Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

At the point Anand resigned, one of the engines (chess computers) had worked out a checkmate in sixteen moves against any defence. In the old days (I'm talking probably until the War), if a player spotted a mate, he could declare it ("I declare mate in six moves, sir, against any defence") and the opponent, out of a sense of etiquette, would allow him to play it, rather than resigning a lost position.

Great analysis, Tighty.

[TightEnd]

£80 on Bristol City to beat Posh on Friday please, 13-8 with 356.

Taylor, Maddison and Baldwin are all out and Ferguson will be on his way before much longer. He's completely lost the plot and is only still there now because of past achievements.

There's no belief and TV games have been tough for a while. There could be carnage here, the crowd's unlikely to be over 5,000 and it's again going to be like a library.

We have zero creativity in midfield and Santos is not ready.

Brizzle have lost their last two, against Swindon and Preston, and this is a key game for them. They'll go out pumped up, expecting tough opposition and will be surprised at how easy it is.

just reached this, 11-8 now at our friends in the Potteries

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/peterborough-v-bristol-city/winner


i got what i could on at betfred at 8/5

£50.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Peterborough United v Bristol City
Match Result
   Bristol City    8/5    
Total stake   £ 50.00
Estimated return   £ 130.00
Full stake   £ 50.00
Full estimated return   £ 130.00

[TightEnd]

Interesting potential cover spot...

Band Aid is on the driff for Xmas no.1 and the X Factor winner is generally around 8-15 now.

Laddies are shortest price about Band Aid (11-8) for Xmas No.1 and have split the X Factor contestants up as follows...

9-4 Fleur, 4 Andrea, 6 Ben, 12 Lauren, 20 Stereo Dicks.

An Andrea double (9-4 and 8-15) only comes to around 4-1 but I still think this is a decent bet (9-4 is tight going by Betty). For me he'd be more likely to have a Xmas No.1 than, say, the Stereo Dicks.

Flick in a pony at 4-1 ta.

what is the current situation with Band Aid please?

why would it be drifting?

ty

[TightEnd]

I don't really mind laying back the £30 or so I have put on X factor on Fleur at 2.16.  Looks short enough to me and the cost is pretty marginal as we put our first bet on Betfair (so we don't get done for 5% + the spread).  2.14/2.16 isn't much of a spread do we might be doing .5%. 

Think Fleur is still the most likely but hope some got that 5/1 Ben as a bit of cover.  As Chompy mentioned the beardy Italian and his jumper is starting to look a bit dull, and we have to go for the big win now. 

Love ya ma and all your mates on the stage dancing like loons.  Almost genius that. 

would you like me to lay Fleur?

the current position makes me feel all warm inside

misc.   X-Factor   Fleur East   34.44   20

i note 11/10 best now

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/x-factor/winning-act

Beardy jumper being in the bottom two and Haenow, Haenow don't dream its over being given a song that made him resemble someone suffering severe constipation means it was quite a material weekend for this bet, no?

[TightEnd]

NBA Review Sunday

Only 5 games to report on.  A lot of our teams/players were in action though.

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/group/3

Portland beat Boston.  Win/win situation for the portland div bet and the raps div bet with boston taking another loss.  Rondo had 8 assists in the game.

Memphis beat the clippers.  Not a good result for the SA spurs div bet or the clippers outright bet.  Paul had 5 assists so falls further behind Rondo in 2nd place in the assists market.

The other two games had no implications to our ante post positions.

I want to recommend another ante post bet if we can get on at 888/unibet/32 red (they all use unibets prices).  Regular season mvp market.  A Davies 6/1 £30 recommended.  This kid has had a smoking start to the season on both ends of the floor.  He is known as a shut down defender and is right at the top of all the defensive catergories (leads the league in blocks/3rd in steals/5th in rebounds) however he is also currently 2nd in scoring at around 26 points per game. 

The main edge here is how badly James is playing.  As a previous winner he will have to have a monster season to get the award again.  Durant is still injured and out for a few more weeks.  Think it will be very hard for him to win it this season missing so much of the regular season.  These were the short priced favs ante post.  I don't think the market has adjusted enough for Davies who is young and will only improve.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/regular-season-mvp

thank you

very happy to throw these across

a weekly summary of the relevant divisions would be good too.


our current bets are a many and plentiful potential bounty

basketball   NBA - Rookie of the Year 2014/15   Nerlens Noel   10/1   40            
basketball   NBA Rookie of the year   wiggins   7.0   20            
basketball   NBA Rookie of the year   parker   3.0   40            
basketball   nba rookie of the year   wiggins   7.0   80            
basketball   nba championship   cavaliers   9/2   50            
basketball   NBA Championship   Cavaliers   7/2   100            £50 e/w 1/2 1,2
basketball    NBA - Atlantic Division 2014/15    Toronto Raptors   5/6   100            
basketball    NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15    Dallas Mavericks   10/1   10            
basketball    NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15    San Antonio Spurs   1.83   60            
basketball   NBA Championship   Chicago Bulls   8/1   40            £20 e/w 1/2 1,2
basketball   NBA Championship   LA Clippers   12/1   40            £20 e/w 1/2 1,2
basketball   NBA Championship   Toronto Raptors   66/1   20   £10 e/w 1/2 1,2
basketball   NBA Rookie of the Year   Jabari Parker   3.5   50            
basketball   nba season most assists   Rajan Rondo   5/2   200   £100 e/w 1/5 1,2,3 (£80 e/w sonour)
basketball   NCAA Basketball   Duke   10/1   5            
basketball   NCAA Basketball   Duke   10/1   5            
basketball   NCAA Basketball   Duke   10   10            
basketball   NBA Northwestern division   Portland Trailblazers   10/11   55            

[Chompy]

Wp Tighty, that's a hella lot of work.

Will leave the X Factor trade entirely up to Doooobs, but we have the double coverage on Cowell for top mentor to add to the Fleur bet. Fleur is as short as her fodds price on the exchanges and I've no idea whether she deserves to be the current price or not.

Got some 6-1 Davies for MVP if yawl wanna take some of it?

"Football/NFL/Racing Enthusiast" has a bill coming from me, so a bit more added on for Davies won't hurt.

[TightEnd]

Got some 6-1 Davies for MVP if yawl wanna take some of it?

clues please. sport? event?

[Nakor]

Just in case anyone hasn't seen it - I believe it broke the internet overnight.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000433435/article/giants-odell-beckham-makes-catch-of-the-year?module=HP11_cp

[arbboy]

NBA Review Sunday

Only 5 games to report on.  A lot of our teams/players were in action though.

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/group/3

Portland beat Boston.  Win/win situation for the portland div bet and the raps div bet with boston taking another loss.  Rondo had 8 assists in the game.

Memphis beat the clippers.  Not a good result for the SA spurs div bet or the clippers outright bet.  Paul had 5 assists so falls further behind Rondo in 2nd place in the assists market.

The other two games had no implications to our ante post positions.

I want to recommend another ante post bet if we can get on at 888/unibet/32 red (they all use unibets prices).  Regular season mvp market.  A Davies 6/1 £30 recommended.  This kid has had a smoking start to the season on both ends of the floor.  He is known as a shut down defender and is right at the top of all the defensive catergories (leads the league in blocks/3rd in steals/5th in rebounds) however he is also currently 2nd in scoring at around 26 points per game.  

The main edge here is how badly James is playing.  As a previous winner he will have to have a monster season to get the award again.  Durant is still injured and out for a few more weeks.  Think it will be very hard for him to win it this season missing so much of the regular season.  These were the short priced favs ante post.  I don't think the market has adjusted enough for Davies who is young and will only improve.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/regular-season-mvp

This Tighty.  I sneaked it into the daily nba report.

[TightEnd]

NBA Review Sunday

Only 5 games to report on.  A lot of our teams/players were in action though.

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/group/3

Portland beat Boston.  Win/win situation for the portland div bet and the raps div bet with boston taking another loss.  Rondo had 8 assists in the game.

Memphis beat the clippers.  Not a good result for the SA spurs div bet or the clippers outright bet.  Paul had 5 assists so falls further behind Rondo in 2nd place in the assists market.

The other two games had no implications to our ante post positions.

I want to recommend another ante post bet if we can get on at 888/unibet/32 red (they all use unibets prices).  Regular season mvp market.  A Davies 6/1 £30 recommended.  This kid has had a smoking start to the season on both ends of the floor.  He is known as a shut down defender and is right at the top of all the defensive catergories (leads the league in blocks/3rd in steals/5th in rebounds) however he is also currently 2nd in scoring at around 26 points per game. 

The main edge here is how badly James is playing.  As a previous winner he will have to have a monster season to get the award again.  Durant is still injured and out for a few more weeks.  Think it will be very hard for him to win it this season missing so much of the regular season.  These were the short priced favs ante post.  I don't think the market has adjusted enough for Davies who is young and will only improve.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/regular-season-mvp

This Tighty.  I sneaked it into the daily nba report.

Yes, ty

tikay doesn't have 888/unibet/32red

so Chompy can you spare £30? or give a figure you can let the thread have

let me know thanks

[Chompy]

£30 booked.

Invoice in post.

[Doobs]

I don't really mind laying back the £30 or so I have put on X factor on Fleur at 2.16.  Looks short enough to me and the cost is pretty marginal as we put our first bet on Betfair (so we don't get done for 5% + the spread).  2.14/2.16 isn't much of a spread do we might be doing .5%. 

Think Fleur is still the most likely but hope some got that 5/1 Ben as a bit of cover.  As Chompy mentioned the beardy Italian and his jumper is starting to look a bit dull, and we have to go for the big win now. 

Love ya ma and all your mates on the stage dancing like loons.  Almost genius that. 

would you like me to lay Fleur?

the current position makes me feel all warm inside

misc.   X-Factor   Fleur East   34.44   20

i note 11/10 best now

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/x-factor/winning-act

Beardy jumper being in the bottom two and Haenow, Haenow don't dream its over being given a song that made him resemble someone suffering severe constipation means it was quite a material weekend for this bet, no?

I don't know how much we have on Cowell, but lay £30+that at 2.14 or 2.16.  Seems pretty short to me now, but as I say we want to go for the big win still.  All I have done myself is make sure I don't lose on betfair and haven't hedged the non betfair bets.

Don't know much about Band Aid, seems some pretty hefty negative comments out there this time.  Not my bet though.

[TightEnd]

We have £50 Smon winning judge 4/1 (Chompy)

this gives us Ben Haenow running for us too

Fleur, Ben and the cast of Oliver are winners for us

Beardy and Lauren losers


for now i have placed the £34.44 Fleur to lay back and its up there at 2.14

[TightEnd]

now matched

Fleur 34.44 at 2.14 liability 39.26

[claypole]

The situation with Band Aid is that it's absolutely friendless and the view is it cannot hold four weeks. The drift occurred the day after we discussed the hedge at 1.54 (general 4/7 at time) - I am guessing based in postive sales.

Sales edged past 350,000, outsold band aid 20 and the issue here is obviously the download market which is huge and I mis-read the impact short term. Guess we still have an out with the Cd release however general view is by time X Factor release on 14th we can't sustain sales to beat Fleur.

A few industry reports saying it could hold today, however probably needs sales to flatten and then hit c450k again Christmas werk to cop. Not confident as bet fair always right ha ha