Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

So't'on are currently 1.72 on betty to win away at Villa tonight.

That seems daftly short to me even tho' Villa are a bit crap so I've dived in with a lay.

Any more for any more?

Only just seen that Ralph, been pokering.

It looked good then, it looks a lot better now.

Good luck.

Cheers Tony.

Whilst we're aftertiming might I be permitted to mention that I'm also on Aghbonlahor for 1stGS @ 12.5.

 

we have a really hard schedule coming up laying saints against the big boys who we play 7 times in next 10 games should show a profit
i suggested something a cpl of weeks ago but was knocked back but some of the elders

I don't know why you want to just lay Saints against the big sides.

Regardless of results, all the game stats show we are a side that are well capable of top 6 and can push all the way for top 4 in a league where the top 6 challengers look poorer than usual.

Not our best night tonight, lacking a bit of creativity in final third but dominated and think the prices pre game were right.

City 6/5, Saints 5/2 for the weekend. Thoughts?

So if you think 4/6 Soton away to villa was the right price tonight that equates to Soton being close to a 1/4 shot at home to villa.  You seriously trying to tell me Soton are 1/4 at home to anyone in the EPL never mind a team that is predicted to finish above the bottom 6 of the EPL on current market prices?

I layed Saints last night on this very basis, but felt like I got away with it.  They played like a "big gun" last night - Villa looked like the away side.  Comms were saying Saints were disappointing midway through second half but it felt results orientated to me.  I thought they controlled the game.

What price would Arsenal be away to Villa do we think?  I feel like Saints are at that level right now. 

[Tonji]

Speed races start this week for the Men in Canada, with Downhill & Super G.

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-sports/alpine-skiing/mens-alpine:-lake-louise-downhill/winner

Without Svindal (out injured) & many racers just returning from injury it's a hugely open race. Training runs will give some clues over the next few days.



Excited   

[TightEnd]

In other work i discover the golf world is already operating the 2015 money list

we had this bet

USPGA Money list   Jordan Speith   12/1   33.2   0   N   -33.2   £16.60 e/w 1/4 1,2,3

and  he finished 11th on the 2014 money list

http://espn.go.com/golf/moneylist/_/year/2014

so it has been taken as a loser

[Nakor]

How did Sam Burgess not make the SPOTY list?

[horseplayer]

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/nov/24/claudio-caniggia-brazil-argentina-newcastle-daniel-cordone?CMP=twt_gu

[TightEnd]

How did Sam Burgess not make the SPOTY list?

part of the aim is, i am pretty sure, include minority sports and winning Olympians. Especially as they got big BBC coverage

until it was mentioned i was not surprised to see Burgess wasn't on the list

[TightEnd]

a quick NFL look ahead

three games on Thursday, thanksgiving

Lions -6.5 vs Bears | OU 47.5

Cowboys -3 vs Eagles | OU 54

49ers -2 vs Seahawks | OU 40

Cowboys-Eagles is a biggie, both 8-3 and playing each other twice in the next three weeks. We are on the Eagles for the conference

As a 3 point line suggests, a very tough game to call

49ers/Seahawks is virtually a play off game. the loser falls three games below the Cardinals with 4 games to play


On sunday is one of the games of the season, Patriots at Packers. We have the Packers for conference and superbowl

the Total opened at 58 at Pinnacle, the highest opener on a total since December 25, 2004 (KC-OAK opened 59, closed 60).

It's early but the Packers (-3) are getting just 16% of spread bets vs. Patriots (info from sportsinsights.com) They haven't received <25% of bets since October 2008.

[TightEnd]

does anyone like Bayern at Man C tonight, odds against?

still a gulf in class Bayern versus rest of group, on this year's evidence

or do we feel 11/10 is too short?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/man-city-v-bayern-munich/winner

[swinebag22]

does anyone like Bayern at Man C tonight, odds against?

still a gulf in class Bayern versus rest of group, on this year's evidence

or do we feel 11/10 is too short?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/man-city-v-bayern-munich/winner

I feel it is a little short but Brodders on BE makes a good point that 12X betting depends on how the 5pm game goes as City could be out before kick off.

I'd fancy City to win at 13/5 if the pressure of qualifying is released by a winner in the CSKA/Roma match.

In fact I reckon city are big at 13/5  at home vs most opponents

[RobS]

I layed Saints last night on this very basis, but felt like I got away with it.  They played like a "big gun" last night - Villa looked like the away side.  Comms were saying Saints were disappointing midway through second half but it felt results orientated to me.  I thought they controlled the game.

What price would Arsenal be away to Villa do we think?  I feel like Saints are at that level right now.  

Villa always look like the away side though, they are dreadful. The most possession they have had at home in the Prem is 45% and that was against Hull. Also Villa were missing 3 of their centre backs and Benteke. And they've got Tom Cleverley.

Arsenal have somehow only won 4 out 12 so that's a difficult comparison to make.

Haven't seen much of Southampton this season (doubt many have) before last night, but can't help feel it's getting to the stage where they are being over-hyped and a reality check is on its way......

[arbboy]

I layed Saints last night on this very basis, but felt like I got away with it.  They played like a "big gun" last night - Villa looked like the away side.  Comms were saying Saints were disappointing midway through second half but it felt results orientated to me.  I thought they controlled the game.

What price would Arsenal be away to Villa do we think?  I feel like Saints are at that level right now.  

Villa always look like the away side though, they are dreadful. The most possession they have had at home in the Prem is 45% and that was against Hull. Also Villa were missing 3 of their centre backs and Benteke. And they've got Tom Cleverley.

Arsenal have somehow only won 4 out 12 so that's a difficult comparison to make.

Haven't seen much of Southampton this season (doubt many have) before last night, but can't help feel it's getting to the stage where they are being over-hyped and a reality check is on its way......

Soton are not playing on Arsenal's level though imo they are just enjoying a relatively easy run of games.

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-domestic/premier-league/mm4.uk.meeting.4719890/premier-league-points-2014-2015

  Sporting index still have arsenal gaining 5.5 more points than Soton over the season even though Soton are currently 9 points ahead of them.  This helps to put some reality on the two sides.  I don't think Arsenal would ever be shorter than 4/6 away at Villa.  They might be 4/6  at shortest but as sporting's points index proves they are still a substantially better side than Soton long term.  Therefore Soton clearly went off too short last night at 4/6.

[DungBeetle]

Yeah - that was my thinking when I made the bet.  But they just seemed superior to Villa when I watched the match.  What was the correct price for them last night?  I remember a game last year when they were away to Norwich and were favs but about 6/5 I think.  That's what I was expecting last night.

[arbboy]

Yeah - that was my thinking when I made the bet.  But they just seemed superior to Villa when I watched the match.  What was the correct price for them last night?  I remember a game last year when they were away to Norwich and were favs but about 6/5 I think.  That's what I was expecting last night.

Obviously injuries/suspensions etc need to be factored into the price last night for a one off game.  I have done my cash laying Soton a couple of times this year already.  I laid them at 11/8 away to West Ham a few months ago on the off after they had been gambled from 15/8 into 11/8 which seemed a crazy price at the time and looking at the league table now i still think it's a crazy price.  Doesn't mean they can't win though.

[TightEnd]

Basketball ante-post division and championship bets

nba championship   cavaliers   9/2   50         
NBA Championship   Cavaliers   7/2   100   

Cavaliers are 3rd in the Eastern-Central, 2.5 games behind the division leader

      
NBA - Atlantic Division 2014/15    Toronto Raptors   5/6   100   

Raptors have the best record in the NBA, 12-2 and lead the Eastern-Atlantic by a whopping 6.5 games

      
NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15    Dallas Mavericks   10/1   10

the Southwest is a very tough division. At 10-5 the Mavs are in 4th! 2.5 games behind Memphis    

      
NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15    San Antonio Spurs   1.83   60   

the Southwest is a very tough division. At 9-4 the Spurs are in 3rd 2.5 games behind Memphis

      
NBA Championship   Chicago Bulls   8/1   40   

Chicago lead the Eastern-Central with a 9-5 record

      
NBA Championship   LA Clippers   12/1   40   

8-5 record, 2.5 games behind the leaders, in 3rd in the Pacific

      
NBA Championship   Toronto Raptors   66/1   20      

Raptors have the best record in the NBA, 12-2 and lead the Eastern-Atlantic by a whopping 6.5 games   


NBA Northwestern division   Portland Trailblazers   10/11   55         

With an 11-3 record Portland are 4.5 games clear at the top of the division


The regular season will end on Wednesday, April 15, 2015.

my understanding is the top 8 in each of the two conferences make the play offs. seed 1 plays seed 8 etc, NBA finals between winners of east and west next June


at this early stage we look to have an exciting book

[Mark_Porter]

I agree that Saints are never 1/4 at home to anyone in the premier league.

Could it have been the ‘home affect’ for Villa is just not there hence the shorter than normal price. Lowest crowd in years at Villa Park, always play negatively etc.

So the amount the away team gives up (0.x of a goal?) by going to Villa Park is lessened and even more so last night with injuries, run of form etc. So comparing the away price to the corresponding home price does not ring true?

Do we really know that much more than the market to say the price was completely wrong?

Interesting discussion.