Tips for Tikay

[ACE2M]

i clocked it with the £500 e/w post. Multi forum foolage, excellent work.

[MereNovice]

The second test between Sri Lanka and England starts in the early hours of tomorrow morning. I don't have any strong views on any bets (pending team news) but I'm not going to let that stop me from rambling on a bit.

15 tests have been played at the P Sara Oval in Colombo between 1982 and 2010.
The last six matches have all produced a result.

2010 India won by 5 wickets with 50 overs bowled on day 5. Muralitharan didn't play.
2009 Sri Lanka beat Pakistan by 7 wickets on day 3. Muralitharan didn't play.
2008 Sri Lanka beat India by 8 wickets on day 4. Muralitharan took 5 wickets.
2007 Sri Lanka beat Bangladesh by an innings and 90 runs on day 3. Muralitharan took 5 wickets.
2006 Sri Lanka beat South Africa by 1 wicket with 41 overs bowled on day 5. Muralitharan took 12 wickets.
2005 Sri Lanka beat Bangladesh by an innings and 69 runs on day 3. Muralitharan took 5 wickets.

All of these tests were played in July/August/September but I'm not sure that has any relevance; I don't know much about Sri Lankan weather/conditions.

So apart from 2006, it doesn't look as though Muralitharan influenced the results unduly. Matches have generally been completed well within time although perhaps the two results against Bangladesh don't prove much.

With England needing a win to draw the series, my initial inclination is to lay the draw but that's definitely not a firm tip yet. Betfair have 2.9 to lay the draw which doesn't seem very enticing.

I'm keen to hear other views.

[horseplayer]

i will propose a cricket bet (makes a change from my racing losers)

sri lankan 1st innings partnership to be under 30.5 runs bluesq 5-6

this looks a very fair bet based on past stats for both the sri lankan openers and the england attack. This is a slightly better price than of late and i presume is because broad isnt playing, however bresnan or finn coming in have at least equal test records so i dont think that should be a worry

£30 at 5-6 is my suggestion

[TightEnd]

It's been tropically wet in Colombo in the last 72 hours, and a damp pitch is under covers sweating according to correspondents. Might be conditions that suit us

Hearing England will play Finn and Bresnan instead of Samit and the injured Broad.

No bet until I see the toss/pitch though to be sure.

Too many uncertainties at this stage


My research on the weather (with a view to backing England at or around 2-1, or laying the draw)

shows the following

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

ie compared to when the previous test matches have been played here it is likely to be more seam-friendly

[tikay]

Guys, don't forget "The Masters Tipsters" Comp is here.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=57278.0

[doubleup]

Then there is The Masters, starting Thursday. Due to the volatility of Golf Betting, I will be limiting the amount we invest on The Masters to no more than £100, £150 tops. The roll is way too thin even for that, really. Am more inclined to punt some shorter-prices & less volatile "specials" than go for an outright winner. Outrights will almost certainly be limited to £10 or £20 if EW.

Really appreciate all the input from everyone, thanks.

Paddy Power are top price for lee westwood, pay 6 places ew and return stake if tiger wins - must be worth 10 ew?

[tikay]

The cricket - loving the analysis!

First reaction is 2.9 to lay the draw looks enticing.

Second reaction - I blame Tighty - is that the weather might be all wrong for that. Guess that is why it is such a "good" price on paper.

[tikay]

Then there is The Masters, starting Thursday. Due to the volatility of Golf Betting, I will be limiting the amount we invest on The Masters to no more than £100, £150 tops. The roll is way too thin even for that, really. Am more inclined to punt some shorter-prices & less volatile "specials" than go for an outright winner. Outrights will almost certainly be limited to £10 or £20 if EW.

Really appreciate all the input from everyone, thanks.

Paddy Power are top price for lee westwood, pay 6 places ew and return stake if tiger wins - must be worth 10 ew?

Sounds good for a tenner each way, & I'll almost certaiinly have some of that, but.......

I'm not up on golf stats, how does Lee run @ Augusta, does it suit his game, what is his history there? I know he came 2nd there a few years back, but does he consistently play well there?

On the face of it, deffo looks like he is worth £20.

What about the "win or EW" debate - how does EW betting on golf fit the pricing models?

Lee is currently a best-priced 20/1, see.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/us-masters/winner

[horseplayer]

upto you tikay but i think the price may go soon on the 5-6

[tikay]

i will propose a cricket bet (makes a change from my racing losers)

sri lankan 1st innings partnership to be under 30.5 runs bluesq 5-6

this looks a very fair bet based on past stats for both the sri lankan openers and the england attack. This is a slightly better price than of late and i presume is because broad isnt playing, however bresnan or finn coming in have at least equal test records so i dont think that should be a worry

£30 at 5-6 is my suggestion

Thanks Mr HP.

So many variables could impact upon that - anyone else got views on it?

Our man says the price won't last. Plunge, or pass?

[horseplayer]

heres some more stats for this one

in 16 of the last 20 test innings sri lanka failed to reach 30

in 15 of the last 20 test innings england took the first wicket before 30

skybet are 24.5 for the same bet even that looks a little high to me

[TightEnd]

the stats look good. In essence a punt on Anderson/new ball versus Dilshan and Thirimanne and I would say small odds-on is about reasonably enough

[doubleup]

The betfair place price for lee top 5 finish is 5-1, so you are getting an extra place.  Lee's form has been pretty good lately and he does play ok at the masters - he has finished 11th twice in addition to the 2nd place mentioned (over the last 5 years).

[horseplayer]

heres a picture of the pitch from the tms producer

https://twitter.com/#!/tmsproducer/status/186750699080650752/photo/1

obviously wont be that green tommorow but according to the tms guys on twitter the talk is it will have plenty of life in it.

[horseplayer]

im pretty keen on laying the draw myself tbh mere

j agnew is reporting on twitter the pitch is cracked as well