Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Ignore me tikay.

A bit too late judging from the results just now coming through

[tikay]

that's premature


the live blog at http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/52728/ has it minute by minute


Psephology at its finest.

Yikes, ANOTHER new word today!

I saw "combinatorically" today - on PHA of all things. (Just a chirp that I read PHA really).

[The Camel]

Tikay... what kind of bets are we looking for ?   something like evens or better...NBA is hugely difficult to call..the skill sets are immense even on the worst teams. I think the trick is to do your homework on injuries,bench players etc as these are the real factors that can make a difference.

Although I take Jeffs points on board I think the injuries to the Knicks players in this game were going to be the most significant factor. TBH i don't think new York could have played any better and for 3 qtrs they overcame the obvious skill difference and injuries etc with sheer guts.. The atmosphere in the garden must have been out of this world and although home court in NBA is always an advantage, on this occasion the crowd really did have a huge impact. Miami turned over the ball horribly..some of their timing and passing was abysmal and I think this was all down to the crowd who were on them every time they had the ball.

In the end it was the injury factor that decided it. If NY had had one more of those players back so the other two big guys could have some respite then i think they may have edged it or at least taken away the spread.

One other big factor was that miami closed out Steve Novak..the best 3 point shooter in the league. he didn't get one clean look all night and scored 0 points.

On this occasion i think we had our edge....  with the NBA im learning to look for the 1 maybe two best looks rather than lots of games.. i still do accas but take the spreads that are a lot safer than the money lines trying to negate the variance... its compensated by the accumalator factor.... its paying so far as i am 14/18 on nba the past week and a bit

Winning ones!

I have no prob with Basketball ones, honest, but I doubt we are good enough to get 2 out of 3 right in the long term. I note your point about dubs & accas, but I'm fiercely opposed to that route.

When I was running my businesses, I looked every day as what we did, to see where the leaks were, see what we could try to do better. I do the same here.

Then we have the "volume (to beat variance) v very infequent argument". Volume works for many, but I don't have time to back loads of bets daily, & I'm not addicted (yet....) & personally, I prefer less bets, more selective.

The "League Table" of Tipsters has two prominent names in the Top 4 who give us one tip per week, on average. The rest of the Top Ten is made up of those who give us Tips, on average, less than once per fortnight. OK, variance & sample size distort that (we only have about 250 bets, from about 60 uniques), but it is just food for thought.

My plan is not so much to make money, as make enough to keep ticking over, & if we stay profitable, we can increase the 'roll.

BUT........

Loads of people bet different ways, it's all good, & lots of them read & back all the tips on here, so I don't want you to stop posting your bets, not at all, but please just be understanding that if I (the Thread Fund) swerves or blanks a bet, it's not personal or anything. And yes, I miss a lot of winners, (& a few losers), too.

The best basketball punters in the world couldn't average 2 out of 3

Maybe 55:45 if you are incredible is possible.

[tikay]

Perhaps (probably) my "2 out of 3" was a gross exaggaration, but you get my drift, if most are @ 4/6 or whatever, we ain't half got to go some.

[Graham C]

Ignore me tikay.

A bit too late judging from the results just now coming through

Not the worst bet ever Rich, there's only 130k in it and the gap is closing.SSn reporting it to he very very close

[MereNovice]

Rugby League.
Wigan v Hull KR
Anytime try scorer
Kris Welham 3/1 on SkyBet

I must be missing something here but this is a very generous price.
Hull KR are, in all likelihood, going to get battered but Welham has scored 10 tries in 12 appearances this year.
Other bookies have him MUCH shorter.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/club-rugby/super-league/wigan-v-hull-k-r/anytime-tryscorer

Definitely worth a small bet - no more than £50.

[MereNovice]

that's premature


the live blog at http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/52728/ has it minute by minute


Psephology at its finest.

Yikes, ANOTHER new word today!

I saw "combinatorically" today - on PHA of all things. (Just a chirp that I read PHA really).

I'd say that he was making words up. Perhaps he was thinking of combinatorially?

[MereNovice]

Rugby League.
Wigan v Hull KR
Anytime try scorer
Kris Welham 3/1 on SkyBet

I must be missing something here but this is a very generous price.
Hull KR are, in all likelihood, going to get battered but Welham has scored 10 tries in 12 appearances this year.
Other bookies have him MUCH shorter.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/club-rugby/super-league/wigan-v-hull-k-r/anytime-tryscorer

Definitely worth a small bet - no more than £50.

He can now be laid at 2/1 on Betfair so you can get yourself a nice arb.
1 minute to kick-off!

[hector62]

Tomorrow evening Catalan play Huddersfield at rugby league at Catalan. You may remember 3 weeks ago we backed Catalan to beat Warrington at home, which they did by over 20 points. Huddersfield are not as good a team as Warrington, although they are top of the table, but they have had a relatively easy start to the campaign. This match will be a real test for Huddersfield and I do not think they are up to it. If they play to their potential then I think Catalan will comfortably win. With the hot weather and hard pitch Catalan are capable of winning by 20+ points.
 
I recommend you place £40 at 13/5 with Paddy Power  that Catalan win by 13+ points.

[scotty2hatty]

Coolavanny Bert just won its R2 heat in the Derby. Happy with that from an unfavourable draw.

[tikay]

Rugby League.
Wigan v Hull KR
Anytime try scorer
Kris Welham 3/1 on SkyBet

I must be missing something here but this is a very generous price.
Hull KR are, in all likelihood, going to get battered but Welham has scored 10 tries in 12 appearances this year.
Other bookies have him MUCH shorter.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/club-rugby/super-league/wigan-v-hull-k-r/anytime-tryscorer

Definitely worth a small bet - no more than £50.

Bugger, please don't recomend "instant" bets whist I'm having a bath.

So, I missed the price (your fault, obv) but we have £50 @ 11/4. he must have shortened with good reason presumbly.

ON


Kris Welham
Anytime Tryscorer: Wigan 0-0 Hull KR 11/4 £50.00 £187.50 O/10805850/0000057 
Watch on TV: Sky Sports 1 No Live Commentary  No In-Play Bets 
)

[tikay]

Coolavanny Bert just won its R2 heat in the Derby. Happy with that from an unfavourable draw.

Was that one of the Tips you gave me? If so, that'll teach me to dither, & well done you.

Price now slashed to what, please?

[MereNovice]

Rugby League.
Wigan v Hull KR
Anytime try scorer
Kris Welham 3/1 on SkyBet

I must be missing something here but this is a very generous price.
Hull KR are, in all likelihood, going to get battered but Welham has scored 10 tries in 12 appearances this year.
Other bookies have him MUCH shorter.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/club-rugby/super-league/wigan-v-hull-k-r/anytime-tryscorer

Definitely worth a small bet - no more than £50.

Bugger, please don't recomend "instant" bets whist I'm having a bath.

So, I missed the price (your fault, obv) but we have £50 @ 11/4. he must have shortened with good reason presumbly.

ON


Kris Welham
Anytime Tryscorer: Wigan 0-0 Hull KR 11/4 £50.00 £187.50 O/10805850/0000057 
Watch on TV: Sky Sports 1 No Live Commentary  No In-Play Bets 
)

Sorry! I like to wait for the Sky Sports coverage to start (at 7:30pm) before placing a bet so that I can check latest team news and match conditions.

[scotty2hatty]

Coolavanny Bert just won its R2 heat in the Derby. Happy with that from an unfavourable draw.

Was that one of the Tips you gave me? If so, that'll teach me to dither, & well done you.

Price now slashed to what, please?

Yes, was one of the ones I suggested. We'll find out adjusted price after the round.

[tikay]

Hector - thanks.

Will get on that later tonight, or in the morning, after Mere's bet has increased our worldly wealth.