Tips for Tikay

[MajorMajor]

I'm on Mypa!

[bobby1]

The favs were a little disappointing in rehearsal for ESC Tony.

From the live blog.

Sweden is virtually the same performance as the national final. They now have to do all the backing vocals live and three backing singers are placed behind the podium, but off camera. They are not providing anything like the power needed to produce the full sound of the studio version. Most of the performances is either a mess of hair or shot in silhouette so there is no real connection to the camera and the audience. It dance moves flow well, but it’s rather unexciting. I still expect to see it qualify, but it need to improve and get a great draw to be a contender to win. Right Now Russia, Romania, Iceland and Serbia are ahead of it

It turns out the singer had a bit of a bad throat so that might account for the blip in performance tho, nice to see Russia again mentioned in the best rehearsal's list.

[bobby1]

Can I dip my toe into the NBA waters?  Miami are 6.5 point favourites at home tonight against the Pacers.  In the first game they were 7.5 point favourites and won fairly comfortably by 8 but zig zag theory (which is the theory that a team that won the first game of a series should be half a point or more shorter faves or bigger dogs because of the extra motivation for a team behind in the series) means the line should be 7 this game at least and then Chris Bosh is out.  Bosh is the lesser of the three superstars in Miami but he is very important and because they stretched their salary cap so much the fall off to the squad players is more pronounced than it is for other teams and I would make a two point adjustment for Bosh personally making the correct line 5.  Added to that the Heat are a 'public' team and lines are generally shaded in their favour anyway and theoretically it could be as low as 4.5 and that ties in with our bet laying the Heat for the rings.  Not a massive bet but maybe £50 +7 10/11 with Hills?

good shout mate, I dipped my toe into the NBA and had a little too. thanks

[tikay]

Can I dip my toe into the NBA waters?  Miami are 6.5 point favourites at home tonight against the Pacers.  In the first game they were 7.5 point favourites and won fairly comfortably by 8 but zig zag theory (which is the theory that a team that won the first game of a series should be half a point or more shorter faves or bigger dogs because of the extra motivation for a team behind in the series) means the line should be 7 this game at least and then Chris Bosh is out.  Bosh is the lesser of the three superstars in Miami but he is very important and because they stretched their salary cap so much the fall off to the squad players is more pronounced than it is for other teams and I would make a two point adjustment for Bosh personally making the correct line 5.  Added to that the Heat are a 'public' team and lines are generally shaded in their favour anyway and theoretically it could be as low as 4.5 and that ties in with our bet laying the Heat for the rings.  Not a massive bet but maybe £50 +7 10/11 with Hills?

good shout mate, I dipped my toe into the NBA and had a little too. thanks

Yes, I forgot to say that, well done red, thank you.

This format still troubles me as a betting medium though, & it's a bit forward to think we've cracked it. Am not trying to be Mr Wet Blanket, or pretend I understand either the sport, or how to bet on it.

But I do understand simple logic. At 10/11 per bet, we need to get 4 out of every 6 right, & I don't think we can. OR we need to go the doubles/multiples route, which will have the bookies salivating, though if we go that route, at least we'll never get restricted.

Interesting.

Meanwhile, we have laid Miami Heat, and that WOULD produce a decent return. Any views on where we are with that bet?

[77dave]

With the Chicago Bulls out no team should knock the Heat out before the NBA Finals. The heat are currently 4/11 to get to the final.

The 2 teams that Dean has tipped to beat them are in the other conference so 1 will have to beat the other to meet the Heat in the final.

Miami are currently 8/5 to win the title and i imagine you laid them at a much higher price, so in that sense the bet isnt in great shape, but the team isnt playing its best since the playoffs started and are def beatable.

[tikay]

With the Chicago Bulls out no team should knock the Heat out before the NBA Finals. The heat are currently 4/11 to get to the final.

The 2 teams that Dean has tipped to beat them are in the other conference so 1 will have to beat the other to meet the Heat in the final.

Miami are currently 8/5 to win the title and i imagine you laid them at a much higher price, so in that sense the bet isnt in great shape, but the team isnt playing its best since the playoffs started and are def beatable.

Thanks Jim.

I still struggle with Exchange Betting vocbulary, but I believe we laid Miami Heat @ 3.3.

See here, Row 11 of "May" Bets. ......

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=6

[77dave]

ok so laying at 3.3 means the price was 2.3/1 so about 9/4 and its now 8/5.

[redarmi]

With the Chicago Bulls out no team should knock the Heat out before the NBA Finals. The heat are currently 4/11 to get to the final.

The 2 teams that Dean has tipped to beat them are in the other conference so 1 will have to beat the other to meet the Heat in the final.

Miami are currently 8/5 to win the title and i imagine you laid them at a much higher price, so in that sense the bet isnt in great shape, but the team isnt playing its best since the playoffs started and are def beatable.

The NBA is a very hard sport to beat although you only actually need to hit 53% to be winning....nobody will win more than about 58% in the long run and that includes people like Billy Walters.  When I was a bookie in that market Jim Batista was a punter of ours and he was the guy that got sent to prison for moving money for Tim Donaghy the so called bent NBA ref and even he didn't hit higher than that in the long run.  Although I watch a fair bit of it I rarely bet on the NBA now and the playoffs tend to get more of my attention because there is more public money so fading the bigger teams can be profitable.

On the Heat, Bosh is out for the duration of this series according to yesterdays local paper here in Miami.  They definitely missed him yesterday and I would be a big layer at 4/11 for them to reach the finals.  I haven't seen a number for the next game in Indy but I would definitely want to be with the Pacers again at +2 or bigger.  Anyone got a view on the Lakers game tonight?  The contrarian in me really wants to get with the Lakers after they got thumped the other night but I was expecting a bit more pricewise.  It may climb though and at +9 I think I would be a player.

[tikay]

With the Chicago Bulls out no team should knock the Heat out before the NBA Finals. The heat are currently 4/11 to get to the final.

The 2 teams that Dean has tipped to beat them are in the other conference so 1 will have to beat the other to meet the Heat in the final.

Miami are currently 8/5 to win the title and i imagine you laid them at a much higher price, so in that sense the bet isnt in great shape, but the team isnt playing its best since the playoffs started and are def beatable.

The NBA is a very hard sport to beat although you only actually need to hit 53% to be winning....nobody will win more than about 58% in the long run and that includes people like Billy Walters.  When I was a bookie in that market Jim Batista was a punter of ours and he was the guy that got sent to prison for moving money for Tim Donaghy the so called bent NBA ref and even he didn't hit higher than that in the long run.  Although I watch a fair bit of it I rarely bet on the NBA now and the playoffs tend to get more of my attention because there is more public money so fading the bigger teams can be profitable.

On the Heat, Bosh is out for the duration of this series according to yesterdays local paper here in Miami.  They definitely missed him yesterday and I would be a big layer at 4/11 for them to reach the finals.  I haven't seen a number for the next game in Indy but I would definitely want to be with the Pacers again at +2 or bigger.  Anyone got a view on the Lakers game tonight?  The contrarian in me really wants to get with the Lakers after they got thumped the other night but I was expecting a bit more pricewise.  It may climb though and at +9 I think I would be a player.

Thanks very much, most illuminating.

If able, could you keep us posted later today, please? I'll bimble about a dabble.

[hector62]

World Matchplay Golf starts tomorrow.

Sadly no longer at Wentworth, hasn't been for years, and sadly no longer a world class field. But at least it shouldn't be cold and wet.

Recommend £10e/w N Colsaerts 14-1 Skybet.

Colsaerts  performed well in his only start at this tournament.  It is being held at the same Spanish course as last year where he got to the semi-final, losing at the 19th hole to the eventual winner Poulter. Colsaerts is in good form with 2 top 10 finishes in his last 4 starts. The course favours longer hitters with a bit of gamble to their game which is perfect for him.

[the sicilian]

Watched most of the heats games v New York & Pacers and i haven't been that impressed..Game 1 v new york they were awesome but the rest of the series especially as it went on not so much.

They seem to be a team of individuals rather than a team. Bosh is a quite a big blow for them as his a great rebounder and can score... they lean on lebronde heavily but he can tire and as said their bench is not the deepest... Wade can blow hot and cold..his a superstar but he can miss a bunch of consecutive shots. Last night the pacers scored 2 baskets for the entire 2nd qtr literally missing everything but went in at half time only 5 points down.

If lebronde goes down injured they will be done.

I have a hunch..so no betting that they won't even win the conference... the pacers are going to push them all the way and with the next two games in Indiana the Heat are really going to have to step up.

I have a sneak for the Celtics for the conference..they play as a team and their ageing stars seem to be playing a level above expected..they have the experience and are good in clutch situations.They play excellent D and can seem to score when needed.

 Last night the heats desperation via their play was very noticeable as they tried to come from behind late.. most interesting was lebronde ( who is deadly from the free throw line ) missed 2 free throws in the last minute that would have given the Heat the lead..this clutch frailty has been seen before..

[tikay]

World Matchplay Golf starts tomorrow.

Sadly no longer at Wentworth, hasn't been for years, and sadly no longer a world class field. But at least it shouldn't be cold and wet.

Recommend £10e/w N Colsaerts 14-1 Skybet.

Colsaerts  performed well in his only start at this tournament.  It is being held at the same Spanish course as last year where he got to the semi-final, losing at the 19th hole to the eventual winner Poulter. Colsaerts is in good form with 2 top 10 finishes in his last 4 starts. The course favours longer hitters with a bit of gamble to their game which is perfect for him.

Many thanks hector, for a well-argued case.

I was actually hoping we might have some interest in the World Matchplay. 

Back in the day, when at Wentworth, & sponsored by "Piccadilly", it was SUCH a great event. I really don't know what it's like these days, but I have fond memories of it.

Arnold Palmer & Gary Player dominated it originally, then Seve won it 4 or 5 times, & Ernie Els - who had a house adjoining the course at the time - won it loads of times, including 3 on the bounce.

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volvo_World_Match_Play_Championship

We have quite a few Golf Experts here, so would welcome some input from them as to a few lively bets, but unless they get really heavy with us, I'll certainly follow your tip & speculate a tenner each way.

Click to see full-size image.

[Chompy]

OK, no bimbling or bombling, time for a ESC punt.

I'm not convinced Sweden is right for the Euro weirdos and not surprised the word is that rehearsals aren't going great.

It can be laid at 1.17 to be out of the top ten. France were shorter last year and that crashed.

It pays to be aggressive on ESC markets so...

Top ten market - lay £300 at 1.17, risking £51.

Also, lay £200 @ 3 in the outright market, risking £400. This is for a trade further down the line. Be surprised if it doesn't hit 5+ before the night. Sigh, I miss being able to get in on this action.

If you don't like this one or don't want to tie up four hundo, just go with the top ten lay @ 1.17.


Euro weirdos...

[redarmi]

Pacers are -1 for the next game which suggests the bookies have adjusted correctly now so definitely no play there.  If anything I prefer the Heat at that number.

[Nico29]

Don't wanna bok u chomps but totally agree with yr view on sweden.

The first rehearsal was terrible soundwise.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wLqR0AOeSc&feature=plcp

Just been doing some 'research' of my own and the greek entry has a rather attractive looking lady singing their entry-to say the least, probs got no chance though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isPtzi5cxBg

Think I may have found the winner, 16's ew with boyles top 3, or 14's elsewhere first 4 looks a good ew bet.

Really good pedigree in eurovision (2nd b4 and has even hosted the show) and is well known in loadsa euro countries.

My only gripe was it seemed quite a short song, but meh didn't drag on for ages, should appeal to wide audience too, even got violens and stuff!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75weifR47m0
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%BDeljko_Joksimovi%C4%87