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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 16370670 times)
horseplayer
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2115 on:
March 27, 2012, 04:51:03 PM »
arbing is very boring!
but well explained
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2116 on:
March 27, 2012, 04:52:27 PM »
To Wawbastard, Jaffa, & anyone who may have debuted (sp?) with a dud, or are on a losing streak, or who suggest they may refrain from tipping due to putting up a loser - DON'T!
Keep sticking them up. When up, the Elders can comment or otherwise, & we can go from there, or not.
No "sorry's", no complaints, no hangdog expressions.
The thread does it's job - much wiser counsel than mugs like me were unaware of this "Free Bet" riddle, & there's no shame in sticking our heads above the parapat & getting it blown away sometimes. It just stings a bit, & it's only a flesh wound.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4
«
Last Edit: March 27, 2012, 05:00:17 PM by tikay
»
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
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(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
claypole
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2117 on:
March 27, 2012, 04:57:34 PM »
You need to get on bet for pre Irish Open morale..... :-)
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2118 on:
March 27, 2012, 04:58:17 PM »
Quote from: claypole on March 27, 2012, 04:39:41 PM
After managing to swerve my first winning bet, I would like to offer a second Tikay.
Leicester City v Forest: Both Teams to Score, 5/6 Blue Square / 888
I think the price here is much nearer the 4/6 that is generally on offer. In both teams last 6 games, all but one have resulted in both teams scoring. Since O' Driscoll has joined the Forest coaching staff Forest are playing more flowing football, Leicester concede 1.25 a game and just over 1 a gamne at home (20 in 19) - and there last four games have averaged over 4 goals. I really cannot see this bet not copping - the only doubt I have is the 4-0 mauling given my Leicester early in the season, however Forest were a different team then.
Away we go, Shauny......
ON, £50 @ 5/6, with Blue Square. I did NOT use my Free Bet I have with them.
Both teams to score @ 5/6
Market
Teams to Score
Event
English Championship
Leicester City v Nottingham Forest
2012-03-27 19:45:00
Bet Type
Bet Type
Win Single
Unit Stake
£50.00
Number of Units
x1
Total Stake
£50.00
Time and Date Placed
2012-03-27 16:57:12
Receipt Number
O/0891659/0000008
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
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(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
claypole
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2119 on:
March 27, 2012, 05:01:34 PM »
Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii - let's get this profitable fortnight on the road ;-) - PS - I'm sending you a PM
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2120 on:
March 27, 2012, 05:02:07 PM »
Quote from: claypole on March 27, 2012, 05:01:34 PM
Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii - let's get this profitable fortnight on the road ;-) - PS - I'm sending you a PM
Is it "send me more money"?
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
claypole
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Posts: 4086
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2121 on:
March 27, 2012, 05:11:39 PM »
Ha ha - read it, it is and it isnt if that makes sense. Meeting with Perform not until 17th, so plan intact for Ireland and UKIPT and a chance I may add Marbella if they don't sort their act out quickly and its a May 1 start
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MereNovice
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2122 on:
March 27, 2012, 05:14:55 PM »
Quote from: The Camel on March 27, 2012, 04:49:02 PM
Quote from: edgascoigne on March 27, 2012, 04:43:33 PM
Quote from: MereNovice on March 27, 2012, 04:34:03 PM
Quote from: edgascoigne on March 27, 2012, 02:58:49 PM
If you're a real badger you wait til you see a (near) arb on
something 5/1+
and arb it off on the exchange.
The closer you get to an arb, the more you can 'realise' of your free bet token. This is the most +EV way to take advantage of these offers, if a little soul-less...
The odds are irrelevant.
Even at 2/1 you "realise" the full value of your token.
Take these two examples, where Tikay has a
hypothetical £100 free bet where winnings only are returned
...
Example A
There is a true 6/4 shot, that he can back at 6/4, and lay on the exchange at 2.5 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).
He has £100 free bet on at 6/4. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £150 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £60 of the selection at 6/4. He now wins £60 if the selection wins (£150 winnings from free bet token - £90 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £60 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).
Ergo he is guaranteed £60, or 60% of the value of his free bet token.
Example B
There is a true 10/1 shot, that he can back at 10/1, and lay on the exchange at 11.0 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).
He has £100 free bet on at 10/1. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £1000 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £90.90 of the selection at 10/1. He now wins £91 if the selection wins (£1000 winnings from free bet token - £909 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £90.90 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).
Ergo he is guaranteed £91, or 91% of the value of his free bet token.
Beautifully explained.
Thanks Mr G.
Yes, nicely explained and thanks.
I was thinking of 100% return if the bet lost (and 0% otherwise) by matching the whole amount of the freebet with a lay on Betfair.
Even then you'd want the biggest odds you could "afford" on Betfair to maximise your chance of getting the 100% return.
Bad reasoning by me all round.
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Reigning Blonde Fantasy Ashes and Super League Champions
edgascoigne
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Newbury Racecourse's Best Dressed Gent. And What?
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2123 on:
March 27, 2012, 05:20:09 PM »
Quote from: MereNovice on March 27, 2012, 05:14:55 PM
Quote from: The Camel on March 27, 2012, 04:49:02 PM
Quote from: edgascoigne on March 27, 2012, 04:43:33 PM
Quote from: MereNovice on March 27, 2012, 04:34:03 PM
Quote from: edgascoigne on March 27, 2012, 02:58:49 PM
If you're a real badger you wait til you see a (near) arb on
something 5/1+
and arb it off on the exchange.
The closer you get to an arb, the more you can 'realise' of your free bet token. This is the most +EV way to take advantage of these offers, if a little soul-less...
The odds are irrelevant.
Even at 2/1 you "realise" the full value of your token.
Take these two examples, where Tikay has a
hypothetical £100 free bet where winnings only are returned
...
Example A
There is a true 6/4 shot, that he can back at 6/4, and lay on the exchange at 2.5 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).
He has £100 free bet on at 6/4. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £150 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £60 of the selection at 6/4. He now wins £60 if the selection wins (£150 winnings from free bet token - £90 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £60 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).
Ergo he is guaranteed £60, or 60% of the value of his free bet token.
Example B
There is a true 10/1 shot, that he can back at 10/1, and lay on the exchange at 11.0 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).
He has £100 free bet on at 10/1. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £1000 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £90.90 of the selection at 10/1. He now wins £91 if the selection wins (£1000 winnings from free bet token - £909 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £90.90 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).
Ergo he is guaranteed £91, or 91% of the value of his free bet token.
Beautifully explained.
Thanks Mr G.
Yes, nicely explained and thanks.
I was thinking of 100% return if the bet lost (and 0% otherwise) by matching the whole amount of the freebet with a lay on Betfair.
Even then you'd want the biggest odds you could "afford" on Betfair to maximise your chance of getting the 100% return.
Bad reasoning by me all round.
No don't worry about it - let's just say I've spent a bit more time than most looking into these things...
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Allez!!
doubleup
Hero Member
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Posts: 7128
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2124 on:
March 27, 2012, 05:22:07 PM »
Quote from: edgascoigne on March 27, 2012, 04:43:33 PM
Quote from: MereNovice on March 27, 2012, 04:34:03 PM
Quote from: edgascoigne on March 27, 2012, 02:58:49 PM
If you're a real badger you wait til you see a (near) arb on
something 5/1+
and arb it off on the exchange.
The closer you get to an arb, the more you can 'realise' of your free bet token. This is the most +EV way to take advantage of these offers, if a little soul-less...
The odds are irrelevant.
Even at 2/1 you "realise" the full value of your token.
Take these two examples, where Tikay has a
hypothetical £100 free bet where winnings only are returned
...
Example A
There is a true 6/4 shot, that he can back at 6/4, and lay on the exchange at 2.5 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).
He has £100 free bet on at 6/4. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £150 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £60 of the selection at 6/4. He now wins £60 if the selection wins (£150 winnings from free bet token - £90 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £60 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).
Ergo he is guaranteed £60, or 60% of the value of his free bet token.
Example B
There is a true 10/1 shot, that he can back at 10/1, and lay on the exchange at 11.0 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).
He has £100 free bet on at 10/1. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £1000 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £90.90 of the selection at 10/1. He now wins £91 if the selection wins (£1000 winnings from free bet token - £909 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £90.90 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).
Ergo he is guaranteed £91, or 91% of the value of his free bet token.
prob is you will virtually never get scenario b to occur
so either go for a or have fun with the Dubai method
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2125 on:
March 27, 2012, 05:40:45 PM »
All this because I messed up - not a bad "mistake" in the end!
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
horseplayer
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Posts: 10314
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2126 on:
March 27, 2012, 05:52:05 PM »
have a good show tonight tikay
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horseplayer
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Posts: 10314
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2127 on:
March 27, 2012, 06:35:28 PM »
mere Russell is out for the windies tonight i believe pretty big loss that
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MereNovice
Gamesmaster
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Posts: 9901
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2128 on:
March 27, 2012, 06:48:57 PM »
Quote from: horseplayer on March 27, 2012, 06:35:28 PM
mere Russell is out for the windies tonight i believe pretty big loss that
Yes. A very inexperienced bowling attack now.
On the plus side, Russell has never hit a six in T20Is.
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Reigning Blonde Fantasy Ashes and Super League Champions
horseplayer
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Posts: 10314
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #2129 on:
March 27, 2012, 07:00:38 PM »
my plan here is to get onside the aussies at halfway at a similar price or maybe bigger expect the windies to set a decent score but will be hard to defend with that attack
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