Italy are 8/11 with StanJames to qualify from Group C of Euro2012.
Does this look like value?
They are 4/9 to beat Ireland.
On.I'm going to take responsibility for this one.
MereNovice StanJames Football Euro2012: Group C qualifier Italy 8/11 £55
£55.00 Single
Selection Price
Euro 2012 - Group Betting - To Qualify : Group C - To Qualify Italy 8/11
Total stake £55.00
Estimated return £95.00I like this bet in isolation but with our Croatia bet it looks a bit like a green out/cover bet. If it wins at the expense of Croatia we don't break even on the market to qualify from this group. If the fix does happen we end up cutting £55 off our potential £100ish (cant remember) Croatia win. Saying that Croatia will beat Spain now and we will get the nut result, just throwing my 2p worth in
That's a very fair comment, well expressed.
I weighed up all the factors and decided that the possibility of a nut result justified the bet.
It wasn't a sneaky attempt to partially hedge our Croatia bet at all - definitely not.
We will win £140 (less £55) on the Croatia bet if they go through.
This logic is completely wrong.
Having a bet on Italy to qualify has no effect on the outcome of our previous bet.
Our thinking process should be
Do we view this as a value bet?
If yes, then does this new bet mean we are over exposed to Italy qualifying through other bets, such as Croatia not to qualify?
If the answer is no, we bet.
As we have already backed Croatia to qualify, this makes it a better bet, and not a worse one. Reducing variance is better than increasing variance pretty much always. This is barring extreme events such as if we don't make at least £100 from group C qualificaqtion betting we lose our little finger to a canabilistic alien who has a nice sideline in pimping nubile twins.
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