Tips for Tikay

[c4ught]

Figured I would put this here to see if anyone can help me out in understanding a few things!

European GP - Qual/Winner Double
Lay (Bet against) Any Other Combination - 4.5

The combinations listed consist of these drivers: Vettel/Hamilton/Alonso/Rosberg/Raikkonen/Grosjean

So if we lay the bet we are betting that one of the above will get pole because if they dont we end up paying out!
Am I correct in thinking we are in essence backing one of the above drivers to get pole @ 1.285?

Have I worked this out correctly?

No - they have to get pole and win the race but your 1.28 calculation is basically correct although bear in mind the effect of commission on betfair.

Cheers for the reply.

The bet posted above is the lay of any other combination so I don't think they have to go on to win the race as once one of the above got pole our "customer" has lost!

[MereNovice]

Hull KR 10 Catalan Dragons 13

This was a game riddled with errors in awful conditions at times.
The Dragons scraped home in the end.
It was looking like a draw so, as we didn't have our usual saver, I guess I'm glad that there was a positive result.

[mondatoo]

Think I might've asked this question itt before but don't remember it being answered, why do bet365 regularly do this promo ? how is it profitable ?Will have to get involved, ldo, but no idea what to go with.

Also is backing Eng/Ita pre match and the draw post ko a terrible idea ?

It's all about "Acquisition" Ray.

Acquisition is key to any succesful Online Gaming Site, be it Betting, Poker, or whatever.

Look at it this way. These numbers are hypothetical, but not far from the truth.....

If we have an AVERAGE CPA (CPA - "Cost per Acquisition", (per new Client) ), of, say, £50, & our AVERAGE MPU (Margin Per Unique) is £100 per year, we make an average of £50 per unique. Multilply that by x,000 players, then factor in an average of, say, x years revenue or margin from each new Client, & you then have an assumed revenue per acquisition, or new Client.  As long as that assumed revenue is greater than the CPA, we are gonna make money on the thing.

So, if Bet365 "give us" £50, & sign up x,000 players off the back of that deal, we can assume they expect to earn a return of £x per acquisition.

Think about how much the AVERAGE betting Client loses per annum, & then compare that to, say an average CPA of  £50.

All figures are hypothetical.

Agree that is why they do it but it is only about acquisition if it is only available for new punters and they offer it to their existing punters too so it is about loyalty too.  As much as I dislike their approach to my own bets (I can't have any) I do admire them massively.  They have a truly amazing business and they have built it in 10% of the time of most of their rivals.  They do pretty much everything well.

That makes sense but I'm suprised giving this offer to current customers every couple of weeks like they have lately makes good business sense to gain those new customers.

How much loyalty would you expect punters to show ? I'd be suprised if any of the big firms got much loyalty from punters.

[redarmi]

Figured I would put this here to see if anyone can help me out in understanding a few things!

European GP - Qual/Winner Double
Lay (Bet against) Any Other Combination - 4.5

The combinations listed consist of these drivers: Vettel/Hamilton/Alonso/Rosberg/Raikkonen/Grosjean

So if we lay the bet we are betting that one of the above will get pole because if they dont we end up paying out!
Am I correct in thinking we are in essence backing one of the above drivers to get pole @ 1.285?

Have I worked this out correctly?

No - they have to get pole and win the race but your 1.28 calculation is basically correct although bear in mind the effect of commission on betfair.

Cheers for the reply.

The bet posted above is the lay of any other combination so I don't think they have to go on to win the race as once one of the above got pole our "customer" has lost!

You are absolutely right.  Seems a fair lay right?

[MereNovice]

Figured I would put this here to see if anyone can help me out in understanding a few things!

European GP - Qual/Winner Double
Lay (Bet against) Any Other Combination - 4.5

The combinations listed consist of these drivers: Vettel/Hamilton/Alonso/Rosberg/Raikkonen/Grosjean

So if we lay the bet we are betting that one of the above will get pole because if they dont we end up paying out!
Am I correct in thinking we are in essence backing one of the above drivers to get pole @ 1.285?

Have I worked this out correctly?

No - they have to get pole and win the race but your 1.28 calculation is basically correct although bear in mind the effect of commission on betfair.

Cheers for the reply.

The bet posted above is the lay of any other combination so I don't think they have to go on to win the race as once one of the above got pole our "customer" has lost!

You are absolutely right.  Seems a fair lay right?

There's a lot of slack in that market on Betfair.
If you went for a lay at 4, I'm pretty sure that it would get taken.

[MereNovice]

Euro2012 Finalists Virtual Bet.

I believe that the first thing that needs to happen is for Spain to win their group today. If they come second they would end up with a semi-final against Germany assuming both teams got that far.

The current best odds for this are 1.21 on Betfair so I have invested ten groats on this.

It was a close run thing but we got there when Jesus Navaz scored in the 88th minute for Spain.
We now have 12 groats (after Betfair commission).

The next game for this "accumulator" is on Friday when Germany meet Greece.
Germany are currently 1.17 on Betfair to qualify (also StanJames and Ladbrokes).
I'll wait to see if the odds improve before re-investing my 12 groats.

We have 12 groats on Germany to qualify at 1.17 with Ladbrokes.
The best price now available is 1.14.

We now have 14 groats.
I have placed it all on Spain to qualify against France @ 1.4 on Ladbrokes.

[redarmi]

Thinking on maybe it isn't a great value lay.  You effectively get Maldonado, Button, Schumi,Medoza and Massa with a >1% chance.  Pole is huge this year so q winner has a very big chance.  It looks about right when you do the maths albeit fairly fuzzy maths.

[c4ught]

Figured I would put this here to see if anyone can help me out in understanding a few things!

European GP - Qual/Winner Double
Lay (Bet against) Any Other Combination - 4.5

The combinations listed consist of these drivers: Vettel/Hamilton/Alonso/Rosberg/Raikkonen/Grosjean

So if we lay the bet we are betting that one of the above will get pole because if they dont we end up paying out!
Am I correct in thinking we are in essence backing one of the above drivers to get pole @ 1.285?

Have I worked this out correctly?

No - they have to get pole and win the race but your 1.28 calculation is basically correct although bear in mind the effect of commission on betfair.

Cheers for the reply.

The bet posted above is the lay of any other combination so I don't think they have to go on to win the race as once one of the above got pole our "customer" has lost!

You are absolutely right.  Seems a fair lay right?

I thought it looked a great lay at first but then when I turned it round into backing either Vettel/Hamilton/Alonso/Rosberg/Raikkonen/Grosjean @ 1.28 I didn't think it looked anywhere near as good as I first thought. With the cars so close this season no one can be wrote off confidently. An interesting bet though depending on who the combinations are made up of.

[MereNovice]

Daily Update, as @ 05:30, Saturday June 23rd

LOSS on Month = £790.34

Unsettled Bets = £327.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=8

[MereNovice]

Daily Summary, as @ 06:30, Saturday June 23rd

The football didn't turn out quite as expected. Fred's Greece+1.5 bet lost despite Greece scoring twice.
Germany scored four without Gomez which doesn't bode well for our top goal scorer bet.

Hull KR lost a close match against Catalan Dragons after leading for much of the game.

In the cricket, Surrey lost to Essex off the last ball and Glamorgan lost to Somerset with a ball to spare.

On a brighter note the England v West Indies ODI was washed out so we didn't lose any money on that.

In the golf, Mahan and Moore were both on -1 when the second round was suspended. The leader is on -8.

I think tikay needs to bink another poker tournament - soon.
Send more money.

[MereNovice]

What's coming up?

We have the third quarter-final of Euro2012: Spain v France. We'd like France to progress with Benzema scoring oodles of goals. Failing that we'll accept goals from Llorente.

The golf continues today and we need big performances from our two runners, Mahan and Moore.

In rugby union we need England to summon up the bulldog spirit and beat South Africa. There are also other South v North Hemisphere clashes but we have no interest in these matches as yet.

There's qualifying for the European Grand Prix in Valencia.

Ireland play Australia in a cricket ODI, weather permitting.

Glamorgan play Gloucestershire in T20 cricket.

There's some tennis at Eastbourne.

Royal Ascot continues.

It's another busy day.

[millidonk]

That's what I like to see, updates at a reasonable time. Wp mere. I don't actually contribute a great deal to this fred but I do love it. Hope TK appreciates your work mere and maybe brings you something nice back from V-town.

[MereNovice]

That's what I like to see, updates at a reasonable time. Wp mere. I don't actually contribute a great deal to this fred but I do love it. Hope TK appreciates your work mere and maybe brings you something nice back from V-town.

Thanks.
We aim to please.

[henrik777]

2nd half most corners 10/11 will hill.

If a team is behind then it bodes really well for this and a cagey start would be expected. Both teams have produced corners in decent numbers hence the overs are 12 in places.

Lack of time is the reason for the brief write up.

Sandy

[aaron1867]

France v Spain

My bet today would be for <2.5 goals. I can only see no more than 2 goals in this match.

It will be 4-5-1 v 4-5-1, so therefore it it gonig to be hard to break down either team. I also add that no player from either teams is having a stormer and strikers for both teams look very fragile. Both teams also have showed no attacking quality expected of either.

So far Spain have scored 6 goals in qualifying and France 3. Average for Spain is 2 a game and 1 for France, with them scoring 3 so far.

But really small odds, which I wouldn't have expected.

I think the game will be very tight and with PP, Spain to win by one goal is 23/10.