Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

For doobs and any sick FGS treble hunters: Spurs XI:
Vorm, Naughton, Fazio, Vertonghen, Davies; Bentaleb, Stambouli; Lennon (c), Paulinho, Townsend; Soldado.

So that's three people capable of scoring a goal in Soldado, Vertonghen and Paulinho (in that order. Just).

Soldado will be on pens, which could be useful with Lennon and Townsend on the wings. Lennon captain tonight, apparently. Tiny armband required.

[DropTheHammer]

4th time lucky hopefully!!!!!

Recommend Jack Payne firstscorer (18-1 with vee cee, cooral) and anytime scorer (13-2 vee cee)  Southend v Shrewbury.

Same reasons as posted the last three times with slight advantage this time that the shrimpers are at home, albeit facing a team of very similar ability.

Only thing to add is that i am keen now to include him as an anytime scorer than previous. Brown's confidence in him is growing, as it should with his impressive performances and is leaving him on the pitch for the majority of the game, just bringing him off for the last few minutes.

Whilst it is clearly value for both i just wanted to check whether my calculations are correct for anytime scorer. I have him in at 4-1, which correlates with the bookies prices for players much shorter in the betting (price Jack should be).

Can one of you maths gurus check if it correct.

Firast of all my assumptions are that Jack scores 16% of Southend's goals and have a goal expectancy of 1.3 (lets assume these are correct, and goal expectancy certainly can not really be lower, and our edge is that we think/know Jack scores a higher percentage of goals than the books think)

My calcs were: first southend goal he is 16% so 5.25 to 1 and then they are in for another .3 of a goal so (.3 x .16) about 19-1.

These are the chances of him scoring so to work it out need to find the chances of him not scoring. So multiply the inverse of 5.25 and 19-1 to get the chance of him scoring. So 1.19 x 1.052 = 1.25.

He is 1.25 not to score so 4-1 to score. Is that correct?

i missed the better price a little

but we'll give it another go.

Southend United v Shrewsbury Town Jack Payne (1st Goalscorer - 90 Mins) Odds: 16/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  170.00
Southend United v Shrewsbury Town Jack Payne (Anytime Goalscorer - 90 Mins) Odds: 6/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  70.00

Up at 20-1 Hills if anyone wants some, 7-1 Anytime

[DropTheHammer]

I don't know who is starting tonight but an each way double on Remy and somebody from Man City is even better.  Obviously could damage an account but if you have a bullet proof beteveryday account with lots of punting on it.   I don't think Spurs are strong enough to make it a treble. 

I won't be doing this personally, as my Beteveryday account is fairly valuable.

I'm all over that, both are in the starting lineups.

[Tal]

Soldado FGS 5/1 against a weakened Forest side with butter me up, as of five minutes ago.

[Mark_Porter]

Tal, what's your view on Spurs this season?

I watched the WBA game on Saturday and they were terrible. I really thought Poch would get them going this season but that performance... has he had much of an impact on style of football?

Squad looks like it has a lot of driftwood in it to me.

Contemplating lumping on Arsenal this weekend. Want to see evens.

[Tal]

Tal, what's your view on Spurs this season?

I watched the WBA game on Saturday and they were terrible. I really thought Poch would get them going this season but that performance... has he had much of an impact on style of football?

Squad looks like it has a lot of driftwood in it to me.

Contemplating lumping on Arsenal this weekend. Want to see evens.

Desperate for a striker who can hold the ball up and offer a presence. Really wanted Bony. Wenger wins derbies. Can't believe you'll get evens (think even Honest Dubai Turf Accountants closes early that evening)

Will probably be won by a mistake and, frankly, there are more of those in lily white these days. Usual clichés about it being anyone's game, spurs' new players have a year under their belt and so on.

Worst of all, it's a nightmare on this thread when all the gooners crawl out like in the Thriller video.



Chap in the local this evening said he was looking for someone to lay him 4/1 on Forest tonight. 10 on betfair and I'm still sweating...

[Marky147]

Gregory Benoist picks Ectot in the Arc, which is a strong vote of confidence, given that his other option was a horse he had won 2 classics on.

Dettori probably would have gotten the ride had he opted for Avenir Certain, so a double win, imo.

[BigAdz]

Tal, what's your view on Spurs this season?

I watched the WBA game on Saturday and they were terrible. I really thought Poch would get them going this season but that performance... has he had much of an impact on style of football?

Squad looks like it has a lot of driftwood in it to me.

Contemplating lumping on Arsenal this weekend. Want to see evens.

Desperate for a striker who can hold the ball up and offer a presence. Really wanted Bony. Wenger wins derbies. Can't believe you'll get evens (think even Honest Dubai Turf Accountants closes early that evening)

Will probably be won by a mistake and, frankly, there are more of those in lily white these days. Usual clichés about it being anyone's game, spurs' new players have a year under their belt and so on.

Worst of all, it's a nightmare on this thread when all the gooners crawl out like in the Thriller video.



Chap in the local this evening said he was looking for someone to lay him 4/1 on Forest tonight. 10 on betfair and I'm still sweating...

Yaggedy Yaggedy. Yup the goonners are never after you the other Bet 365 are we.........LIQ

[tikay]

4th time lucky hopefully!!!!!

Recommend Jack Payne firstscorer (18-1 with vee cee, cooral) and anytime scorer (13-2 vee cee)  Southend v Shrewbury.

Same reasons as posted the last three times with slight advantage this time that the shrimpers are at home, albeit facing a team of very similar ability.

Only thing to add is that i am keen now to include him as an anytime scorer than previous. Brown's confidence in him is growing, as it should with his impressive performances and is leaving him on the pitch for the majority of the game, just bringing him off for the last few minutes.

Whilst it is clearly value for both i just wanted to check whether my calculations are correct for anytime scorer. I have him in at 4-1, which correlates with the bookies prices for players much shorter in the betting (price Jack should be).

Can one of you maths gurus check if it correct.

Firast of all my assumptions are that Jack scores 16% of Southend's goals and have a goal expectancy of 1.3 (lets assume these are correct, and goal expectancy certainly can not really be lower, and our edge is that we think/know Jack scores a higher percentage of goals than the books think)

My calcs were: first southend goal he is 16% so 5.25 to 1 and then they are in for another .3 of a goal so (.3 x .16) about 19-1.

These are the chances of him scoring so to work it out need to find the chances of him not scoring. So multiply the inverse of 5.25 and 19-1 to get the chance of him scoring. So 1.19 x 1.052 = 1.25.

He is 1.25 not to score so 4-1 to score. Is that correct?

Yo shrimpy.

Loving your approach. OK, we've not hit gold yet, but you seem to get value.

Good luck this weekend. In theory, how can we lose?

[edgascoigne]

In Edinburgh for ryder cup- can someone point me in the direction of a max bet on it please to sweat

Halved matches in the 4balls.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £506.29

Outstanding Bets £3991.26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29

A loss of £30 yesterday

Loic Remy was not a goalscorer in Chelsea's 2-1 Capital One Cup Victory over Bolton Wanderers

Ongoing Positions

Last night Guernsey equalised in the 86th minute to draw 1-1 at home to Ramsgate. Guernsey are currently 8th in Ryman One South, already 12 points behind runaway leaders Burgess Hill Town (unbeaten, 30 points from 36 possible)

In the CLT20 yesterday the Perth Scorchers lost their second game, to reigning IPL champions KKR. Once again Narine was the match-winner for KKR, taking another 4 wickets, and the Scorchers tried to defend 152, took early wickets but failed to hold on. Yadav took KKRhome with 3 wickets and two balls to spare

Click to see full-size image.

This was KKR's 12th consecutive T20 win across competitions, which is quite something in a coin-flipping format. 

In the MLB the large lady is warbling in the AL Central. The Tigers beat the Wite Sox 6-1 in an early game. The Royals then lost 6-4 at the Indians to fall 2 games behind with 4 games to play, the regular season ending on Sunday

"Gregory Benoist has decided to ride impressive Prix Niel winner Ectot over unbeaten dual-Classic heroine Avenir Certain in next week's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.

According to Jour De Galop, Benoist's decision to ride Ectot, who is 7-1 with bet365, Ladbrokes, means that Christophe Lemaire will partner Avenir Certain."

We are sitting on a pre-trial 25-1

also yesterday

Click to see full-size image.

At Gleneagles, Mr Mickelson turned a convivial warm-up week into something more adversarial with his litigation comments. Earlier in the week i noticed this

"McDowell on McIlroy: 'The dynamic between the two of us has changed forever. I found the betterball with him at Medinah very difficult.'

which suggests Rory and Sergio, and keeping the two Northern Irishmen apart, even in the team room

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

BE's Ryder Cup article is free to read

http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/65

I am going to pull together a suggested portfolio in a bit combining this with thoughts on here

Will leave plenty of room for bets on each day, once pairings are known etc 

[Doobs]

Coral are going 4/5 Europe right now for Ryder Cup (max £50, sure thread will be less, but worth a look, maybe they'll give us £25?)

[Doobs]

Not for thread obviously, but for those with unrestricted ShyBet accounts, they are doing money back as free bet if USA wins the Ryder Cup.  This makes lots of players in the top european and top us markets very good value.  They are top priced on BE's picks in the Top us player market for instance.  

They will refund up to £150, if you can get that much on with them.

[tikay]

In Edinburgh for ryder cup- can someone point me in the direction of a max bet on it please to sweat

Halved matches in the 4balls.

Ha!

Did we have a huge debate on the theory of this in the last Ryder Cup? Pretty sure we did. Awesome stuff as I recall. Probably lost, mind.