Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

Gerrard is currently 11/4 to score anytime at home to Sunderland this weekend.
No market formed properly on betfair at the mo.
I'm on phone so may have missed getting the stats correct but I read that he scored his first goal from open play this week in 22 months. Shocking.
People probably still back him to score though, meaning favourable odds to lay??
Sunderland have had 2 penalties against them all season, Liverpool have had 4 penalties given this season at home.
Gerrard may not even play.
What odds would you lay at?

i recall reading that the plan was to rest him for the champions league game next week

beat Basel and go through?

http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2015/clubs/club=7889/index.html

on tuesday night he played far more advanced than i expected. not in the two in front of the back four but the three behind the striker

I'm clueless with betfair most of the time, especially when a market isn't properly formed, it's a positive if he's rested for Basel, so a lay would be good especially if he doesn't start and then comes on as a sub?

[arbboy]

Gerrard is currently 11/4 to score anytime at home to Sunderland this weekend.
No market formed properly on betfair at the mo.
I'm on phone so may have missed getting the stats correct but I read that he scored his first goal from open play this week in 22 months. Shocking.
People probably still back him to score though, meaning favourable odds to lay??
Sunderland have had 2 penalties against them all season, Liverpool have had 4 penalties given this season at home.
Gerrard may not even play.
What odds would you lay at?

i recall reading that the plan was to rest him for the champions league game next week

beat Basel and go through?

http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2015/clubs/club=7889/index.html

on tuesday night he played far more advanced than i expected. not in the two in front of the back four but the three behind the striker

I'm clueless with betfair most of the time, especially when a market isn't properly formed, it's a positive if he's rested for Basel, so a lay would be good especially if he doesn't start and then comes on as a sub?

everyone else will know this as well.  Gl getting anything matched on bf on this at anywhere close to that price unless he is starting.

[Tal]

Shouty red man has a market on Jay Cutler's passing attempts tonight. It's fairly high at 37.5, but I'm wondering whether this might be a reasonable one for an over. Here he is, according to Google images:

Click to see full-size image.

The pros are:
+ Cutler has a very good record against Dallas as a passer
+ The Dallas pass rush isn't stellar
+ The Bears have to go for it tonight to stay in with a slim chance of making the playoffs and against a big scoring team, that's going to mean needing points
+ He's been pretty consistently mid thirties all season, with the recent Tampa game an anomoly, largely because I reckon tikay could get 100 rushing yards against them
+ Dallas might be winning and can run the clock down with their running back extraordinaire, leaving little choice but going airborne
+ Dallas Head Coach Jason Garrett says that the Chicago running back, Matt Forte, is "half their offence", so we can assume there will be a bolstered front seven to deal with the main threat.

Cons:
- That could lead to space in the backfield and longer passes mean fewer are needed
- Forte is the second best runing back in football this year. He is likely to have a good game whatever Dallas does
- Dallas can clock manage, sometimes, and that's going to mean less time for pass plays.

Is 37.5 about right? I'm minded to play the overs.

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

If Cutler is chucking it about, overs on points seems logical, too, right?





Edit: err...I reckon we should do the free Betting Emporium tip this week...

[rfgqqabc]

Lots of pricing inefficiencies about in the Miss World stuff. Anybody got some views, got to be a few bets about. Courtney Thorpe/Koyal Rana/Tatjana Maul/Carrin Tyrrel all have pretty big price differences. Tempted to oppose Lads traders but surely their traders more likely to have priced this up well, they must spend time in the office doing something!

[arbboy]

Lots of pricing inefficiencies about in the Miss World stuff. Anybody got some views, got to be a few bets about. Courtney Thorpe/Koyal Rana/Tatjana Maul/Carrin Tyrrel all have pretty big price differences. Tempted to oppose Lads traders but surely their traders more likely to have priced this up well, they must spend time in the office doing something!

They do!  Making ricks on their normal markets.  No time to make ricks on this.  Just a copy and paste job from other firms surely???

[Doobs]

Lots of pricing inefficiencies about in the Miss World stuff. Anybody got some views, got to be a few bets about. Courtney Thorpe/Koyal Rana/Tatjana Maul/Carrin Tyrrel all have pretty big price differences. Tempted to oppose Lads traders but surely their traders more likely to have priced this up well, they must spend time in the office doing something!

100 runners

Lads 2/1 fav 4/1 2nd fav
b365 11/5 4/1
shy 2/1 6/1

Just looks a bag of shit to me.   Nice pictures tho

[Tal]

I should probably be able to work this out, but save me the trouble, as it's late:

Why is it possible to bet the total number of points scored tonight in the NFL is even at odds against (11/10)? Seems counterintuitive that it would be anything other than the flip of a coin.

What am I missing?

[doubleup]

must be that totals are not random surely ie when you look at a sig sample of past scores there are more odd than even

[Tal]

must be that totals are not random surely ie when you look at a sig sample of past scores there are more odd than even

Well, yes. I suppose there's also a score the bookies have in mind, based on the total points and the spread, but it's still a surprise to me you can get 11/10 on an even total.

I've never given it a moment's thought and then saw that tonight.

Fair enough. As you were.

[arbboy]

the vast majority of scores are 3 and 7 obviously.  Given there will never be zero score in the game (ie no 0-0) therefore its slightly more likely of an odd number of scores in a game than even and therefore an odd number of total points.  I assume this is what it is.

[rfgqqabc]

Lots of pricing inefficiencies about in the Miss World stuff. Anybody got some views, got to be a few bets about. Courtney Thorpe/Koyal Rana/Tatjana Maul/Carrin Tyrrel all have pretty big price differences. Tempted to oppose Lads traders but surely their traders more likely to have priced this up well, they must spend time in the office doing something!

100 runners

Lads 2/1 fav 4/1 2nd fav
b365 11/5 4/1
shy 2/1 6/1

Just looks a bag of shit to me.   Nice pictures tho

Thorpe Lads 16/1 b365 4/1
Maul   Lads 8/1 b365 20/1
Rana Lads 4/1   Shy 12/1
Tyrell Lads 7/1  B365 40/1

Tempted to back any of the ones Lads have shortened, as presumably there has been some £ going on. Hard to say though, could just be £10s flicked in. Is there a chance betfair puts something up?

[Doobs]

must be that totals are not random surely ie when you look at a sig sample of past scores there are more odd than even

Well, yes. I suppose there's also a score the bookies have in mind, based on the total points and the spread, but it's still a surprise to me you can get 11/10 on an even total.

I've never given it a moment's thought and then saw that tonight.

Fair enough. As you were.

They don't have a score in mind, they have a distribution in mind. Unless you know what that distribution looks like you know less than them and not more.   11/10 might be value, but unless we crunch the maths we aren't going to know.  

11/10 means 52% odd which isn't a lot of bias considering we always start odd just off the top of my head.  Am not going to crunch the odds as it feels the max edge is only a couple of percent or so even if they have overestimated the bias a touch.

[Doobs]

Lots of pricing inefficiencies about in the Miss World stuff. Anybody got some views, got to be a few bets about. Courtney Thorpe/Koyal Rana/Tatjana Maul/Carrin Tyrrel all have pretty big price differences. Tempted to oppose Lads traders but surely their traders more likely to have priced this up well, they must spend time in the office doing something!

100 runners

Lads 2/1 fav 4/1 2nd fav
b365 11/5 4/1
shy 2/1 6/1

Just looks a bag of shit to me.   Nice pictures tho

Thorpe Lads 16/1 b365 4/1
Maul   Lads 8/1 b365 20/1
Rana Lads 4/1   Shy 12/1
Tyrell Lads 7/1  B365 40/1

Tempted to back any of the ones Lads have shortened, as presumably there has been some £ going on. Hard to say though, could just be £10s flicked in. Is there a chance betfair puts something up?

Just feels messy to me.  Shortening someone to 4/1 when they have a 2/1 favorite they haven't lengthened doesn't seem like a sharp move to me. 

[doubleup]

Looks like this all got sorted out in 2006

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=423003

Past 8 years: 1494-1121, 57.1% (odd)
Past 3 years: 556-444, 55.6%

So far this year: 113-81, 58.2%