Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

arbing is very boring!

but well explained

[tikay]

To Wawbastard, Jaffa, & anyone who may have debuted (sp?) with a dud, or are on a losing streak, or who suggest they may refrain from tipping due to putting up a loser - DON'T!

Keep sticking them up. When up, the Elders can comment or otherwise, & we can go from there, or not.

No "sorry's", no complaints, no hangdog expressions.

The thread does it's job - much wiser counsel than mugs like me were unaware of this "Free Bet" riddle, & there's no shame in sticking our heads above the parapat & getting it blown away sometimes. It just stings a bit, & it's only a flesh wound.....


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4

[claypole]

You need to get on bet for pre Irish Open morale..... :-)

[tikay]

After managing to swerve my first winning bet, I would like to offer a second Tikay.

Leicester City v Forest:  Both Teams to Score, 5/6 Blue Square / 888

I think the price here is much nearer the 4/6 that is generally on offer.  In both teams last 6 games, all but one have resulted in both teams scoring.  Since O' Driscoll has joined the Forest coaching staff Forest are playing more flowing football, Leicester concede 1.25 a game and just over 1 a gamne at home (20 in 19) - and there last four games have averaged over 4 goals.  I really cannot see this bet not copping - the only doubt I have is the 4-0 mauling given my Leicester early in the season, however Forest were a different team then.

Away we go, Shauny......

ON, £50 @ 5/6, with Blue Square. I did NOT use my Free Bet I have with them.


Both teams to score @ 5/6 
Market
 Teams to Score
 
Event
 English Championship
Leicester City v Nottingham Forest
2012-03-27 19:45:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £50.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £50.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-03-27 16:57:12
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000008

[claypole]

Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii - let's get this profitable fortnight on the road ;-) - PS - I'm sending you a PM

[tikay]

Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii - let's get this profitable fortnight on the road ;-) - PS - I'm sending you a PM

Is it "send me more money"?

[claypole]

Ha ha - read it, it is and it isnt if that makes sense.  Meeting with Perform not until 17th, so plan intact for Ireland and UKIPT and a chance I may add Marbella if they don't sort their act out quickly and its a May 1 start

[MereNovice]

If you're a real badger you wait til you see a (near) arb on something 5/1+ and arb it off on the exchange.

The closer you get to an arb, the more you can 'realise' of your free bet token. This is the most +EV way to take advantage of these offers, if a little soul-less...

The odds are irrelevant.
Even at 2/1 you "realise" the full value of your token.

Take these two examples, where Tikay has a hypothetical £100 free bet where winnings only are returned...

Example A

There is a true 6/4 shot, that he can back at 6/4, and lay on the exchange at 2.5 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).

He has £100 free bet on at 6/4. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £150 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £60 of the selection at 6/4. He now wins £60 if the selection wins (£150 winnings from free bet token - £90 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £60 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).

Ergo he is guaranteed £60, or 60% of the value of his free bet token.

Example B

There is a true 10/1 shot, that he can back at 10/1, and lay on the exchange at 11.0 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).

He has £100 free bet on at 10/1. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £1000 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £90.90 of the selection at 10/1. He now wins £91 if the selection wins (£1000 winnings from free bet token - £909 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £90.90 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).

Ergo he is guaranteed £91, or 91% of the value of his free bet token.

Beautifully explained.

Thanks Mr G.

Yes, nicely explained and thanks.
I was thinking of 100% return if the bet lost (and 0% otherwise) by matching the whole amount of the freebet with a lay on Betfair.
Even then you'd want the biggest odds you could "afford" on Betfair to maximise your chance of getting the 100% return.
Bad reasoning by me all round.

[edgascoigne]

If you're a real badger you wait til you see a (near) arb on something 5/1+ and arb it off on the exchange.

The closer you get to an arb, the more you can 'realise' of your free bet token. This is the most +EV way to take advantage of these offers, if a little soul-less...

The odds are irrelevant.
Even at 2/1 you "realise" the full value of your token.

Take these two examples, where Tikay has a hypothetical £100 free bet where winnings only are returned...

Example A

There is a true 6/4 shot, that he can back at 6/4, and lay on the exchange at 2.5 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).

He has £100 free bet on at 6/4. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £150 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £60 of the selection at 6/4. He now wins £60 if the selection wins (£150 winnings from free bet token - £90 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £60 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).

Ergo he is guaranteed £60, or 60% of the value of his free bet token.

Example B

There is a true 10/1 shot, that he can back at 10/1, and lay on the exchange at 11.0 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).

He has £100 free bet on at 10/1. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £1000 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £90.90 of the selection at 10/1. He now wins £91 if the selection wins (£1000 winnings from free bet token - £909 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £90.90 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).

Ergo he is guaranteed £91, or 91% of the value of his free bet token.

Beautifully explained.

Thanks Mr G.

Yes, nicely explained and thanks.
I was thinking of 100% return if the bet lost (and 0% otherwise) by matching the whole amount of the freebet with a lay on Betfair.
Even then you'd want the biggest odds you could "afford" on Betfair to maximise your chance of getting the 100% return.
Bad reasoning by me all round.

No don't worry about it - let's just say I've spent a bit more time than most looking into these things...

[doubleup]

If you're a real badger you wait til you see a (near) arb on something 5/1+ and arb it off on the exchange.

The closer you get to an arb, the more you can 'realise' of your free bet token. This is the most +EV way to take advantage of these offers, if a little soul-less...

The odds are irrelevant.
Even at 2/1 you "realise" the full value of your token.

Take these two examples, where Tikay has a hypothetical £100 free bet where winnings only are returned...

Example A

There is a true 6/4 shot, that he can back at 6/4, and lay on the exchange at 2.5 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).

He has £100 free bet on at 6/4. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £150 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £60 of the selection at 6/4. He now wins £60 if the selection wins (£150 winnings from free bet token - £90 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £60 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).

Ergo he is guaranteed £60, or 60% of the value of his free bet token.

Example B

There is a true 10/1 shot, that he can back at 10/1, and lay on the exchange at 11.0 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).

He has £100 free bet on at 10/1. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £1000 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £90.90 of the selection at 10/1. He now wins £91 if the selection wins (£1000 winnings from free bet token - £909 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £90.90 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).

Ergo he is guaranteed £91, or 91% of the value of his free bet token.

prob is you will virtually never get scenario b to occur

so either go for a or have fun with the Dubai method

[tikay]

All this because I messed up - not a bad "mistake" in the end!

[horseplayer]

have a good show tonight tikay

[horseplayer]

mere Russell is out for the windies tonight i believe pretty big loss that

[MereNovice]

mere Russell is out for the windies tonight i believe pretty big loss that

Yes. A very inexperienced bowling attack now.
On the plus side, Russell has never hit a six in T20Is.

[horseplayer]

my plan here is to get onside the aussies at halfway at a similar price or maybe bigger expect the windies to set a decent score but will be hard to defend with that attack