Tips for Tikay

[aaron1867]

My reasoning behind the Rooney bet are:

1) Will Hodgson take him off is England are losing or drawing?
2) come off if winning 1-0?

He will keep Rooney on if those outcomes are happening, which are not out of question.

3) wellbeck been subbed before, then on bench, can only see him coming off before Rooney.
4) Rooney is much fitter
5) more experience.

View of 11/8 bet is that he will only come off if England are very comfortable, which not sure we will be!

[hector62]

When in doubt I like to go with what my eyes have seen. They have seen that England are average/poor but a little better than Ukraine. Our defence is also better than our attack. We do not need to win to go through and we also love the defending/ siege mentality. I have backed under 2 1/2 goals but with my tip last night so wide of the mark I will let others have a go tonight. But expect 2 large buses parked at either end of the pitch ready to be wheeled on by whoever scores first.

[JaffaCake]

shay given has finally been exposed at this tournament as a good shot stopper who has no command of his box whatsoever and appears to be more and more stuck to his goaline as time advances.

Only to those who haven't watched him play. He's never ever come for crosses, played exactly like this his whole career. Or, put another way as Newcastle fans used to say, if he was three or four inches taller he'd be the best keeper in the world

[david3103]

Rooney would have to score 36% of Englands goals to be value at 11/8 to score first.  Almost no player scores that many of a teams goals.  Van Persie managed it this year as did Ronaldo and Messi of course but that gives you an idea of just how dominant a goalscorer you need to be to be value at that kind of price in a game like this.  I am pretty certain Rooney isn't.  As a general rule i would say if you have backed England more than once in the past ten years you are backing them too much.  As for todays game i think the Ukraine are almost certainly value.  They have to win, they are at home and you have a betting market which is in love with England because it is dominated by the Asian market and the Asians see the EPL every week and most of the Ukrainians never.  As an odds compiler I knew with certainty I would get money on England so i would price them accordingly ie I would think what is the correct price and then i would take off as much as I thought I could possibly get away with.

11/8 Rooney to score at anytime
11/2 available for Rooney 1st goalscorer

Not sure I understand your point David?

I obviously didn't understand the maths in yours  

[horseplayer]

shay given has finally been exposed at this tournament as a good shot stopper who has no command of his box whatsoever and appears to be more and more stuck to his goaline as time advances.

Only to those who haven't watched him play. He's never ever come for crosses, played exactly like this his whole career. Or, put another way as Newcastle fans used to say, if he was three or four inches taller he'd be the best keeper in the world

thats exactly why i never thought he was any good (compared to some obviously he was good) he also has a history of playing for sides that concede a hell of a lot of goals something generally keepers have a hand in

[redarmi]

I obviously didn't understand the maths in yours  

I would explain it but it is a bit overly complicated to write here but basically it involves estimating how likely each team is to score x amount of goals in the game using poisson distribution and then using binomial distribution to assess how likely that player is to get them.  Basically if you assume the game prices are correct as we stand for the win markets and total goals markets then for Rooney to be a 2.32 (just under 11/8) chance to score at anytime then he would have to score 36% of Englands goals and that assumes he plays 90 minutes.  Generally as a rule about 50% of goals are scored by recognised strikers 30-35% by midfielders and 15-20% by defenders.  Obv this changes depending on tactics etc though.

[horseplayer]

bet suggestion for tommorow

queen mary 5.00 ascot

goes without saying anything could happen here however i very much doubt JILLNEXTDOOR will be 20-1 (general) at race time

was beaten a head by winner of the windsor castle today at ayr which now looks a lot better than it did at the time

suggest £15 win or something similar

[MereNovice]

bet suggestion for tommorow

queen mary 5.00 ascot

goes without saying anything could happen here however i very much doubt JILLNEXTDOOR will be 20-1 (general) at race time

was beaten a head by winner of the windsor castle today at ayr which now looks a lot better than it did at the time

suggest £15 win or something similar

Thanks.
As I know nothing about horse racing, I am going to wait for at least one other person to recommend/confirm this before betting.
Your record for finding value is most impressive.

[Horneris]

bet suggestion for tommorow

queen mary 5.00 ascot

goes without saying anything could happen here however i very much doubt JILLNEXTDOOR will be 20-1 (general) at race time

was beaten a head by winner of the windsor castle today at ayr which now looks a lot better than it did at the time

suggest £15 win or something similar

Thanks.
As I know nothing about horse racing, I am going to wait for at least one other person to recommend/confirm this before betting.
Your record for finding value is most impressive.

Into 14s now, you snooze you lose.

[MereNovice]

Thanks for all the comments about the England football game.
I may have missed something but nothing seems to stand out as a bet.

The < 2.5 goals seems the most logical to me but has no support on here after the initial post.
It's available at 13/15 on bwin.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/england-v-ukraine/over-under-2.5

As it stands, I'm not placing any bets.
We already have Carroll to follow (if he plays any part) and Benzema for France.

[horseplayer]

bet suggestion for tommorow

queen mary 5.00 ascot

goes without saying anything could happen here however i very much doubt JILLNEXTDOOR will be 20-1 (general) at race time

was beaten a head by winner of the windsor castle today at ayr which now looks a lot better than it did at the time

suggest £15 win or something similar

Thanks.
As I know nothing about horse racing, I am going to wait for at least one other person to recommend/confirm this before betting.
Your record for finding value is most impressive.

Into 14s now, you snooze you lose.

that is going looks like being a general 10-1 shot overnight

[tikay]

Thanks for all the comments about the England football game.
I may have missed something but nothing seems to stand out as a bet.

The < 2.5 goals seems the most logical to me but has no support on here after the initial post.
It's available at 13/15 on bwin.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/england-v-ukraine/over-under-2.5

As it stands, I'm not placing any bets.
We already have Carroll to follow (if he plays any part) and Benzema for France.

I'm pleased you decided that Vince.

Seems to me there is no CLEAR, STANDOUT, VALUE.

So, we may miss a winner or two, too bad.

It is that extra special bit of value, sometimes quirky, sometimes a pricing rick or anomoly, that we need.

And if we can't find it, we should keep our powder dry, save it for a better spot.

The "header" bet was a perfect example last week. The parameters changed, but one bookie missed it. We got on, we had value. In fact, it won, but that's not the point - we found VALUE.

I think you have judged this perfectly, Vince, thank you.

Our record in Euro12 has not been good, especially on matches. Maybe the value is not there. We are in no rush, we have plenty of time, & other sports, we should not push it. All imo of course. 

[ACE2M]

Antepost dogs - The Gymcrack

whittle murtagh @ 25/1 with betfred

10 or 20 e/w

did we back this? 3/1 2nd fav now in the final

[MereNovice]

Antepost dogs - The Gymcrack

whittle murtagh @ 25/1 with betfred

10 or 20 e/w

did we back this? 3/1 2nd fav now in the final

erm, no - sorry.
Excellent tip.

[RickBFA]

Just checked in running prices on England game at half time.

England to win 6/4, Ukraine 16/5 to win.

I might be naive or stupid but how can this be priced correctly?

Ukraine look much more of a threat to me.