Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/nfc-east/winner

Decent commission free arb (4/11 10/3) still exists on Hills insistence on 'giving away' their ante post profits from laying the Cowboys to win this division.  Sportingindex make the market 1/4 4/1 using their mid points of the divisional index below.

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/american-football/nfl-long-term/mm4.uk.meeting.4738659/nfc-divisional-indices

I know we are full of Eagles ante post but we really are leaving ev on the floor not backing this 4/11.  It was 4/9 last Friday after they both played on Thanksgiving when i suggested backing it for the same reasons and nothing has changed since then as neither have played again.   The 'sharp' firms are happy to lay the arb on the Cowboys which tells you where the value is.

noted thanks

its a bit like the arizona position

the eagles play seattle this week, and seattle look back towards their best

next week its eagles v cowboys again

could well know the division winner in a fortnight. eagles a long way towards winning it tonight if the cowboys lose at the bears which is eminently possible

Even if we don't want to bet the 4/11 just arb it and open an account with spreadex and take their 10/3 for a freeroll on Eagles (assume fred hasn't got one).  The free bet is a great offer which is easily turned into £100 in cash effectively after you have placed 5 bets by backing a big price close to the bf price on a golfer etc.  Then you get the price doubled so having £100 at 25/1 on a golfer for the free bet offer they make it £100 at 50/1.  Then lay £200 at 25/1 on betfair and 96% of the time you turn the free bet offer into £100 in cash with no risk.  Simples.

got that, tikay? :-)

over to you

[Tonji]

Long time since i can remember a jolly this short for Miss World.  Wonder what makes her a 2/1 shot for this donkfest?

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/miss-world/pageant-winner

http://www.missworld.com/Contestants/SouthAfrica/

Anyone got any views?

I seem to recall tikay having given a previous year's competition considerable attention. No doubt he can add to Fred's burgeoning "misc" portfolio.

Some inside info on Miss China I think.

Amazing the number of young ladies tikay has encountered down the allotment!

[BigAdz]

Yup, Izzet Muzzy an AW roffler in the early to mid noughties.

I thought of Leicester when I read the name and turns out that's where he won his last race. Funny how these things stick in the back of your mind.

Are we interested in the 9-1 Fleur to get the boot this week?

Don't think any of us really know who's doing what in the voting this series and aggression is best in these spots. Wouldn't be surprised to see Fleur v Andrea in the bottom two for example.

She's 10-11 with bwin to be in the bottom two.

I'd give you evens she is bottom 2 for as much as you like. Whilst it is clearly possible she is in the bottom 2 that is clearly a lolprice.   

Fwiw last weeks bottom 2 were exactly the 2 you'd expect and I don't think there have been many shocks at all this series. Last week's ditching of Stereo Kicks over Lauren was the only one I can think of.  I can't think why the Andrea/Lauren bottom 2 combo shouldn't be odds on for bottom 2 this week. 

Not saying 9/1 is bad, just the bwin price you are comparing to definitely is. I think Cowell has been much more positive on her than the stereo kicks, so you have that to get over too.  Should have laid more at evens obv. 

Ladbrokes are 6/4 she is bottom 2.  Bwin's prices as usual make no sense and don't correlate at all.  They are ducking a bottom 2 finish yet are top price she leaves.  lol traders going to lol trade!

Pretty sure Mr C had a view last night on those people that mock the trader.

Certainly the trader I know at one of those we use, makes far, far more using the benefits of his position, regardless of the somewhat basic salary he earns.

Not all as foolish as you might think Arb!

[arbboy]

Yup, Izzet Muzzy an AW roffler in the early to mid noughties.

I thought of Leicester when I read the name and turns out that's where he won his last race. Funny how these things stick in the back of your mind.

Are we interested in the 9-1 Fleur to get the boot this week?

Don't think any of us really know who's doing what in the voting this series and aggression is best in these spots. Wouldn't be surprised to see Fleur v Andrea in the bottom two for example.

She's 10-11 with bwin to be in the bottom two.

I'd give you evens she is bottom 2 for as much as you like. Whilst it is clearly possible she is in the bottom 2 that is clearly a lolprice.  

Fwiw last weeks bottom 2 were exactly the 2 you'd expect and I don't think there have been many shocks at all this series. Last week's ditching of Stereo Kicks over Lauren was the only one I can think of.  I can't think why the Andrea/Lauren bottom 2 combo shouldn't be odds on for bottom 2 this week.  

Not saying 9/1 is bad, just the bwin price you are comparing to definitely is. I think Cowell has been much more positive on her than the stereo kicks, so you have that to get over too.  Should have laid more at evens obv.  

Ladbrokes are 6/4 she is bottom 2.  Bwin's prices as usual make no sense and don't correlate at all.  They are ducking a bottom 2 finish yet are top price she leaves.  lol traders going to lol trade!

Pretty sure Mr C had a view last night on those people that mock the trader.

Certainly the trader I know at one of those we use, makes far, far more using the benefits of his position, regardless of the somewhat basic salary he earns.

Not all as foolish as you might think Arb!

Not all just most. Don't forget i have worked with hundreds of them myself first hand.  I do sometimes wonder how often they put up prices so their mates can back them though.

[tikay]

Long time since i can remember a jolly this short for Miss World.  Wonder what makes her a 2/1 shot for this donkfest?

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/miss-world/pageant-winner

http://www.missworld.com/Contestants/SouthAfrica/

Anyone got any views?

I seem to recall tikay having given a previous year's competition considerable attention. No doubt he can add to Fred's burgeoning "misc" portfolio.

Some inside info on Miss China I think.

Amazing the number of young ladies tikay has encountered down the allotment!

No no, I cannot take any credit for that Miss World coup, think it was either Miss China or Miss Philippines?

Bobby1 kindly shared that with me, & all the background info, he has a very deep knowledge of how the Miss World betting market is developed, & who will or wont be in serious contention, via several contacts of his, & he was the one who alerted me.

Maybe he gets that stuff from AsianBabes.com, which I understand is top of his bookmarked sites for reasons which are not entirely transparent.

Over to Bobby1 then.

Personally, I deffo would not bet on that Market without his input, some of the background stuff he knows blew me away as to how things will be marked. 

Pretty sure Chompy had a line on the Market, too, he's the Fenland ledge for Misc & reality tripe. 

[Chompy]

Miss World soooo bent these days.

Obv I knew about Laddies going 6-4 Fleur being in the bottom two, was just using the lolbwin price as a titbit.

According to Dermo the bottom two weren't far clear of the next one up in last weekend's vote. It would easy to assume the next one was Andrea but I wouldn't be amazed if it was Fleur.

Think there's some mileage at 9-1.

[Chompy]

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I like it.

Rec £10 on Fleur to get the boot, 9-1 sportingbet, Sid or bwin

[Nico29]

I really like fleur to go at 9's. Think its an ok hedge on any outright bets on her too. Gen believe shes a flip or worse v any1 bar lauren. Its unders on bf for a chunk too. Dont like her to be bottom 2 at 2.5 hugely but think to go offers dece value at 9's. Wont last.

[arbboy]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2860600/Lauren-Platt-supported-X-Factor-pals-Fleur-Andreas-hits-red-carpet-splitting-boyfriend-Liam-Baker-wake-Niall-Horan-rumours.html

Will this have any impact on the whole coup being a non watcher?  Or was it well known anyway and old news?  Lauren more likely to win if she starts dating a 1D himbo?  Perfect pr for Cowell surely to engineer this situation?

[bobby1]

Long time since i can remember a jolly this short for Miss World.  Wonder what makes her a 2/1 shot for this donkfest?

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/miss-world/pageant-winner

http://www.missworld.com/Contestants/SouthAfrica/

Anyone got any views?

I seem to recall tikay having given a previous year's competition considerable attention. No doubt he can add to Fred's burgeoning "misc" portfolio.

Some inside info on Miss China I think.

Amazing the number of young ladies tikay has encountered down the allotment!

No no, I cannot take any credit for that Miss World coup, think it was either Miss China or Miss Philippines?

Bobby1 kindly shared that with me, & all the background info, he has a very deep knowledge of how the Miss World betting market is developed, & who will or wont be in serious contention, via several contacts of his, & he was the one who alerted me.

Maybe he gets that stuff from AsianBabes.com, which I understand is top of his bookmarked sites for reasons which are not entirely transparent.

Over to Bobby1 then.

Personally, I deffo would not bet on that Market without his input, some of the background stuff he knows blew me away as to how things will be marked. 

Pretty sure Chompy had a line on the Market, too, he's the Fenland ledge for Misc & reality tripe. 

I would like to make it sound super shrewd but I just thought her boobs were too nice to be 50/1.

[Marky147]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2860600/Lauren-Platt-supported-X-Factor-pals-Fleur-Andreas-hits-red-carpet-splitting-boyfriend-Liam-Baker-wake-Niall-Horan-rumours.html

Will this have any impact on the whole coup being a non watcher?  Or was it well known anyway and old news?  Lauren more likely to get death threats win if she starts dating a 1D himbo?  Perfect pr for Cowell surely to engineer this situation?

[Tal]

Long time since i can remember a jolly this short for Miss World.  Wonder what makes her a 2/1 shot for this donkfest?

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/miss-world/pageant-winner

http://www.missworld.com/Contestants/SouthAfrica/

Anyone got any views?

I seem to recall tikay having given a previous year's competition considerable attention. No doubt he can add to Fred's burgeoning "misc" portfolio.

Some inside info on Miss China I think.

Amazing the number of young ladies tikay has encountered down the allotment!

No no, I cannot take any credit for that Miss World coup, think it was either Miss China or Miss Philippines?

Bobby1 kindly shared that with me, & all the background info, he has a very deep knowledge of how the Miss World betting market is developed, & who will or wont be in serious contention, via several contacts of his, & he was the one who alerted me.

Maybe he gets that stuff from AsianBabes.com, which I understand is top of his bookmarked sites for reasons which are not entirely transparent.

Over to Bobby1 then.

Personally, I deffo would not bet on that Market without his input, some of the background stuff he knows blew me away as to how things will be marked. 

Pretty sure Chompy had a line on the Market, too, he's the Fenland ledge for Misc & reality tripe. 

I would like to make it sound super shrewd but I just thought her boobs were too nice to be 50/1.

Is it like the Lovely Girls competition from Father Ted?

Click to see full-size image.

[exstream]

Gerrard is currently 11/4 to score anytime at home to Sunderland this weekend.
No market formed properly on betfair at the mo.
I'm on phone so may have missed getting the stats correct but I read that he scored his first goal from open play this week in 22 months. Shocking.
People probably still back him to score though, meaning favourable odds to lay??
Sunderland have had 2 penalties against them all season, Liverpool have had 4 penalties given this season at home.
Gerrard may not even play.
What odds would you lay at?

[TightEnd]

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I like it.

Rec £10 on Fleur to get the boot, 9-1 sportingbet, Sid or bwin

    Bet Reference: 677948132
    Single
           X Factor - Next Elimination
            Fleur East 9/1   
        Next Elimination Betting
    Total Stake: (10.00 x 1) 10.00
    Possible Payout (inc. stake) 100.00

[TightEnd]

Gerrard is currently 11/4 to score anytime at home to Sunderland this weekend.
No market formed properly on betfair at the mo.
I'm on phone so may have missed getting the stats correct but I read that he scored his first goal from open play this week in 22 months. Shocking.
People probably still back him to score though, meaning favourable odds to lay??
Sunderland have had 2 penalties against them all season, Liverpool have had 4 penalties given this season at home.
Gerrard may not even play.
What odds would you lay at?

i recall reading that the plan was to rest him for the champions league game next week

beat Basel and go through?

http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2015/clubs/club=7889/index.html

on tuesday night he played far more advanced than i expected. not in the two in front of the back four but the three behind the striker