Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

I asked someone that would know and apparently the right split is 35% first half and 65% second half although he said it could possibly be a bit .  I need to get new friends!!!!

[dino1980]

They said on commentary last night its head to heads?

Was a draw anyway, so doesn't change the above.

If it's a 2-2 draw or higher and Italy beat Ireland then Cro/Spa qualify because they'd have scored more goals in the games between Cro/Ita/Spa as Italy have drawn 1-1 against both opponents.

Here's a link to all eight tie-breakers in order - http://leastthing.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/uefa-euro-2012-tiebreakers.html

But c) - copy and pasted below is the pertinent one in this situation, for whatever reason it ranks above goal difference.

c) higher number of goals scored in the matches among the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal on points);

[tikay]

What price were Storm & Tempest in the France - Ukraine game?

[scotty2hatty]

They said on commentary last night its head to heads?

Was a draw anyway, so doesn't change the above.

If it's a 2-2 draw or higher and Italy beat Ireland then Cro/Spa qualify because they'd have scored more goals in the games between Cro/Ita/Spa as Italy have drawn 1-1 against both opponents.

Here's a link to all eight tie-breakers in order - http://leastthing.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/uefa-euro-2012-tiebreakers.html

But c) - copy and pasted below is the pertinent one in this situation, for whatever reason it ranks above goal difference.

c) higher number of goals scored in the matches among the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal on points);

TY

[tikay]

you have to hand it to Paddy Power Tony. Bendtner got into trouble for flashing his Paddy Power pants after scoring the other day?

Paddy Power must have more complaints and fines from the ASA than Ryanair, they are incorrigible!

I quite like the "I hear you" series.

Whereas that Ladbrokes one scores highly on the irritate-o-meter.

[tikay]

I think if you want to bet over bookings the you have to go with the betfair market.  I am not sufficiently versed on how the distribution of bookings changes over the course of the game but logic would suggest that they should increase fairly significantly as the game goes on so I don't think that the under 27 minutes would be better.  Like Bobbys bet.  We have three aerial threats in Carroll, Terry and Lescott and they all match up well in terms of height with their two central defenders Melberg and Graqvist so assume either Toivonen or Ibrahimovic will have to take up the other one.   Apparently England were practising crossing into Walcott and Welbeck yesterday too which can only add to the value.

Since August 2010

Parker has 11 yellows

Time distributions -
1st half = 5
2nd Half = 6

10 min period of matches -
2 in 20 - 30 mins
1 in 30 - 40 mins
1 in 40 - 50 mins
1 in 50 - 60 mins
2 in 70 - 80 mins
3 in 80mins+


Ashley Cole has 15 Yellows

1st half = 4
2nd half = 11

10 min period of matches -
1 in 20 - 30 mins
1 in 30 - 40 mins
2 in 40 - 50 mins
2 in 60 - 70 mins
4 in 70 - 80 mins
4 in 80mins+

This is a typical distribution across more players than this shows, trending towards later in the game obviously.

Only added as i had the data because Tikay is making me justify my banzai!

There you go tikay - scott parker is accross the board for first booking and Cashley is 14s despite being more booking prone although they do tend to be later in the game. Coupled with my expert of analysis of he's likely to clatter ibra early and the ref is card happy, i think we're getting some value on the banzai.



Thats club football only btw.

If you had said it was a Banzai I would have been on already........

[tikay]

Oioiiiiiiiiiiiiii. Even by my limited maths ability I think the tennis bet can't lose! Nice one Mere you abs hero.

Well done Mere!

[Karabiner]

A friend of mine wants to know what banzai means please. I told him I think it means speculative punt but maybe wrong. Thanks

What's the cut expected to be in the us open too please

I think "Banzai", in this case, means "daft but fun". Silly bets @ silly prices.  Don't tell the Elders, that sorta thng.

US Open cut? Top 60 & ties, currently projected to be +4. 

Not quite Tony, that's what the cut would have been after one round.

If the course is playing similarly which it appears to be then the "projected" cut is +8.

[tikay]

Bookings Sweden/England

Both had 2 booked game 1, this should be a robust game with Carroll up against Scandinavian bearded behemoths, much at stake all round. Both teams are not possession led passing style teams, so this could see more direct confrontations

Referee Damir Skomina will take charge of England's Euro 2012 Group D game against Sweden.

Uefa has confirmed the appointment of Damir Skomina, the Slovenian referee who so infuriated Arsène Wenger as Arsenal bowed out of the Champions League last season, to officiate England's match with Sweden in Kiev on Friday.

Skomina actually took charge of six games involving Premier League clubs in Europe last season, showing 32 yellow cards and one red. That dismissal was for Benfica's Maxi Pereira in the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final against Chelsea, though English teams have suffered red cards at his hand in the recent past.


He refereed Holland v Denmark this week, 4 yellows


The question is which booking market, if we want to be long of "card points" is the most attractive


Paddy Power have time of first booking under 27 minutes at 5/6

BWIN over 3.5 bookings appears priced in at 8/15

BWIN has a red card (one only) at 17/5

Betfair has http://sports.betfair.com/football/market?id=1.105898161

10 points are awarded for a yellow card and 25 points for a red. Two yellow cards leading to an automatic red will score as one yellow and one red card. Maximum 35 points per player. Cards will only count which are shown to players after they take to the pitch for the first time and before they leave the pitch for the final time. This market will be suspended at kick off. All bets apply to 90 minutes of play according to the match officials, plus any stoppage time.

Betfair's own column tips 25-45 points at 2.76 http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/euro-2012-tips/euro2012-day-seven-tips-bet-on-benzema-150612-194.html

"Bookings
There were only two bookings when these two met in a friendly in November. There were three in the World Cup meeting in 2006. England had two bookings in their opener last week, as did Sweden. It'll be a robust, fair, matey affair because the players know each other pretty well. A wager of 25-45 booking points at 2.75 looks shrewd."

Favourite in that market is over 45 points at 1.94

So many of the above factors are anticipated, I suppose

Open to thoughts here, please...about which of these, or other discipline bets, is value

I think its worth a banzai on Ashley Cole to be first player booked. He gets booked a lot, up there with the most prolific and does like to give the star player a big wallop early to let em know hes there and IBRA usually starts out on that side of the pitch, he gets away with it loads as he does it in the first 2 mins usually.

14/1 with PP available.

I hear you ACE2M.

Not sure yet on Tighty's thoughts overall, but I guess he asked for feedback, from which this arose.

We have £20, Ashley Cole, first booking, Paddy Power, 20/1.

ON

[redarmi]

How ironic it will be if this Ukraine game is postponed until tomorrow and the Ukrainian FA have to find a hotel to take them at short notice tonight at exorbitant rates that they said were fair!!!

[tikay]

A friend of mine wants to know what banzai means please. I told him I think it means speculative punt but maybe wrong. Thanks

What's the cut expected to be in the us open too please

I think "Banzai", in this case, means "daft but fun". Silly bets @ silly prices.  Don't tell the Elders, that sorta thng.

US Open cut? Top 60 & ties, currently projected to be +4. 

Not quite Tony, that's what the cut would have been after one round.

If the course is playing similarly which it appears to be then the "projected" cut is +8.

Gotcha Ralph, thanks, though I replied before play for Day Two began, it was, as you say, the closing position.

Watching it, & the scoring now, wow, how tough is that Course playing! Think they said a 2 handicap Club handicapper would likely shoot 84-85 today!

[TightEnd]

I couldn't find the right bookings bet. So lets go Cashley, clatter Zlatan!

[Karabiner]

A friend of mine wants to know what banzai means please. I told him I think it means speculative punt but maybe wrong. Thanks

What's the cut expected to be in the us open too please

I think "Banzai", in this case, means "daft but fun". Silly bets @ silly prices.  Don't tell the Elders, that sorta thng.

US Open cut? Top 60 & ties, currently projected to be +4. 

Not quite Tony, that's what the cut would have been after one round.

If the course is playing similarly which it appears to be then the "projected" cut is +8.

Gotcha Ralph, thanks, though I replied before play for Day Two began, it was, as you say, the closing position.

Watching it, & the scoring now, wow, how tough is that Course playing! Think they said a 2 handicap Club handicapper would likely shoot 84-85 today!

I think it's what they call "brudal".

I think they're (the USGA) getting their own back for accidentally producing a receptive course last year that was destroyed by an in-form bomber in the shape of McIlroy. This is more their default set-up.

[smashedagain]

A friend of mine wants to know what banzai means please. I told him I think it means speculative punt but maybe wrong. Thanks

What's the cut expected to be in the us open too please

I think "Banzai", in this case, means "daft but fun". Silly bets @ silly prices.  Don't tell the Elders, that sorta thng.

US Open cut? Top 60 & ties, currently projected to be +4. 

Not quite Tony, that's what the cut would have been after one round.

If the course is playing similarly which it appears to be then the "projected" cut is +8.

Gotcha Ralph, thanks, though I replied before play for Day Two began, it was, as you say, the closing position.

Watching it, & the scoring now, wow, how tough is that Course playing! Think they said a 2 handicap Club handicapper would likely shoot 84-85 today!

Oh that's a bit better for the young lad making the cut, still an uphill battle for him ( or should that be a downhill putt). Watch the eagle go in live for your man  yesterday too. Found myself cheering a guy I never heard of

[Bazzaboy]

Rendall Munroe @ 7/4 v Scott Quigg

This has the makings of a very good fight but the prices are wrong as far as I'm concerned.  Munroe was European Champion from 2008-2010 and had an unsuccessful world title shot in 2010.  Since then his career has stagnated somewhat however I think motivation has been a problem for him as his promoter has been unable to deliver big fights for him.  Quigg is a decent talent but he is not hard to hit, there are also question marks over his chin after he got dropped by the feather fisted Jamie Arthur in his last fight.  The biggest scalp on his record is Jason Booth who was a decent operator in his day but he was shot to shit by the time he fought Quigg.  This is a big step up in class for him and I can see Munroe comfortably outboxing him for a pretty comfortable UD.  

Recommend £80 @ 7/4 Betvictor