Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Auto-bet posters?  Apologies,never heard this term but at a guess, betting on the next race/sports market available?

thread jargon

elders = posters who have been around from the start, often they have shared a lot of knowledge to try and educate us. sometimes pro-punters, sometimes not

auto-bet posters...people who over a long track record and (as close to significant samples as we have) would automatically have their bets placed on here.....reasoning preferable!

[Larry David]

Very strict in betting on horses, so if I put up a horse I won't give reasoning 95% of the time as It will be very good info passed on( not from Fred who works in the butchers,who is a neighbour of David Pipe'. That is what I meant by not giving reasoning for a bet, if I thought a horse had dropped down the handicap and aimed at a race that would be the reasoning I give.

[Larry David]

Horrible atmosphere at the bridge, brave man taking evens Chelsea, this smells of an away win.

[The Camel]

Just a word of warning these F1 spread markets are volatile things.  I did a few modest trades around £8 a point on average (bought Ferrari, sold Williams, bought Lotus, bought McLaren).  On the face of it the result of the first race was a disaster - I choked on my coffee when both Lotae were out on the first lap and the dire pace of the McLaren.  However, due the spreads reflecting more expectation rather than garnered points I was pleasantly surprised to see myself up £300 when the spreads updated.   Just trying to warn us off going bonkers on the McLaren sell.  One weekend of promise and it could go up 100 points.  If you do it I'd recommend you don't go over £5 a point or it could dwarf the normal size stakes for Fred.

I learn something every day. The plural of Lotus is lotae is it?

Anyway, this is a very good post.

Spread betting compilers are almost always a great deal smarter than their fixed odds counterparts.

A bit like comparing Trigg to Tikay in no limit holdem skillz.

While I have no doubt Peter knows his stuff, the Sporting Index complier is no idiot and I doubt the quote is far wrong. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised if it was priced up to lure in sellers.

Beware.

[Peter-27]

Kvyat -£15....Retired (0) on the classification and counts as a loser

Incorrect, Kvyat is listed as a DNS on the classification. According to Bwin rules, this bet should be void. I've already told customer support, although they'll probably just update it for me and not everyone? Sneaky ..

Guys, take a look at this:

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/motor-racing/formula-1/mm4.uk.meeting.5057058/formula-1-2015-constructors-season-points

You can still sell McLaren at 130 points?

Just to clarify in my own mind, if I sold at £1 - and McLaren only scored 10 points all season, my profit would be £120?

Pretty sure your understanding is correct Peter.... Out of interest, to my untrained eye, the line has moved seemingly significantly since  last week (Joe's bet was a sell @ 153).... Do you think 130 is still value or are they more in line now?

I can't see McLaren getting more than 50 points absolute maximum this season. Wouldn't be surprised if they score under 10 to be honest.

This is not an over-reaction to this weekend. They will develop their car, but it's their powertrain that is limiting their performance relative to others. Powertrain development is massively restricted under regulation. Put it this way, the gap between the Ferrari and Mercedes engines last season was closer than McLaren to Renault now .. Mercedes still had a massive gap at the end of the season, likewise Renault will have a massive gap this season.

It's a long season.  Wasn't the Honda engine running at only 55 percent today to stop it going kaput?

It was at a lower percentage, but not 55%. Even so, five seconds is a big gap!!

Guys, take a look at this:

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/motor-racing/formula-1/mm4.uk.meeting.5057058/formula-1-2015-constructors-season-points

You can still sell McLaren at 130 points?

Just to clarify in my own mind, if I sold at £1 - and McLaren only scored 10 points all season, my profit would be £120?

Pretty sure your understanding is correct Peter.... Out of interest, to my untrained eye, the line has moved seemingly significantly since  last week (Joe's bet was a sell @ 153).... Do you think 130 is still value or are they more in line now?

I can't see McLaren getting more than 50 points absolute maximum this season. Wouldn't be surprised if they score under 10 to be honest.

This is not an over-reaction to this weekend. They will develop their car, but it's their powertrain that is limiting their performance relative to others. Powertrain development is massively restricted under regulation. Put it this way, the gap between the Ferrari and Mercedes engines last season was closer than McLaren to Renault now .. Mercedes still had a massive gap at the end of the season, likewise Renault will have a massive gap this season.

It's a long season.  Wasn't the Honda engine running at only 55 percent today to stop it going kaput?

Not sure about that, but if so, it never stopped one of them going kaput on the way to the starting grid this morning.

I think they are only allowed 4 per season, too. Not sure what happens if they break all 4?

Grid penalties!

[Peter-27]

I'm not sure about the McLaren bet, but that's only because I've never done spread betting and it is high risk.

This IS a good spot and will be profitable.

[simonnatur]

Perverse I know, but wanted to suggest a couple of horses at Southwell, driven by the stats below from this site https://www.flatstats.co.uk/archie-stats.php#
Of the two I prefer Play Nicely who also comes out favourably based on speed ratings, suggest £10 11/2 and £15 11/4 respectively.

Race      Horse                     BF Win Rt   Category       Value   Name   Wins   Runs   Win%    A/E     ROI%   Exp   Archie
02:30   Kung Hei Fat Choy   6.6      70     Class Change   Up   J G Given   37   226   16.40%   1.34   49%          27.6   3.6
03:05   Play Nicely              3.7        82     Class Change   Up   J G Given   37   226   16.40%   1.34   49%          27.6   3.6

I along with a lot of people like Nichols Canyon in the first at Cheltenham 9/2 seems decent and even better if can combine with an offer such as WH mobile or any better enhancement that comes along.

when it is quieter you can explain what the stats above mean!

 

The link above explains the stats better than I can and is worth a look. In essence it is looking to find a set of circumstances in which horses are either value and underbet or conversely poor value and overbet depending on whether you use the website to scan for horses to back or lay.
It's important to try and gauge whether the sample size is sufficient for the results to be reliable and ideally that there is a plausible driver for the results shown.

As an example,  the site also flags up Richard Hannon's runners in the Spring as a potentially profitable system bet. You could hypothesize that the result is caused by the trainers flat horses being further forward compared to their peers when they run early in the season and that this is imperfectly reflected in the betting market.

In practical terms it can be used to trawl vast amounts of data to generate bet ideas that you can then further evaluate.

[horseplayer]

Perverse I know, but wanted to suggest a couple of horses at Southwell, driven by the stats below from this site https://www.flatstats.co.uk/archie-stats.php#
Of the two I prefer Play Nicely who also comes out favourably based on speed ratings, suggest £10 11/2 and £15 11/4 respectively.

Race      Horse                     BF Win Rt   Category       Value   Name   Wins   Runs   Win%    A/E     ROI%   Exp   Archie
02:30   Kung Hei Fat Choy   6.6      70     Class Change   Up   J G Given   37   226   16.40%   1.34   49%          27.6   3.6
03:05   Play Nicely              3.7        82     Class Change   Up   J G Given   37   226   16.40%   1.34   49%          27.6   3.6

I along with a lot of people like Nichols Canyon in the first at Cheltenham 9/2 seems decent and even better if can combine with an offer such as WH mobile or any better enhancement that comes along.

when it is quieter you can explain what the stats above mean!

 

The link above explains the stats better than I can and is worth a look. In essence it is looking to find a set of circumstances in which horses are either value and underbet or conversely poor value and overbet depending on whether you use the website to scan for horses to back or lay.
It's important to try and gauge whether the sample size is sufficient for the results to be reliable and ideally that there is a plausible driver for the results shown.

As an example,  the site also flags up Richard Hannon's runners in the Spring as a potentially profitable system bet. You could hypothesize that the result is caused by the trainers flat horses being further forward compared to their peers when they run early in the season and that this is imperfectly reflected in the betting market.

In practical terms it can be used to trawl vast amounts of data to generate bet ideas that you can then further evaluate.

I used to do some work for Phil for that site.

Very good site with lots of free content without having to pay a penny.

What I would say is things like sire stats at Southwell are now much more widely known and factored in than they were five year's.

Like any stats some are good some are questionable and most have smallish sample sizes. But well worth a read as always pick something up there.

[tikay]

Just a word of warning these F1 spread markets are volatile things.  I did a few modest trades around £8 a point on average (bought Ferrari, sold Williams, bought Lotus, bought McLaren).  On the face of it the result of the first race was a disaster - I choked on my coffee when both Lotae were out on the first lap and the dire pace of the McLaren.  However, due the spreads reflecting more expectation rather than garnered points I was pleasantly surprised to see myself up £300 when the spreads updated.   Just trying to warn us off going bonkers on the McLaren sell.  One weekend of promise and it could go up 100 points.  If you do it I'd recommend you don't go over £5 a point or it could dwarf the normal size stakes for Fred.

I learn something every day. The plural of Lotus is lotae is it?

Anyway, this is a very good post.

Spread betting compilers are almost always a great deal smarter than their fixed odds counterparts.

A bit like comparing Trigg to Tikay in no limit holdem skillz.

While I have no doubt Peter knows his stuff, the Sporting Index complier is no idiot and I doubt the quote is far wrong. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised if it was priced up to lure in sellers.

Beware.

Exactly what are you suggesting, Mr H?

Think the bookies would price it up as a pick 'em.

[TightEnd]

bwin have cancelled two of the bets

    3/12/2015 10:58 AM    Single bet    

    canceled GP Australia - Race specials (How many McLaren cars will be classified in the final results?)
    No car
    CANCELLED


    canceled GP Australia - Race (Top 3 bet)
    Daniil Kvyat (RUS/Red Bull)
    CANCELLED

   5.00    17.00    5.00    


and this one is in as a loser

   20.00    3.65    20.00    
   3/12/2015 10:57 AM    Single bet    

    lost GP Australia - Race (Top 6 bet)
    Daniil Kvyat (RUS/Red Bull)
    Lewis Hamilton (GBR/Mercedes), Nico Rosberg (GER/Mercedes), Sebastian Vettel (GER/Ferrari), Daniel Ricciardo (AUS/Red Bull), Felipe Massa (BRA/Williams), Luiz Felipe Nasr (BRA/Sauber)

   10.00    3.00    -    
   3/12/2015 10:57 AM    Single bet    

i will check the statement again in the morning, but i have changed the spreadsheet to reflect the two cancellations above

[The Camel]

Just a word of warning these F1 spread markets are volatile things.  I did a few modest trades around £8 a point on average (bought Ferrari, sold Williams, bought Lotus, bought McLaren).  On the face of it the result of the first race was a disaster - I choked on my coffee when both Lotae were out on the first lap and the dire pace of the McLaren.  However, due the spreads reflecting more expectation rather than garnered points I was pleasantly surprised to see myself up £300 when the spreads updated.   Just trying to warn us off going bonkers on the McLaren sell.  One weekend of promise and it could go up 100 points.  If you do it I'd recommend you don't go over £5 a point or it could dwarf the normal size stakes for Fred.

I learn something every day. The plural of Lotus is lotae is it?

Anyway, this is a very good post.

Spread betting compilers are almost always a great deal smarter than their fixed odds counterparts.

A bit like comparing Trigg to Tikay in no limit holdem skillz.

While I have no doubt Peter knows his stuff, the Sporting Index complier is no idiot and I doubt the quote is far wrong. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised if it was priced up to lure in sellers.

Beware.

Exactly what are you suggesting, Mr H?

Think the bookies would price it up as a pick 'em.

8/11, Evs

[tikay]

Quick PS to Tighty's "history" Posts today, the thread began in late January 2012, call it 1st Feb for ease of numbers, so we are in Month 37 now, not Month 30.

While we are on a sort out, & as I have the figures to hand as I was asked yesterday, here are the headline stats.

Number of Bets placed = 4,535

Amount staked = £137,341.70

Average Bet Size = £30.28

Profit = £5,270

ROI = 3.84%

(Mere keeps & audits the Spready independently).

All bets are proofed in advance. 

One other thing, as Tighty said all the stats are viewable on the Spready to everyone. We don't show, or make known, the ROI of individual punters, we are not here to embarass anyone, & we don't want people punting for vanity, to make their figures look better, but doing so without any downside to them.

[hector62]

Tighty.

What are the chances of Wales beating Italy by 40+ and nicking the championship? I think they will really fancy it and they do have the best attack. 9-1 is available. Maybe no Parisse either, not that he was any good today.

[TightEnd]

Tighty.

What are the chances of Wales beating Italy by 40+ and nicking the championship? I think they will really fancy it and they do have the best attack. 9-1 is available. Maybe no Parisse either, not that he was any good today.

Weren't Italy dreadful? worst six n game for many years, amidst stiff competition

i am pondering the championship

Eng 8/11 +37

Ire 7/4 +33

Wales 9/1 +12

i don't think england are odds on, or not by much

i am on wales pre-tournament and think Ireland could be the bet now, in part becuase of the stupendous effort wales put in yesterday. going to be some heavy legs in rome

england missed six cast iron try scoring opportunities yesterday and i think it might cost them

[vegaslover]

Thanks for support all head not been on betting for obvious reasons but....

Just want to echo the Garner bet should be a max single at 6/4

He would be well clear if he had not missed 3 months of this season, his ratio of goals per game this season is 0.73 Williams is 0.56.

He is a proven goalscorer at this level certainly not a flash in the pan, also to add to the bet he will start all the games bar further injury. Andy Williams is far from certain to start 50% of Swindons remaining games.

With Williams one ahead of Garner i would have Garner nearer 4/7 than 6/4. Shame its vc but at least fred can get on

Good to see you back horsey