Tips for Tikay

[the sicilian]

Daily Summary, Tuesday 24th April, 9.45am.

Excuse a garbled report today, I am a tad indisposed, so excuse errors & omissions, my head is all over the place.

We have a NBA winner from Dean, wiiiiii! Only £15 profit, but the Cavs only lost by 9 to the Grizzles, so we binked a monster return of £15. Thanks Dean, about time too.

We looked like getting a return from the West Ham lay, too, but it all went badly wrong after Leicester went 1 up, so we dropped £62 there.

We had a small bet on tonight's Barca-Chelsea slaughter, (0-0, so at least we start on good terms), & a fun wager on Euro 2012, beautifully justified by the eloquent Josehdino.

Tighty has given us his County Cricket selections, but we still need to devise a betting strategy. 

Not sure I fancy punting the Celtic Rangers result, though we might find a sub-market with value.

Today, so far, we just have the Barca game, plus some stuff just posted which I'll deal with when my head is facing the right way.

I'm not sure my daily spreadsheet numbers are correct this morning, we lost a little on the day yesterday (about £47 I think) but our numbers seem to have improved. Await correction by Mereauditor, & amended numbers later, but overall, there's not much in it, & we are tootling along marginally to the good.

Actually im 2-1 up in NBA you have bet from me..watched most of the game last night and 9 points is overly flattering as it was very close until the last couple of minutes when the Cavs got in some foul trouble and chased a bit..

[WarBwastard]

Have we dipped our toe in Real Madrid's confrontation with the Squareheads?  

I am on Moonchen to win the whole bish-bash so I obviously fancy them to qualify from this semi-final.  Historically Munich have always had the better of Madrid, sportingly, politically, alcoholically.  In the European Cup/Champions League they have been drawn together 9 times previously (not including this current fixture).  Munich have 10 wins, Real 6 wins with 2 draws.

Of the 9 away games Munich have qualified 5 times - qualifying under their current circumstances 4 times.  A price of around 2.5 would be perfect.  Red32 are going 13/10.  Most places 6/5.  I know Real Madrid and Barcelona have an Old Firm type monopoly on La Liga and a Spanish final seems likely, but I actually fancy that Jerry's domestic league is stronger and I've felt this for a few seasons now.  

Obviously the final is also being played at the Allianz Arena so there's some extra incentive their for the Bosch to see Real Madrid off.  Real also have just played Barcelona and you wonder if Ronaldo will have had time to re-do his make-up by kick-off time tomorrow.

The price is not quite what we would like ideally, but we're very close.  Added to which I've never felt the final would be Barca and Real and I cannot see Chelsea progressing.

£50 Bayern Moonchen to Qualify - 13/10

Quick question; when doing analysis do we really consider historical results? History matters of course but a completely different team where the guys are in there 50's-70's now; should we really consider the results Der Kaiser et al got?

Not saying it wouldnt win; wouldnt be surprised at any combination of the finals possible.... Barca/Real el classico and my hopes for an "Ideal" final, Bayern/Barca best team in the world vs home team, Chelsea/Real Mourinho a chance to put boot into Chelsea's hope of finally getting CL trophy, Chelsea/Bayern... 2 underdogs overcoming the generally thought final

Historical results shouldn't have any bearing on the present you're right.  But teams or countries do seem to have bogie teams.  It's very tenuous, so it's fair enough to ignore it.  Perhaps though when you're playing against a team you have a bad record against you can convince yourself you're going to lose.  And when you think you're going to lose you find a way to make it happen? Perhaps in this instance it's a cultural thing?  The pattern is explained by the emotionless robotic Squareheads coping better with the pressure than shiny theatric passionate latinos?

[WarBwastard]

horsey & War - will execute both of those a little later, (bit busy right now), thank you.

War - so you CAN make sensible suggestions then? You should be ashamed of that farcical Everton bet. The one we won on.

BRB.

To be fair the Jelavic punt wasn't quite a wild stab in the dark.  I had a big bet on it too (big bet for me).  He has been awesome recently and I have no faith in United's defence, just Everton's record against Man Yoo is so bad it seemed so unlikey so I framed it in a way to sort of get my excuses in early. 

[the sicilian]

NBA again caught my eye :

Phoenix Suns visit the Utah Jazz tonight in what could be a playoff or go home game. Both teams have free flowing offenses both place in the top 7 overall but also lack defensive skills both rating in the bottom 10 overall.

Therefore a total points score of over 199.5 @ nitty 1.65 looks good.

Money line still looks nice at 203

teams are overs of the nitty line as follows:
phoenix are over this in last 9/12 games
utah are over this last 8/10

they have played each other twice :
 03/14 - UTA 111 @ PHX 120
 04/04 - PHX 107 @ UTA 105

As you can see both this seasons matchups were high scoring and both teams are almost at full strength , Hill should be back for Phoenix whilst there is a slight doubt over  Channing at pojnt Guard for Utah.

This is the season for these two so they will be playing hard all the way..

A dirty £50-£75 should suffice..

[Horneris]

Wouldn't leave the Bolton bet too long, I envisage the 4.4 won't last.

[The Camel]

Wouldn't leave the Bolton bet too long, I envisage the 4.4 won't last.

The match I want to get with Bolton is when Muamba either tuns up at the stadium or at training the day before a game.

"Win this one for me" he'll say.

Can't imagine a bigger motivational tool.

Wonder when Coyle will use his trump card.

[tikay]

Wouldn't leave the Bolton bet too long, I envisage the 4.4 won't last.

Thanks for the nudge, been a bit waylaid today, on my way. I don't (yet) have a Betdaq account either, but I can sort it easily enough if they have a standout price. 

[tikay]

Wouldn't leave the Bolton bet too long, I envisage the 4.4 won't last.

Good nudge, got it, thanks.

[tikay]

BOLTON versus Villa suggest £40 win Bolton at 4.4 betdaq

Struggling to see why bolton are not closer to 2-1 for this rather than 3-1+

reasoning :

Villa are 1 from 11 in there last home games.

They have not scored in 5 of those 10 games.

Agbonlahor (doubtful) and Collins (out) are out as well tonight adding to a ever growing injury list.


Bolton are obviously no great shakes but they have done the double over both Blackburn and QPR this season and have also won away to Wolves and Wigan. Infact there record against the bottom half is very good they have literally gained nothing from the top half sides.

Bolton have also beaten villa in the carling cup already this season at villa park.

I was swaying towards draw no bet Bolton but Bolton have yet to draw an away game this season so i prefer the win bet.

We is on, thanks!

£50 @ 4.4 with BetDaq

ON

19:45 Aston Villa v Bolton (TV) - Match Odds   
Back Odds Stake Potential Profit 
 
Bolton 
 4.40 £50.00 £170.00 
 

[tikay]

With help from Mere, the little glitch in the Spreadsheet yesterday has been sorted.

To clarify, we have a trading profit in the month on SETTLED bets of £169. We have already accounted for all April forward bets totalling £310, so we are in profit at present even if they all go south. Many of them, of course, stretch into May & June, so will not settle this month.

A reminder, too, that if we make a trading profit in April (ends Midnight this coming Sunday), then the notional 'roll increases to £3,000, the practical effect of which will be to increase the Max Bet to £150. 

[Horneris]

Wouldn't leave the Bolton bet too long, I envisage the 4.4 won't last.

The match I want to get with Bolton is when Muamba either tuns up at the stadium or at training the day before a game.

"Win this one for me" he'll say.

Can't imagine a bigger motivational tool.

Wonder when Coyle will use his trump card.

Good point, will be interesting.

[Dubai]

£90 Chelsea first booking at 4-9 skybet. Possession market has Barca, 75.5% over/under. Couldn't make Chelsea any bigger than 1-3 for first booking here with that assumed possession

[the sicilian]

With help from Mere, the little glitch in the Spreadsheet yesterday has been sorted.

To clarify, we have a trading profit in the month on SETTLED bets of £169. We have already accounted for all April forward bets totalling £310, so we are in profit at present even if they all go south. Many of them, of course, stretch into May & June, so will not settle this month.

A reminder, too, that if we make a trading profit in April (ends Midnight this coming Sunday), then the notional 'roll increases to £3,000, the practical effect of which will be to increase the Max Bet to £150. 

Link to spreadsheet please

[tikay]

Have we dipped our toe in Real Madrid's confrontation with the Squareheads?  

I am on Moonchen to win the whole bish-bash so I obviously fancy them to qualify from this semi-final.  Historically Munich have always had the better of Madrid, sportingly, politically, alcoholically.  In the European Cup/Champions League they have been drawn together 9 times previously (not including this current fixture).  Munich have 10 wins, Real 6 wins with 2 draws.

Of the 9 away games Munich have qualified 5 times - qualifying under their current circumstances 4 times.  A price of around 2.5 would be perfect.  Red32 are going 13/10.  Most places 6/5.  I know Real Madrid and Barcelona have an Old Firm type monopoly on La Liga and a Spanish final seems likely, but I actually fancy that Jerry's domestic league is stronger and I've felt this for a few seasons now.  

Obviously the final is also being played at the Allianz Arena so there's some extra incentive their for the Bosch to see Real Madrid off.  Real also have just played Barcelona and you wonder if Ronaldo will have had time to re-do his make-up by kick-off time tomorrow.

The price is not quite what we would like ideally, but we're very close.  Added to which I've never felt the final would be Barca and Real and I cannot see Chelsea progressing.

£50 Bayern Moonchen to Qualify - 13/10

Nope, we have no interest hitherto, but we have now. Thanks for a beautifully articulated case, too.

If I have got it right (I'm only 3/1 at best for that.....) then I have slightly beaten the target price, too.

We are on with Betfair, £50 @ 2.4, which is probably close to 13/10 after commissy.

ON

Placed (matched)Back Odds Stake Profit
UEFA Champions League(In-Play)
Bayern MunichTo Reach The Final
    2.4 £50.00 £70.00

[tikay]

With help from Mere, the little glitch in the Spreadsheet yesterday has been sorted.

To clarify, we have a trading profit in the month on SETTLED bets of £169. We have already accounted for all April forward bets totalling £310, so we are in profit at present even if they all go south. Many of them, of course, stretch into May & June, so will not settle this month.

A reminder, too, that if we make a trading profit in April (ends Midnight this coming Sunday), then the notional 'roll increases to £3,000, the practical effect of which will be to increase the Max Bet to £150. 

Link to spreadsheet please

The spreadsheet is linked every morning, in the Daiily Summary.

It includes February & March for those interested, too, via the tabs at the bottom.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=5