Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

I'm looking for a superimposed wedding...

 

Do like how far away the bottle is, mind.

[horseplayer]

No wedding pic im afraid Tal

Not yet anyway

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £542.54

Outstanding Bets £3977.51

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29

A profit of £445 yesterday

£455 won on Leicester City's win over Manchester United. Superb stuff from Dubai (especially yesterday re-assuring the nervous ninny here) with four seperate winners, Leicester win, Leicester DNB, Leicester and the Draw, Leicester +1  

Um, back of the net



Couple of little pieces of trivia

- the first time in 853 Premier League games that Man U have lost from two goals up. Didn't have this back four in too many of those 853 though..

 

- The sensational Jamie Vardy (goal, won two penalties, four assists) became the first player ever to play a league game against Manchester United and FC United of Manchester (for Stocksbridge Park Steels in Evostik one north three years ago)

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Two final thoughts on the game, very astute tactically from Nigel Pearson and the Home crowd are going to be worth a goal in some games. Anyway, at this early stage our bets on Leicester to finish top half at 6-1 down look to have some legs, for a season long sweat

a loser yesterday

-£10 Rosberg in Singapore, dead before they left the grid after the electronics problems afflicted the car.

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Hamilton took the lead in the F1 WDC, went short odds on to become world champion with 5 races remaining

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So, onto ongoing positions

Crystal Palace beat Everton 3-2 away, a terrific result for our phalanx of Palace season bets which we regard now with Ant-icipation rather than trepidation



The WBA win at Tottenham was disappointing news for our relegation bet on them

Rooney did not score for Manchester United

Quite a strange footballing day all round really

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Away from Football the Kansas City Royals beat the Detroit Tigers 5-2 with Nori Aoki knocking in 2 runs. this took the Royals back 1.5 games behind the Tigers in the race for the AL Central with 7 games to go. Perhaps of more relevance, given we have an 18-1 ticket for half the bet on the Royals winning the American league itself, the win took the Royals back to the top wild card spot alongside the Oakland Athletics

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In the champions league T20 KKR beat the Lahore Lions by 4 wickets in their first game of the group. The difference? Our old friend the sensational spinner Sunil Narine who took 3-9 in 4 overs

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Monday NFL round up time....

Our superbowl and conference bet the Philadelphia Eagles are the 1st team in NFL History to win their first 3 games of season after trailing by 10+ points in each game. One of three remaining unbeaten teams (Bengals, Cardinals), they beat the Redskins 37-34 in a smashmouth victory



Quarterback Nick Foles took fearful punishement, with the Eagles down to their last five fit offensive linemen in front of him, yet became the only QB to throw for over 300 yards in each of the first 3 weeks of the season

Our other NFC conference and superbowl bet the Packers went down at the Lions to go to 1-2 on the season. In a game in which defenses dominated, surprisingly, it was clear the Aaron Rodgers's team is not yet firing

We have the Steelers to win the AFC and they had a great win at the Panthers 37-19 to go 2-1 on the season

Amongst divisional bets, AFC West hopes the San Diego chargers beat the Bills to go to the top of the division alongside Denver

Miami, who we have to finish bottom of the AFC East, lost at home 35-14 to the Kansas City Chiefs and are currently 4th

The Rams, our forlorn NFC West hope, lost 34-31 to the Cowboys from 21-0 up and should have won.

The Bengals, who we have to concede least points, pulverised the Titans at home 33-7 and have indeed conceded the least points three games into the season. Definitely a case that they have the best defense in football, and likely to be a good sweat for the bet

Player bets

16-1 e/w on Matt Ryan most passing yards must have a shout this season. Currently second

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing

12-1 e/w Julio Jones most receiving yards also has a shout, currently leading

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/receiving

Jamaal Charles missed his second game for the Chiefs, injured, so hopes of the trifecta in the sub markets look unlikely at this early stage

Amongst the Rookies, in the Panthers loss to the Steelers last night Kelvin Benjamin (20-1 offensive rookie of the year) caught 8 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown, on national television (important for these awards)

Brandin Cooks 8 catches for 74 yards for the Saints, and currently on pace to catch 96 passes this season. Definitely in the mix for this at 10-1

Finally, every point scored in the Pats-Raiders game was scored by a-kowski. This probably only appeals to me

[typhoon13]

Excellent report as usual

Great call Dubai

[Marky147]

Great stuff Tighty, and well done everyone who dived on Pearson's mob to turn United over!

[BigAdz]

Excellent report as usual

Great call Dubai

Oh to be able to see every bet he places...

[KitKeeper]

Might be a case of the horse already bolting, but Betway have Leicester City's Leonardo Ulloa at 66/1 to be Premier League top scorer. All other firms are 33s or less.

Considering the fairly friendly run of games they have now, and the fact he's scored five goals including against some tough opponents, could this still be each way value with 4 places?

He looks mighty handy in this division...

Someone is keen to back it i just laid nearly £50 at under 9/1 on bf for top 4 finish. 66/1 looks a fair price ew if you can get it.  GL getting more than £2 on it

£5 e/w... Nae bother.

[TightEnd]

Might be a case of the horse already bolting, but Betway have Leicester City's Leonardo Ulloa at 66/1 to be Premier League top scorer. All other firms are 33s or less.

Considering the fairly friendly run of games they have now, and the fact he's scored five goals including against some tough opponents, could this still be each way value with 4 places?

He looks mighty handy in this division...

Someone is keen to back it i just laid nearly £50 at under 9/1 on bf for top 4 finish. 66/1 looks a fair price ew if you can get it.  GL getting more than £2 on it

£5 e/w... Nae bother.

Hi we won't bet with Betway. If you read back 15 pages or so you'll see some posters' experiences with Betway that might have you thinking

On Ulloa, yes a terrific start and 66/1 looks a fun bet. I would caution though that if it wins it might be your only bet with Betway, and that a lot of their prices seem illusory at best

you've also got to hope they are around in 9 months!

keep the ideas coming though!

[TightEnd]

Can we begin discussions on the Ryder Cup please?

we have plenty of knowledgeable golf people (and Adz  ) and whilst of course we don't HAVE to have a bet, if there is value it would be nice to know it to have whilst we are watching what is always a great spectacle

there's no rush, of course (in before doubleup)

Some of the markets

Europe 4/6 USA 7/4 in the outright

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/winner

6/1 the field Top American

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-american

4/1 the field 7/1 bar Rory Top European

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-european

There are six debutants including our friend Jordan Speith. How is Jordan's temparament going to hold up in the cauldron of Gleneagles (that's enough cliches)

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-debutant

Winning margin. 1-2 points is favourite. This make sense given the outright is 4/6 7/4?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/winning-margin


loads more markets at http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup

in principle we could have a portfolio for the weekend...


all ideas welcome

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Quiz question

The PGA Centenary Course at Gleneagles is the only golf course in Scotland designed by?

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[horseplayer]

Steve Bruce?!

Sbi betting who is a good guy and a good judge is doing a player matchplay profile thingy next two days ill ask him if its ok and if he agrees will post it on here

[horseplayer]

[doubleup]

Ryder Cup Day 1 correct scores

There are some quite big differences between the odds for the fourballs and the foursomes

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/day-1-fourballs-correct-score

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/day-1-foursomes-correct-score

I think we debated this last year and didn't come to any conclusion about whether ties were more likely in the foursomes than the fourballs.  Intuitively the foursomes should have more ties but there wasn't any empirical evidence for this iirc.

Anyway we don't know who will be playing yet, so as Europe are favourites, I have assumed that they will be 5/4 to win a match with the US at 13/8 and the tie 13/2.

This means that the (decimal) odds of Europe's points in a session are:


0     31.5
.5    25
1     6.6
1.5   7.7
2     4
2.5  7.3
3    5.9
3.5  21.3
4     25.6

So maybe a slight edge on foursomes USA 3-1 @ 13/2?

Any thoughts?

[geoff123]

Aussie Rules

Well for those that watched it, the Hawthorn/Port Adelaide game almost went to script with Port's fitness the main factor in the last 10 minutes and almost snatching it at the death. Next season they will be a stand out bet to make the finals. The grand final now is between the two stand out teams with little to choose between them.  Only thing is i think whoever wins it will be by a small margin.  Perhaps a small bet might be to find the best player. Sydney are a team of superstars and all their front men will score, but if Hawthorn are to win then they will need Jarryd Roughead to have a massive game (scored 6 goals against Port Adelaide). Perhaps 5 quid on him to win the Norm Smith medal at 15/1. Good luck.

[BigAdz]

Rory was on the Sunday Goals show and, to these ears, I got the impression he may have a few knocks with Sergio in the Ryder C.

Sergio has an already impressive record in the Cup and is pretty much sure of 4/5 games(unless he plays so badly he gets subbed).

He plays against the Yanks all year, and so will probably be able to tell Mcginley who he stands a best chance against.

Add this all together and I think he is certainly a knocking, almost e/w bet to nothing, for Top Euro @7s, and I would probably have a half of that on overall at 12s

[KitKeeper]

Might be a case of the horse already bolting, but Betway have Leicester City's Leonardo Ulloa at 66/1 to be Premier League top scorer. All other firms are 33s or less.

Considering the fairly friendly run of games they have now, and the fact he's scored five goals including against some tough opponents, could this still be each way value with 4 places?

He looks mighty handy in this division...

Someone is keen to back it i just laid nearly £50 at under 9/1 on bf for top 4 finish. 66/1 looks a fair price ew if you can get it.  GL getting more than £2 on it

£5 e/w... Nae bother.

Hi we won't bet with Betway. If you read back 15 pages or so you'll see some posters' experiences with Betway that might have you thinking

On Ulloa, yes a terrific start and 66/1 looks a fun bet. I would caution though that if it wins it might be your only bet with Betway, and that a lot of their prices seem illusory at best

you've also got to hope they are around in 9 months!

keep the ideas coming though!

Interesting stuff. Never thought of a scenario involving them not being here in may.

They paid me out quick enough on a 20/1 shot yesterday, mind. I will keep an eagle eye out.