Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 I didn't get a chance to watch any racing today and I have no idea how that horse ran or whether it was a good bet.

 I would say though that in 16,17 and 18 runner handicaps with 1st four places paid it is almost impossible to have an each-way bet that is -ev on the place part. Those races are very heavily scewed in favour of the punter and against the bookmaker. It is not until you get to 24 runners plus that the balance starts to tip.


 Some things to consider in deciding if you should back ew or win with these ones are if the horse is a win or come nowhere, likely to do very well but with a chance of blowing out. Horses that are in a handicap for the first time, that are trying a new longer trip, that are on ground they haven't experienced, that are coming off a long lay-off and that are wearing blinkers for the first time are generally worse ew bets as they often crash out completely.

 Horses that ran to their best recently, that have form on the trip or are down in trip, that have form on the ground and in races like this one with a favourite less than 3/1 and 16-20 runners are often superb ew bets.

 If you can get 1st 5 places then it's happy days.

 Unfortunately that bleeding machine makes it easy for everyone to identify these now and so it is harder to get bets on in these races.

 Bookmakers used to look at them as a bit of a lottery.

[tikay]

I didn't get a chance to watch any racing today and I have no idea how that horse ran or whether it was a good bet.

 I would say though that in 16,17 and 18 runner handicaps with 1st four places paid it is almost impossible to have an each-way bet that is -ev on the place part. Those races are very heavily scewed in favour of the punter and against the bookmaker. It is not until you get to 24 runners plus that the balance starts to tip.


 Some things to consider in deciding if you should back ew or win with these ones are if the horse is a win or come nowhere, likely to do very well but with a chance of blowing out. Horses that are in a handicap for the first time, that are trying a new longer trip, that are on ground they haven't experienced, that are coming off a long lay-off and that are wearing blinkers for the first time are generally worse ew bets as they often crash out completely.

 Horses that ran to their best recently, that have form on the trip or are down in trip, that have form on the ground and in races like this one with a favourite less than 3/1 and 16-20 runners are often superb ew bets.

 If you can get 1st 5 places then it's happy days.

 Unfortunately that bleeding machine makes it easy for everyone to identify these now and so it is harder to get bets on in these races.

 Bookmakers used to look at them as a bit of a lottery.

Thanks Neil.

[tikay]

Not the worst cricket day

The Chanderpaul bet is virtually in, well done guys

WI 243-9 at the close. Day to England if we bat well tomorrow.

Yes, we'll struggle to lose the Chandrapaul bet now. Very pleased.

As for England's position, presumably, you'd be looking for 450-500 from England now?

[tikay]

Gonna suggest a darts punt, but with reasoning;

Back Hamilton to win title @ 18/1

Hamiltons semi is vs Whitlock. Hamilton has played his best game last few weeks whereas Whitlock has been relatively poor. Also Whitlock has never beaten Hamilton on tv

Hamilton will probably go on to meet Taylor in the final (the sticky bit)

However Hamilton will be on a high, and will start quickly. Taylor doesn't like playing catch up and if he is ever going to get beat it will be a to quick starter who makes him tighten up. Taylor has also been title less for sometime and could feel the heat.

Also if wadey beats Taylor the bet will look ok.

So £10 on Hamilton @ 18/1 (it's a punt with logic, not sure Dubai would endorse)

For a "debut" tip, you've got some balls, I'll give you that Guy!

Give it 20 minutes, & if we don't get dissed Eddie Kidd/MANTIS style, we'll have a tenner for fun. Stranger things have happened!

[TightEnd]

Not the worst cricket day

The Chanderpaul bet is virtually in, well done guys

WI 243-9 at the close. Day to England if we bat well tomorrow.

Yes, we'll struggle to lose the Chandrapaul bet now. Very pleased.

As for England's position, presumably, you'd be looking for 450-500 from England now?

That's the hope. Bat for 2 days

Rampaul, the WI only bowler for English swing conditions on form and in theory, is out with a back replaced by a young tearaway

So get 450, bowl them out again

Knowing this thread recently, it won't work out like that!

[Snowball]

Gonna suggest a darts punt, but with reasoning;

Back Hamilton to win title @ 18/1

Hamiltons semi is vs Whitlock. Hamilton has played his best game last few weeks whereas Whitlock has been relatively poor. Also Whitlock has never beaten Hamilton on tv

Hamilton will probably go on to meet Taylor in the final (the sticky bit)

However Hamilton will be on a high, and will start quickly. Taylor doesn't like playing catch up and if he is ever going to get beat it will be a to quick starter who makes him tighten up. Taylor has also been title less for sometime and could feel the heat.

Also if wadey beats Taylor the bet will look ok.

So £10 on Hamilton @ 18/1 (it's a punt with logic, not sure Dubai would endorse)

It's worth a small wager imo.Hamilton the past 6 months has been very hard to beat and always seems to be very hard to break.
He took a few weeks to get used to the PL but he has lost only once in the past 8 matches which was a narrow 8-6 defeat to Taylor, pretty sure he lead for most of that match.
He seems to have the Indian sign over Whitlock and to me Hamilton has been far more consistent than him of late.
18/1 looks slightly overpriced.

[tikay]

Tomorrow, these two gee-gees are the incorrect prices with Bet£3.65 if you ask me...

Midnight Rider, 5.40 Newmarket @ 5/1 (I'd go 3/1)
Botham, 7.25 Hamilton @ 10/1 (I'd go 6/1)

Suggest you help yourself.

Helped myself.

Got £25 on "BOTHAM" @ 10/1 with Bet365, but could only get £20 on Midnight Rider @ 5/1 with Bet365. They offered it at 4/1 for the balance, but I exercised my declining option. 

ON

Botham @ 10/1
£25.00 Single 17/05/2012 18:55:30 25.00 0.00
 
Midnight Rider @ 5/1
£20.00 Single 17/05/2012 18:54:43 20.00 0.00
 

[tikay]

Gonna suggest a darts punt, but with reasoning;

Back Hamilton to win title @ 18/1

Hamiltons semi is vs Whitlock. Hamilton has played his best game last few weeks whereas Whitlock has been relatively poor. Also Whitlock has never beaten Hamilton on tv

Hamilton will probably go on to meet Taylor in the final (the sticky bit)

However Hamilton will be on a high, and will start quickly. Taylor doesn't like playing catch up and if he is ever going to get beat it will be a to quick starter who makes him tighten up. Taylor has also been title less for sometime and could feel the heat.

Also if wadey beats Taylor the bet will look ok.

So £10 on Hamilton @ 18/1 (it's a punt with logic, not sure Dubai would endorse)

It's worth a small wager imo.Hamilton the past 6 months has been very hard to beat and always seems to be very hard to break.
He took a few weeks to get used to the PL but he has lost only once in the past 8 matches which was a narrow 8-6 defeat to Taylor, pretty sure he lead for most of that match.
He seems to have the Indian sign over Whitlock and to me Hamilton has been far more consistent than him of late.
18/1 looks slightly overpriced.

Nice one. Outrageous's outrageous bet has a fan. God help them both if Dubai arrives & sees the bet.

Anyway, we have our weekly darts sweat lined up, so that's good, & the worst that can happen is we have set fire to £10.

[Snowball]

If you have enough time Tikay, I recommend Whitlock most 180s v Hamilton £60 @ 10/11 Corals
Whitlock averages 1 every 3.5
Hamilton 1 every 4.14
Whitlock had 37 more 140's.
Whitlock won both matches in this years Pl in the 180 hth

[tikay]

If you have enough time Tikay, I recommend Whitlock most 180s v Hamilton £60 @ 10/11 Corals
Whitlock averages 1 every 3.5
Hamilton 1 every 4.14
Whitlock had 37 more 140's.
Whitlock won both matches in this years Pl in the 180 hth

Missed it - literally - by about the time it toook the very first dart to be thrown! (Attempted to bet £66)

  Simon Whitlock Simon Whitlock v Andy Hamilton17/05/2012 19:15Most 180s(In Play) Simon Whitlock @ 10/11 10/11       
 Est. returns: £126.00 
Simon Whitlock v Andy Hamilton has started

[outragous76]

break in the 1st

[outragous76]

incred stuff!

And really bad for our bet that he is calm as you like

[Snowball]

If you have enough time Tikay, I recommend Whitlock most 180s v Hamilton £60 @ 10/11 Corals
Whitlock averages 1 every 3.5
Hamilton 1 every 4.14
Whitlock had 37 more 140's.
Whitlock won both matches in this years Pl in the 180 hth

Missed it - literally - by about the time it toook the very first dart to be thrown! (Attempted to bet £66)

  Simon Whitlock Simon Whitlock v Andy Hamilton17/05/2012 19:15Most 180s(In Play) Simon Whitlock @ 10/11 10/11       
 Est. returns: £126.00 
Simon Whitlock v Andy Hamilton has started

9 Darter Whitlock 2nd Leg

[outragous76]

2 breaks up in his 1st match

[bobby1]

What is your view of betting in the place only market on BF in those kind of races Neil?

Obv the place price is nearer to correct than at the rigid qtr first 4 but sometimes I want to bet one to place only, having the same on for a place than an ew bet would cost. That race is a good example as i backed the 2nd place only as i wasnt sure it was hcapped to win but thought it was sure to run its race.