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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 8753128 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #87255 on: September 19, 2014, 09:10:02 AM »

Daily Report

Profit on Month £22.54

Outstanding Bets £4240.15

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29

A loss of £150 overnight

The final indyref result was

No 2,001,926 Yes 1,617,989

No wins by 55.3% to 44.7%

This was our bet's armageddon scenario with £100 on 45-50% and a £50 yes saver

What sunk us was quite unexpected. A problem with differential turnout

Nationally, turnout 84%, in some "no" voting councils turnout over 90% but in the two big city yes councils, Glasgow and Dundee, turnout only 75 and 78% respectively. If they had turned out to national average with the same voting split we sail home

Not quite sure i have seen the correct explanation for this overnight phenomenon yet. The Yes voters in Glasgow and Dundee should have been engaged and voting en masse but the higher turnout nationally definitely favoured No

shy no's did for us, or non-voting yesses?

 Click to see full-size image.


Anyway, on with the sport  

In the NFL last night the Atlanta Falcons pulverised the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55-14. The Falcons covered the overs by themselves before the third quarter was over!

We had some good news, which was then once again muted by the one sided natured of the game

Our 16-1 most passing yards bet Matt Ryan threw for 286 yards in under three quarters, but at 55-0 was then pulled from the game and his back-up inserted, depriving us of another 400 yard night. In the short term, frustrating, but this is a bet with a real chance of scooping, especially if the terrific Julio Jones stays fit

Devin Hester had a punt return TD, rush TD, forced fumble, recovered fumble. First time a player has done all that in 1 game in NFL history. He also broke Deion Sanders' return TD record. Wasn't tackled all night either

 Click to see full-size image.


In the MLB the Yankees walked off, 3-2 winners against the Rays. 10 out of 10 wins now needed to prevent our bet winning . After 44.7% overnight, anything can happen!

 Click to see full-size image.


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doubleup
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« Reply #87256 on: September 19, 2014, 09:12:43 AM »


How did Fred do with that Scottish vote thing?




haha - I remember that part of the show - the yes/no game.  We were easily pleased in those days.
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BigAdz
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« Reply #87257 on: September 19, 2014, 09:17:30 AM »

Rumour has it The Three Amigos were last seen driving a convoy of trucks laden with Tenants Extra and White Lightening up to Scotland on Wednesday evening to ensure the Yes vote didn't turn out....
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« Reply #87258 on: September 19, 2014, 09:17:56 AM »

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tikay
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« Reply #87259 on: September 19, 2014, 09:20:14 AM »


How did Fred do with that Scottish vote thing?




haha - I remember that part of the show - the yes/no game.  We were easily pleased in those days.

What? Best TV "quiz" ever.

How did you get here?

By train

Train?

Yes

BONG


And if the Guest managed a whole minute without saying "yes" or "no", they won FIVE POUNDS.


We'd nearly wet ourselves with excitement.
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Tal
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« Reply #87260 on: September 19, 2014, 09:45:55 AM »

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Nope. Give up.

Where's Steve Bruce?
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« Reply #87261 on: September 19, 2014, 10:12:18 AM »

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DungBeetle
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« Reply #87262 on: September 19, 2014, 10:17:05 AM »

Chompy - what are your views on Notts Country this season?  I see they are dogs at home to Oldham on Saturday which surprised me.  I certainly don't think they are one of the no hopers in the division.


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Shrimper1
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« Reply #87263 on: September 19, 2014, 10:19:42 AM »

May as well try and make it third time lucky.

Recommend Jack Payne first goalscorer York v Southend

Felt like not posting this but would have been incorrect to do so as nothing has changed and it is still a value bet.

The reasoning is exactly the same as my post on monday for Jack to score the first goal at Cheltenham. The only very slight difference is Southend are roughly 1% less likely to be the team who scores the first goal and thus making Jack marginally less likely to be first goalscorer.
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scotty2hatty
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« Reply #87264 on: September 19, 2014, 10:21:12 AM »

Dundee was 58% yes I believe. Does that mean we're independent?
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Shrimper1
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« Reply #87265 on: September 19, 2014, 10:34:36 AM »

May as well try and make it third time lucky.

Recommend Jack Payne first goalscorer York v Southend

Felt like not posting this but would have been incorrect to do so as nothing has changed and it is still a value bet.

The reasoning is exactly the same as my post on monday for Jack to score the first goal at Cheltenham. The only very slight difference is Southend are roughly 1% less likely to be the team who scores the first goal and thus making Jack marginally less likely to be first goalscorer.


Should have stated that is at 20-1 with fred, hills, coral
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DropTheHammer
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« Reply #87266 on: September 19, 2014, 10:48:37 AM »

May as well try and make it third time lucky.

Recommend Jack Payne first goalscorer York v Southend

Felt like not posting this but would have been incorrect to do so as nothing has changed and it is still a value bet.

No, keep posting if it's a value bet pls-it's a great home for my £4 free bets this week Smiley
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DropTheHammer
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« Reply #87267 on: September 19, 2014, 10:52:42 AM »

Laddies are doing a nice offer of a free bet back on losing bets if Citeh beat Chelski on Sunday, up to £25. I feel predicting the score in this one is too difficult so will be plumping for Aguero FGS, if he's starting, Costa if not.
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arbboy
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« Reply #87268 on: September 19, 2014, 10:53:51 AM »

Dundee was 58% yes I believe. Does that mean we're independent?
if you become independent does that mean you will be allowed to run your coral shop in a. Independent manner and actually take a bet???
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scotty2hatty
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« Reply #87269 on: September 19, 2014, 11:01:10 AM »

Dundee was 58% yes I believe. Does that mean we're independent?
if you become independent does that mean you will be allowed to run your coral shop in a. Independent manner and actually take a bet???

Very good. Training begins on Monday, I'll see if I can take this to the top!
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