Tips for Tikay

[Nico29]

Wow 11s is huge he's going to be trying to impress for euro2012 as well as cabaye and a few others, don't think EVertob have many potential internationals and I genuinely don't rate then. Hibbert, neveille, et al will hopefully not be able to cope with or front 3. Defending set pieces is perhaps a problem area for us, although we have 2 strikers who can head the ball which is very rare.

Shola last goal scorer worth a put of 10s+

I do think Everton at 2.14 on betfair seems quite short, don't know if I could go all out on Newcastle though, would like the draw on my side too. Either double chance Newcastle@3/4 or Newcastle off Zero on the handicap-effectively draw no bet just diff market-with bet victor@8/5-all depends how much of a nit you are.

Personally seeing as they play so much to his strengths and the guy is on fire right now i'd much rather bet fgs on Cisse@6's with pp and the offer of refunded losing certain bets up to 100 quid if there's a goal in the last 5 minutes.

Quite a nice/dirty arby thing to do wld be to back him for a ton with pp and lay most of it off at similar on betfair. Thus if he scores first you win a fair bit, if he doesn't but there's a goal in the last 5 you'l get a refund and whatever you laid back on betfair.  Little risk for nice rewards with lots going for your wager.

Best price available too. In recent weeks it's been laughable that the books haven't cottoned on to how much of a supporting role Ba has been playing and he's often been the same price as Cisse to score first. Today it looks like they finally have and 8's is available on him now-i'd want double figures on him though.

If I was betting i'd be on the Pappa and the 13s on him getting two or more with pads seems quite decent too, he was 17's to do so at Chelsea.

[The Camel]

If say 16s is about the right price absent any individual motivational factors, how much motivation are you going to need to get to get to about 10s (before it's even small value!) It's an awful bet imo and nowhere near 'huge' - the reasoning for it just seems like talking yourself into a bet rather than the other way around.

Adnmdv, every time you post you remind me of these guys:

Click to see full-size image.

You sit on the sidelines until someone makes a crap selection and then deride them for doing so!

[Nico29]

Something ive noticed and usually backed each year (havent got stats to hand) is normally goals in last game of season when game means nothing to either side, assume defenders more adventurous and away teams more cavalier as want to score to thank fans etc

4 games today where nothing to play for

Chelsea Blackburn
Norwich Villa
Swansea Liverpool
Wigan Wolves

Various ways you can be with the bet, ones id recommend for thread are small acca on over 2.5 and small acca both teams to score. Il be just betting them singly but hard work for thread

Will leave someone who isnt on phone to work out what bookie best for both accas

Chelsea Blackburn
Norwich Villa
Swansea Liverpool
Wigan Wolves

Doesn't seem huge differences between firms, Chelsea overs price seem very short imo@2-5.

From quick glance at prices i'd say maybe ladbrokes or betfred would be best for the acca, but like i say not huge amount in it.

[redarmi]

I don't think the Ben Arfa bet is a bad one.  If you assume the game prices are correct in Asia (and it is definitely a possibility Everton are too short) and take Ben Arfa's Neqcastle goal percentage as his long term average of 18% then the correct price is 14.60 according to my model.  If Pads is right about the motivational aspect then it is probably fair value.....it is certainly not horrible value and at BF prices is probably value......not taking top price is unforgivable though especially when it is on BF

[The Camel]

Gold:

[The Camel]

If say 16s is about the right price absent any individual motivational factors, how much motivation are you going to need to get to get to about 10s (before it's even small value!) It's an awful bet imo and nowhere near 'huge' - the reasoning for it just seems like talking yourself into a bet rather than the other way around.

Adnmdv, every time you post you remind me of these guys:

Click to see full-size image.

You sit on the sidelines until someone makes a crap selection and then deride them for doing so!

I can deride 90% of the selections in this thread instead if you'd like. Stood out that one as some awful reasoning + justification (initially tipping up 9/1 as well)

It's not what you say, it's the way that you say it.

99.9% of punters aren't as shrewd as you.

Perhaps you could try teaching us, rather than taking the piss out of us.

[Dubai]

Or offer to lay the bets?

 If you ever think i put up a duff tip you are more than welcome to lay me a bet upto an infinite amount on the said selection

[pleno1]

If Baines is still injured then it also obviously helps us alot as Distin has looked distinctively average when I';ve seen him at left back.

[MereNovice]

Serena Williams has just beaten world number one Victoria Azarenka 6-1 6-3 in the final of the Madrid Open.
She can now be laid at 7/2 for the French Open on Betfair.

[pleno1]

Krul , perch , Williamson , colo , santon , jonas , tiote , cabaye , Ben Arfa , ba , cisse

[pleno1]

Howard; Hibbert, Heitinga, Jagielka, Baines; Osman, Gibson, Neville, Pienaar; Jelavic, Fellaini.

[pleno1]

we dont do well vs quick forwards, but Williamson can control big guys and Collocini is always great, vs Jelavic we should be ok.

Jonas, Ben Arfa, Cabaye and Tiote vs Osman, Piennar Gibson and Neville should be too strong.

[pleno1]

just lumped on WBA.

Arsenal team looks vvvvv average

WBA - Fulop; Jones, McAuley, Olsson, Ridgewell; Cox, Morrison, Mulumbu, Dorrans; Fortune, Long

Arsenal - Szczesny, Jenkinson, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Santos, Rosicky, Song, Coquelin, Benayoun, Gervinho, RvP.

Hodgsons last game, West Brom are very dangerous attacking. I mean look at that Arsenal defence!

49/10 on betfair!! is absolutely huge!

[pleno1]

this WBA bet is huge. Santon and Jenkinson are both terrible defensively and have Benayoun and gervinho supporting them?

[pleno1]

somebody persuade me not to put my net on?