Tips for Tikay

[DropTheHammer]

Afternoon Mr T.

Tomorrow the Kuala Lumpar tennis begins. It is a weak tournament with an odds on favourite in Nishikori. I think there is some value in backing Nick Kyrgios. He is deemed to be the future of Australian tennis and if he is then this is the sort of weak tournament that he should do well in. At 16-1 I would suggest each way but he has to meet Nishikori before the final and if he wins that he could become tournament favourite.

Suggest £10 win Kyrgios @ 16-1 with Ladbrokes or Paddy Power.

Gone out to 20-1 on PP. Lots of interest for people on BF at 16.5 for the arbers out there...

[edgascoigne]

Emmanuel College won it the year I...left.

The presence of a single prodigy far outweighs the collective efforts of a strong team, IMO. Guttenplan a classic example.

[redarmi]

And any nfl bets for tonight Tighty for the late night workers?

cheers

Jets number 1 run offense and run defense in football through 2 weeks

in particular run defense and scheme is brutal (Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson). Tough to see Chicago doing much through the ground

Jets will have to blitz a lot to knock Cutler out of stride because they do not match up well in the secondary and Marshall/Jeffrey should have big nights otherwise

the Jets are first running the ball, averaging 179 rushing yards per game.  They have great success running the ball right up the middle behind Mangold. Bears are lightwight on the defensive front, Stephen Paea pass rushes but doesn't stop the run well

the Jets running game splits Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson. Ivory is the better back. He's made 15 defenders miss in two games, Johnson only 2

Ivory week 1 100+ yds vs Oakland 10 carries, wk 2 40+ vs Green Bay 13 carries

Johnson 68 on 13 carries, 21 on 12 carries in the two games

Ivory should go over quotes around 60 yards http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/chicago-bears-at-new-york-jets/total-rushing-yds-chris-ivory

He's also 9-1 first TD but here you do have the risk that the Bears can go high octane and score out of the blocks

Seems a bit unlucky to have 44 yards so far and not a single rushing yard........

[DMorgan]

shouldn't 1/4 be 1/10 for those who like a shortie?

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-snp-leader

You're hired

[Kmac84]

The Jets doing there best to screw this bet up?

And they do know you need TD's to win, yeah? 

[Tal]

Emmanuel College won it the year I...left.

The presence of a single prodigy far outweighs the collective efforts of a strong team, IMO. Guttenplan a classic example.

Definitely a huge factor, agreed.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £542.54

Outstanding Bets £3977.51

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29

No bets completed yesterday

Cleveland. The final frontier. Well almost the final frontier for the Kansas City Royals, 1.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers in their tense race for the AL Central pennant that has eluded them for over 30 years

A month ago the Royals were 4-2 down after 9.5 innings at the Indians when the rain came. They had to resume the game yesterday, before their scheduled game against the same opponent

The Royals scored a run, and got the tying run on base but couldn't pull off the comeback and lost 4-3 to fall two games behind the Tigers with 7 games to go

The Tigers then proceeded to lose to the Chicago White Sox last night 2-0 so this left the door ajar for our 11/2 ante-post plucky underdog

The Royals took advantage, beating the Indians 2-0 behind six scoreless innings from starting pitcher Danny Duffy

Click to see full-size image.

 

Suddenly, only a game behind the Tigers, the race was back on

Elsewhere in the league, divisions have been decided, for example the Orioles last night beat the Yankees to secure home field advantage throughout the play-offs,

Click to see full-size image.

but the AL Central looks like it might go down to the last game

Six games each to go the Royals are away at the Indians and the White Sox, the Tigers away at the White Sox and then the Twins

the Regular season finishes on Sunday

Can the Royals bats finally get hot? Great pitching and defense all year, but when it has really mattered they haven't scored the runs

156 games into a 162 game season, there is a sweat on.

Meanwhile in a Gleneagles hotel, the first official photo of the European Ryder cup team is released

Click to see full-size image.

Advantage USA

This morning, Advantage Scotland. Should be a spectacular event

Click to see full-size image.

Strictly come dancing starts this Friday. Our lad, Thom Evans, is in EVERY tabloid, and is into 4-1 second favourite behind Pixie Lott. Whoever his PR is is doing a grand job for us. We are on Thom at 8/1

Click to see full-size image.

 

[tikay]

What a great sweat this baseball has become, Rich.

162 game season, & with 156 behind us, just one game in it.

What happens if they finish tied on number of games won?

[TightEnd]

What happens if they finish tied on number of games won?

"One-game tiebreakers are played between teams tied for a division championship or a league's second wildcard berth. These games are to be played the day after the season is scheduled to end. Home-field advantage is determined....

Breaking ties without playoff games

    The team with the best record in head to head play.
    The team with the best overall record in intradivision games.
    The team with the best overall record in intraleague games.
    The team with the best record in the final 81 games of the season, ignoring interleague play.
    The team with the best record in the final 82 games of the season (providing the game added is not between the tied teams), extending backward until the tie is broken (Interleague games are skipped and ignored in this process.)"

Detroit would have home advantage, the Royals would be on the South Side of Chicago so a quick hop across from Illinois to Mchigan to play it

[tikay]

What happens if they finish tied on number of games won?

"One-game tiebreakers are played between teams tied for a division championship or a league's second wildcard berth. These games are to be played the day after the season is scheduled to end. Home-field advantage is determined....

Breaking ties without playoff games

    The team with the best record in head to head play.
    The team with the best overall record in intradivision games.
    The team with the best overall record in intraleague games.
    The team with the best record in the final 81 games of the season, ignoring interleague play.
    The team with the best record in the final 82 games of the season (providing the game added is not between the tied teams), extending backward until the tie is broken (Interleague games are skipped and ignored in this process.)"

Detroit would have home advantage, the Royals would be on the South Side of Chicago so a quick hop across from Illinois to Mchigan to play it

Crikey. Think I'll take your word for that.

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/specials

Presume there is no value there but be good if someone told us differently

[icles test]

Thought the real value looks to be backing top americans/top european @ eachway top3 1/4. Should be value in being able to exclude bottom four who wont play enough.

[horseplayer]

Im sure serious golf punters already know this but anyway

http://adamsarson.com/match-play-records/

As the title says match play records of individual players

[TightEnd]

current tft Ryder Cup bet suggestions/cogitations

looking to have a portfolio in place Thurs night

BigAdz: Garcia e/w top Euro 7-1 (icles test supports the idea of the front of the market in the top US/Euro as the rookies won't play the number of games to be in the hunt)

tikay: Tempted by the USA at 9/5

doubleup on the golf thread : US to win first morning foursomes (3-1 it must be, maybe 2.5-1.5?) 6-1

doubleup on the golf thread: Kaymer top scorer 20-1 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4


room for plenty more ideas, disagreement with the above, agreement with the above, research and navel gazing



 

[AndrewT]

Question for Tal.  How would you price up UC pre event assuming all the major uni's were present as usual?  Who would be fav?

Difficult one, as you get four (well, technically five) new faces each year. Plus the Oxbridge colleges aren't guaranteed a place: they are only allowed to send a small number of colleges through. At Cambridge, it was decided by a college quiz league, and I assume it is similar at the lesser place.

Manchester should be reasonably good every year. It has 40,000 students to choose from. Pembroke Cambridge for example by comparison has about 650.

The value bets for a UC market may well be institutions geared towards mature students - Open University or Birkbeck College - who might get passed over by a market-setter not paying attention and leaning towards Oxbridge.