All the best Oscar Sad

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TightEnd
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« Reply #87205 on: September 18, 2014, 09:54:44 AM »

Hey guys,

I'm not in the country at the moment, extremely busy doing admin stuff in India. Gonna post my initial pre-race Singapore GP bets early as my internet access could be a little sketchy over the next few days.

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 23/10 with Betfair Exchange. Once again, anything over evens is mental - recommend £10.

Group B (BOT/ALO/MAS/RAI): Valtteri Bottas @ 13/8 with PaddyPower. That price seems slightly too high to me, Williams should be stronger than Ferrari and Bottas is usually quicker than Felipe over a race distance - recommend £5.

Group C (BUT/MAG/HUL/PER): Nico Hulkenberg @ 10/3 with PaddyPower. Force India have a massive update for this race, probably the biggest in their history. If it works, then this is between Nico/Sergio. May well be suggesting more money on Force India drivers after FP1, but for now - recommend £5.

Hi Peter - I've seen this mentioned before about Rosberg being value at anything above evens.  Can you explain the rationale on that?  Assuming Hamilton is rated equally then if Rosberg is evens isn't that saying the rest of the field has zero chance?  Hasn't that Ricardo bloke won a couple of races this year?

Might be missing something here.  Not saying 23/10 isn't a bad bet, but surely he can't be evens.

We can't use PP (for the 18th time!) so the only available bet of yours here is the Rosberg one, Peter
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tikay
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« Reply #87206 on: September 18, 2014, 09:57:45 AM »

Hey guys,

I'm not in the country at the moment, extremely busy doing admin stuff in India. Gonna post my initial pre-race Singapore GP bets early as my internet access could be a little sketchy over the next few days.

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 23/10 with Betfair Exchange. Once again, anything over evens is mental - recommend £10.

Group B (BOT/ALO/MAS/RAI): Valtteri Bottas @ 13/8 with PaddyPower. That price seems slightly too high to me, Williams should be stronger than Ferrari and Bottas is usually quicker than Felipe over a race distance - recommend £5.

Group C (BUT/MAG/HUL/PER): Nico Hulkenberg @ 10/3 with PaddyPower. Force India have a massive update for this race, probably the biggest in their history. If it works, then this is between Nico/Sergio. May well be suggesting more money on Force India drivers after FP1, but for now - recommend £5.

Hi Peter - I've seen this mentioned before about Rosberg being value at anything above evens.  Can you explain the rationale on that?  Assuming Hamilton is rated equally then if Rosberg is evens isn't that saying the rest of the field has zero chance?  Hasn't that Ricardo bloke won a couple of races this year?

Might be missing something here.  Not saying 23/10 isn't a bad bet, but surely he can't be evens.

We can't use PP (for the 18th time!) so the only available bet of yours here is the Rosberg one, Peter

True, but plenty others can, so if it is only PP who have the price, Pete ought to keep posting them.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #87207 on: September 18, 2014, 10:11:17 AM »

Daily Report

Profit on Month £172.54

Outstanding Bets £4390.15

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29


The end of the cricket season and with it £100 of losses on

a) £20 Derbyshire for Division 2, slow away, never featured

b) £80 Evans Top Warwickshire batsman. Laurie Evans made his mark in the one day sphere this season but was dropped from the county championship team. His run scoring prospects were diminished by the emergence of the 19yo Sam Hain, a future England batsman if you ever did see one

no other bets completed yesterday


- The New York Yankees won last night. Now need 11 wins from 11 to stop our bet winning

- The Kansas City Royals beat the Chicago White Sox 6-2. Just when you think they are slipping out of contention, back they come because the Detroit Tigers lost to the Twins

Nori Aoki hit 11 runs in the 3 game set against the CWS, a franchise record

 Click to see full-size image.


Yordano Ventura, our favourite rookie pitcher secured his 13th win of the season, the most by any Royals rookie since 1979

 Click to see full-size image.


So with only 10 games of the regular season to go the Royals are only 0.5 games back from the Tigers to win the division. Dramatic stuff. Even more dramatic is that on Friday night the Royals host the Tigers in the first of a three game series.

The Royals have done badly in their head-to-heads with the Tigers this season. Now would be the time to reverse that

We have 11/2 about the Royals winning the division against a 1/5 ante-post favourite. Its been a great run on the bet.

Today is the big day

 Click to see full-size image.


final polls in the No 51- 52 Yes 48-49 region whicgh would be perfect for our book. Questions remain...

 Click to see full-size image.


 


The NFL.

Note the comments about Aaron Donald here https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/09/17/race-for-rookie-of-the-year-week-2-3/

We have 14-1 Defensive rookie of the year



Tonight the Atlanta Falcons host the Buccs. Watch Matt Ryan, we have 16-1 most regular season passing yards

After two games http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing

It should be a bumper night for him tonight. Ryan completed 15 passes 20 or more yards downfield in 2013. He already has seven such completions in 2014. It helps that his great receivers Julkio Jones and Roddy White are playing, they were injured last year


   
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arbboy
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« Reply #87208 on: September 18, 2014, 12:40:32 PM »

One for the arbers.  Hills having originally ducked our 45-50% yes vote selection by going 10/11 for days have now (highly likely liability driven only) gone 11/10 with people asking for chunks shade of odds on on betfair for those that don't mind tying money up for a day.  Easy risk free return.
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« Reply #87209 on: September 18, 2014, 01:00:58 PM »

Tighty

What price do you think Kyle Fuller should be for defensive rookie now that Tillman out for the season?
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