Tips for Tikay

[MereNovice]

Rugby League  Leeds v Wakefield tonight.

Ordinarily this would be a simple win for Leeds. However there are reasons to look to oppose them tonight. Firstly they are not playing well and have lost 4 out of their last 5 matches, admittedly against some good teams. More importantly there is also  the fact of Saturdays games. Leeds had 6 players playing for England against the exiles and 4 playing against Ireland. It is a huge task to play games at this level with only a 1 day rest. Add in the recent wins that Wakefield have had, 3 from 5, and their confidence will be high. Wakefield are certainly capable of scoring and as long as they can keep the game close for 20 mins then I think they could win this.

Recommend Wakefield £20 @ 5-1 BetVictor  £5 draw @35-1 BetFair.

On.

Your last but one Rugby League bet was for a similar upset for Hull KR v Warrington which came up trumps.
You also gave us a near thing with Castleford v Salford.
This is a bit different because Wakefield are the away team but I'm happy to back your judgement.
Wakefield are without Danny Kirmond but seem to have a pretty full squad to choose from.

I was otherwise engaged this afternoon and missed the recommended price but took 9/2 for Wakefield at Boylesport and 41/1 for the draw at Betfair.

hector62   Boylesports   RL   Leeds v Wakefield   Wakefield   9/2   £20
hector62   Betfair   RL   Leeds v Wakefield   Draw   41/1   £5


Leeds Carnegie vs. Wakefield Wildcats
Match Betting   Wakefield Wildcats   9/2
Total stake    £20.00
Estimated return    £110.00

Draw   42   £5.00   £205.00
Ref: 20513406190 Bet placed: 17:36 18-Jun-12


Good luck.

[nirvana]

Opened up the spreadsheet for the first time and had a look over the last few months.

Good work on the spreadsheet Mere. Felt nerdy but really found it fascinating to be able to look back over a whole bunch of bets

[MereNovice]

Opened up the spreadsheet for the first time and had a look over the last few months.

Good work on the spreadsheet Mere. Felt nerdy but really found it fascinating to be able to look back over a whole bunch of bets

Thanks, glad you enjoyed it.

[Acidmouse]

Rugby League  Leeds v Wakefield tonight.

Ordinarily this would be a simple win for Leeds. However there are reasons to look to oppose them tonight. Firstly they are not playing well and have lost 4 out of their last 5 matches, admittedly against some good teams. More importantly there is also  the fact of Saturdays games. Leeds had 6 players playing for England against the exiles and 4 playing against Ireland. It is a huge task to play games at this level with only a 1 day rest. Add in the recent wins that Wakefield have had, 3 from 5, and their confidence will be high. Wakefield are certainly capable of scoring and as long as they can keep the game close for 20 mins then I think they could win this.

Recommend Wakefield £20 @ 5-1 BetVictor  £5 draw @35-1 BetFair.

its a good price on Wakey, an absolute disgrace the game is today with so many leeds players involved at the weekend. Already shot to bits and needing a rest. I would not even play 2-3 of them tonight. Leeds will be so fired up for this, the last two weeks the club and players have been under a deep cloud with crisis talks and whispers of lots of players being released if things dont improve. They need to win this, no ifs or buts and for that reason i see leeds youngsters digging deep and getting a win...

[MereNovice]

Italy are 8/11 with StanJames to qualify from Group C of Euro2012.
Does this look like value?
They are 4/9 to beat Ireland.

[redarmi]

Yeah it is too big imo.  Best way to fade the fix probably actually.

[MereNovice]

Italy are 8/11 with StanJames to qualify from Group C of Euro2012.
Does this look like value?
They are 4/9 to beat Ireland.

On.

I'm going to take responsibility for this one.

MereNovice   StanJames   Football   Euro2012: Group C qualifier   Italy   8/11   £55

£55.00 Single
    Selection   Price
Euro 2012 - Group Betting - To Qualify : Group C - To Qualify   Italy   8/11
Total stake    £55.00
Estimated return    £95.00

[OverTheBorder]

Italy are 8/11 with StanJames to qualify from Group C of Euro2012.
Does this look like value?
They are 4/9 to beat Ireland.

On.

I'm going to take responsibility for this one.

MereNovice   StanJames   Football   Euro2012: Group C qualifier   Italy   8/11   £55

£55.00 Single
    Selection   Price
Euro 2012 - Group Betting - To Qualify : Group C - To Qualify   Italy   8/11
Total stake    £55.00
Estimated return    £95.00

I like this bet in isolation but with our Croatia bet it looks a bit like a green out/cover bet.  If it wins at the expense of Croatia we don't break even on the market to qualify from this group.  If the fix does happen we end up cutting £55 off our potential £100ish (cant remember) Croatia win.  Saying that Croatia will beat Spain now and we will get the nut result, just throwing my 2p worth in

[MereNovice]

Italy are 8/11 with StanJames to qualify from Group C of Euro2012.
Does this look like value?
They are 4/9 to beat Ireland.

On.

I'm going to take responsibility for this one.

MereNovice   StanJames   Football   Euro2012: Group C qualifier   Italy   8/11   £55

£55.00 Single
    Selection   Price
Euro 2012 - Group Betting - To Qualify : Group C - To Qualify   Italy   8/11
Total stake    £55.00
Estimated return    £95.00

I like this bet in isolation but with our Croatia bet it looks a bit like a green out/cover bet.  If it wins at the expense of Croatia we don't break even on the market to qualify from this group.  If the fix does happen we end up cutting £55 off our potential £100ish (cant remember) Croatia win.  Saying that Croatia will beat Spain now and we will get the nut result, just throwing my 2p worth in

That's a very fair comment, well expressed.
I weighed up all the factors and decided that the possibility of a nut result justified the bet.
It wasn't a sneaky attempt to partially hedge our Croatia bet at all - definitely not.
We will win £140 (less £55) on the Croatia bet if they go through.

[MereNovice]

Looks like we missed a bet on Italy corners.
SpreadEx currently have them to score 11 corners on their own.

[Acidmouse]

all gone wrong for wakey wakey two early tries for leeds. (wakey scored 2 tries back!) 12-12

[MereNovice]

all gone wrong for wakey wakey two early tries for leeds. (wakey scored 2 tries back!) 12-12

Come on Wakefield!

[MereNovice]

Half-time in the football:

Italy 1 Republic of Ireland 0
italy have had 7 corners to 1

Croatia 0 Spain 0
Spain have had 3 corners to 1

[hector62]

As I am bored with the footee I will give you the reasoning behind the Wakefield bet. I have already justified the bet on form, fitness etc but this is theoretical.

Imagine that I got abducted this afternoon by aliens. They said that they liked to eat humans and their favourite bits were testicles. They told me that if I didn't predict the result of this match then they would remove my testicles and pan fry them for supper. Obviously under those circumstances I will opt for Leeds.

However, the head alien says that as I am such a nice  chap giving out wining tips on this thread for nothing he will give me a different option. In this option they say that if I choose Wakefield and they lose I will have to let them eat the little finger on my left hand. But if they win I will get to spend 3 days and nights with a pair of stunning 18 year old twins, and I will never get caught in my lifetime by a speed camera.

All about risk and reward innit! In other words 5-1 was too big a price.

[MereNovice]

You have a way with words - and a fine eye for a good opportunity.

24 all at half-time.

Hold!