Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I cannot watch Royal Ascot, so if Mere or someone could let me know on thread how my selections get on (how far they won by, how easily, "hard-held" etc) I'd be most grateful.

[redarmi]

what a horse

just what a horse

I was just thinking if Frankel didn't exist we would be saying Excelebration is one of the best horses for years and yet it gets hammered every time by Frankel.  If I had a lot of money I would try and buy Excelebration to stand at stud.  Could be great value.

[Graham C]

I'd have thought Rooney is nailed on to be subbed at some point if we're winning with 10/20 mins to go.

Rooney/England is 11/2 on Betfair fwiw

One concurs with enthusiasm & gusto.

Ladbrokes are 7/1 Rooney gets subbed.

It's a pretty good bet IMO. Better than 11/2 Rooney/England.

Sandy

Is that not to be subbed before any of the other options?  Quite like him to score or get an assist before being subbed.

[TightEnd]

I'd have thought Rooney is nailed on to be subbed at some point if we're winning with 10/20 mins to go.

Rooney/England is 11/2 on Betfair fwiw

One concurs with enthusiasm & gusto.

Ladbrokes are 7/1 Rooney gets subbed.

It's a pretty good bet IMO. Better than 11/2 Rooney/England.

Sandy

Agree with this

He hasn't had a competitive game for several weeks, played bits and peices of the warm ups and that's it

If we are winning, take him off and protect him for the QF

If he's booked, likewise

If we are hanging on to a point, get fresh legs on

Only scenario he plays 90 is if we're chasing the game with 30 to go, isn't it?

[Graham C]

If he's been booked, the bets lost

[TightEnd]

If he's been booked, the bets lost

so the bet is what exactly?

the 7-1 is he is off before he scores or gets booked or plays the whole match?

[tikay]

what a horse

just what a horse

I was just thinking if Frankel didn't exist we would be saying Excelebration is one of the best horses for years and yet it gets hammered every time by Frankel.  If I had a lot of money I would try and buy Excelebration to stand at stud.  Could be great value.

Shades - if anyone here is old enough (Karabiner will remember) - of "My Swallow" who was unfortunate enough to be of the same generation as Mill Reef, but for whom, My Swallow would have been a world-beater.  And Mill Reef, in their only meeting that I can recall, got beaten by the even greater Brigadier Gerard, owned & bred by John Hislop.

[MereNovice]

I cannot watch Royal Ascot, so if Mere or someone could let me know on thread how my selections get on (how far they won by, how easily, "hard-held" etc) I'd be most grateful.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdEZYWF9UUmUtVzcwRE5BOTEzeFVRenc#gid=1

Your two entries are tucked in nicely behind the guy at the back of the stand.

[Graham C]

If he's been booked, the bets lost

so the bet is what exactly?

the 7-1 is he is off before he scores or gets booked or plays the whole match?

The 7/1 is what Rooney will do first, bet subbed is 7/1
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/Ukraine-v-England-e215556454-m223763596

Score a goal    11/4
Provide an assist    5/1
Receive a yellow card    4/1
Be sent off    50/1
Be subbed    7/1
Play the full match    11/8

I assume its the first thing on that list to happen.

[henrik777]

If he's been booked, the bets lost

so the bet is what exactly?

the 7-1 is he is off before he scores or gets booked or plays the whole match?

The 7/1 is what Rooney will do first, bet subbed is 7/1
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/Ukraine-v-England-e215556454-m223763596

Score a goal    11/4
Provide an assist    5/1
Receive a yellow card    4/1
Be sent off    50/1
Be subbed    7/1
Play the full match    11/8

I assume its the first thing on that list to happen.

Still a decent bet.

Sandy

[Graham C]

Perhaps, but it's a long sweat wanting him to do nothing.  Can't see him being subbed before 75 mins or so.

[david3103]

Rooney would have to score 36% of Englands goals to be value at 11/8 to score first.  Almost no player scores that many of a teams goals.  Van Persie managed it this year as did Ronaldo and Messi of course but that gives you an idea of just how dominant a goalscorer you need to be to be value at that kind of price in a game like this.  I am pretty certain Rooney isn't.  As a general rule i would say if you have backed England more than once in the past ten years you are backing them too much.  As for todays game i think the Ukraine are almost certainly value.  They have to win, they are at home and you have a betting market which is in love with England because it is dominated by the Asian market and the Asians see the EPL every week and most of the Ukrainians never.  As an odds compiler I knew with certainty I would get money on England so i would price them accordingly ie I would think what is the correct price and then i would take off as much as I thought I could possibly get away with.

11/8 Rooney to score at anytime
11/2 available for Rooney 1st goalscorer

[redarmi]

Rooney would have to score 36% of Englands goals to be value at 11/8 to score first.  Almost no player scores that many of a teams goals.  Van Persie managed it this year as did Ronaldo and Messi of course but that gives you an idea of just how dominant a goalscorer you need to be to be value at that kind of price in a game like this.  I am pretty certain Rooney isn't.  As a general rule i would say if you have backed England more than once in the past ten years you are backing them too much.  As for todays game i think the Ukraine are almost certainly value.  They have to win, they are at home and you have a betting market which is in love with England because it is dominated by the Asian market and the Asians see the EPL every week and most of the Ukrainians never.  As an odds compiler I knew with certainty I would get money on England so i would price them accordingly ie I would think what is the correct price and then i would take off as much as I thought I could possibly get away with.

11/8 Rooney to score at anytime
11/2 available for Rooney 1st goalscorer

Not sure I understand your point David?

[Dubai]

He thinks u meant 11-8 first goalscorer cos u made typo in first sentence. When u obviously meant 36% of goals to be value at 11/8 anytime

[redarmi]

Oh yeah i did mean anytime.