Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Funnily enough I was just thinking about this myself.  The Czechs certainly have a decent goalscoring record but they haven't really played anyone.  The last time they played a really decent team was Spain last year and they lost 2-0 at home.  They also failed to score against Norway, Peru and Japan last year so whilst they have scored in every game here so far and in their last nine consecutive games they have also failed to scored in four of the six games before that so i would be inclined to put it down to variance.  The current market prices suggest they are about a true 4/5 shot to score today and that seems about right to me.

[MereNovice]

Funnily enough I was just thinking about this myself.  The Czechs certainly have a decent goalscoring record but they haven't really played anyone.  The last time they played a really decent team was Spain last year and they lost 2-0 at home.  They also failed to score against Norway, Peru and Japan last year so whilst they have scored in every game here so far and in their last nine consecutive games they have also failed to scored in four of the six games before that so i would be inclined to put it down to variance.  The current market prices suggest they are about a true 4/5 shot to score today and that seems about right to me.

Presumably it's much harder to set odds for international matches because you have a much smaller sample size in a relevant period of time?

[redarmi]

Yeah there is certainly more guess work but there are also bigger advantages too because you can be pretty sure that the market will overestimate the chances of the teams and players it is familiar with and also any disharmony in a big camp like Holland for example can offer opportunities that you tend not to get at a local league level.

[AceHighSuited]

hi mere as stated in my maiden post i work for a small independent and the positive vibe came from there it obviously went south.

The other horse i was going to put up was Born To Surprise in  the Britania Stakes but having doubt checked the r i am going to swerve that now.

I must get back to work and apologies to anyone who followed my selections so far.  i will break my duck soon.

[MereNovice]

hi mere as stated in my maiden post i work for a small independent and the positive vibe came from there it obviously went south.

The other horse i was going to put up was Born To Surprise in  the Britania Stakes but having doubt checked the r i am going to swerve that now.

I must get back to work and apologies to anyone who followed my selections so far.  i will break my duck soon.

Sorry, I forgot about your previous post.
Unlucky with the tip, it happens to everyone, I'm sure.

Generally, the thread doesn't back tips like that.
We tend to like to weigh the pros and cons and debate the issues before placing a bet. Of course, by that time, the price has usually gone but that's due to my slowness in getting bets on.

I look forward to more recommendations and I'm sure you'll break your duck soon.

[MereNovice]

I may not be available for the football so I'll summarise my understanding of the advice for tonight's game:

Some people think that it will be tight and go to penalties but the best way to bet this is to bet on the draw and then bet on extra time being a draw.
Some people think Portugal will win but then it may well be better to dutch the 1-0 & 2-0 results rather back the win outright at 1.75.
One person thinks that there will be a lot of corners but other people think it will be more cagey.
We also have a recommendation on a low number of bookings that looks good apart from the fact that the booking amnesty may mean there are more late bookings than might otherwise be the case.

[MereNovice]

We're pretty bad so far at the Individual games, and the games are very efficiently priced

I could easily see the Czechs frustrating the Portugese, and it going to extra time

I think corner stats from the group games bear no relevance to the Quarters, one off cagey games i would think, especially for the underdogs like Czechs and Greece


Prefer to see quirky bets myself

For example the two teams tonight have 11 yellows in six group games (6 Cz, 5 Port), so just under 2 a game each

The Czechs committed 61 fouls, most in the tournament, though

http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=2012/statistics/round=15172/teams/index.html

Tonight's ref is Howard Webb

He booked 3 Italy v Croatia

No bookings Russia v Czech


Is there possibly any mileage in bookings markets, say under 40 points at 15/8 PP?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/czech-republic-v-portugal/total-booking-points

I've plumped for this one in the end.
I'm relying on the good nature of professional footballers not to get carried away or be cynical.

On.

TightEnd   PaddyPower   Football   Euro2012: Czech Rep v Portugal - bookings   < 40 points   15/8   40

Win
Single: Under 40 Points @ 15/8
1 line at £40.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £40.00
Potential returns: £115.00

[peejaytwo]

Generally, the thread doesn't back tips like that.
We tend to like to weigh the pros and cons and debate the issues before placing a bet. Of course, by that time, the price has usually gone but that's due to my slowness in getting bets on.

ive got a thought provoking one for you and the price wont go either.

HILLS YES/NO COUPON CZECH V PORTUGAL
ALL 6 PAYS 33/1

1, will ronaldo score in normal time
2,will the match be a draw at Ht
3, will there be 10 corners or more
4, will there be a goal after 74.59 and b4 end of normal time
5, 4 or more cards in normal time
6,will all 6 subs be used

for there to be value each leg should be 4/5 or under (average)

prices/thoughts

1. tough one,now 2.06 to score so its a pick em
2. draw prices at 2.24 on bf so NO is just ok
3. spin make 11 the midpoint of their quote,and its 1.66 >10.5 on bf YES
4. spin time of last goal at 59-62 so big NO
5. spin midpoint 49,bf go 1.98 45 and above so would prob be 4/5 40 or more YES (better if it was not webb reffing tho)
6. 1.64 on bf so big YES

So a couple of confident selections and a couple of tricky ones,but at 33/1 you may have a couple of lines or vary stakes to how you fancy. Unf i couldn't find the coupon on the website to cut/paste.

[redarmi]

Problem is that some of them are negatively correlated.  If there is over 10 corners in the game and Ronaldo score it is less likely to be a draw at for example.  I would be pretty surprised if it was value.  FWIW I also think Ronaldo should be a bit bigger to score at anytime.

[RickBFA]

Generally, the thread doesn't back tips like that.
We tend to like to weigh the pros and cons and debate the issues before placing a bet. Of course, by that time, the price has usually gone but that's due to my slowness in getting bets on.

ive got a thought provoking one for you and the price wont go either.

HILLS YES/NO COUPON CZECH V PORTUGAL
ALL 6 PAYS 33/1

1, will ronaldo score in normal time
2,will the match be a draw at Ht
3, will there be 10 corners or more
4, will there be a goal after 74.59 and b4 end of normal time
5, 4 or more cards in normal time
6,will all 6 subs be used

for there to be value each leg should be 4/5 or under (average)

prices/thoughts

1. tough one,now 2.06 to score so its a pick em
2. draw prices at 2.24 on bf so NO is just ok
3. spin make 11 the midpoint of their quote,and its 1.66 >10.5 on bf YES
4. spin time of last goal at 59-62 so big NO
5. spin midpoint 49,bf go 1.98 45 and above so would prob be 4/5 40 or more YES (better if it was not webb reffing tho)
6. 1.64 on bf so big YES

So a couple of confident selections and a couple of tricky ones,but at 33/1 you may have a couple of lines or vary stakes to how you fancy. Unf i couldn't find the coupon on the website to cut/paste.

Looks like the type of bet bookies love to me.

[peejaytwo]

1. evs
2  5/6
3  8/13
4  4/6
5  4/5
6  8/13

is how spin/bf/my prices
small edge but you will come out in front backing 28/1 shots at 33/1

[peejaytwo]

Looks like the type of bet bookies love to me.

in general yes,but as poker players say "you do the math"
they want to fill the till with mug bets from people who just think yes/no,but in my opinion 3 of those match ups are priced wrong,two are right on the money,and question 1 is the pick em.

[redarmi]

Ronaldo down to 1.98 to score in todays game now on Betfair.  Think this is a really decent lay.  I can't have him shorter than 5/4.

[bobby1]

Ronaldo down to 1.98 to score in todays game now on Betfair.  Think this is a really decent lay.  I can't have him shorter than 5/4.

That really is a 'countdown to kick off plunge' deffo too short now. Ive laid a little,  Thanks Red.

Fred should have a little lay imo.

[kpnuts]

Ronaldo down to 1.98 to score in todays game now on Betfair.  Think this is a really decent lay.  I can't have him shorter than 5/4.

That really is a 'countdown to kick off plunge' deffo too short now. Ive laid a little,  Thanks Red.

Fred should have a little lay imo.

Good spot, followed u in. Should be fun to funk against the winker anyway! GL us