Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Apologies for the losing Lombard tip. Such a weird fight, not the Lombard we're used to seeing, no real aggression, urgency or desire. I hope this one doesn't put you off in future as it can prove a profitable market over time.

As Vince said, no apologies here.

I am obliged to give you a first warning......

Next apology, straight red.

Keep the tips coming, you have a LONG way to go to catch up the F1 boys.

[MereNovice]

I think I've posted it before but the following link is an excellent accompaniment to watching the GP.

http://www.formula1.com/live_timing/live_timing.html

I think you need to (free) register on the site to access it but it is well worth it.

[tikay]

(sorry 1/5th 1,2,3. That was a missclick - I am aware).
 
 Brandt Snedeker had a bad day yesterday. Perceived wisom was that he would have a bad day. People talked about Ian Baker Finch and Bobby Clampett like it was relevant. It was assumed that when he dopped a shot he would immediately drop ten. At -6 he traded 100/1 at one stage.

 I think he has played really well this week. He has kept it out of the bunkers and hit it low. All that stuff is already factored into the market though. We needn't think about it.

 Lets try and put a place only price on each player...

 Scott....80% chance 1/4...does that sound right?

 McDowell 60% or 4/6 perhaps.

 Woods eves or 50% maybe?

 Els and Johson 3/1 and 7/2

 Olseson 10/1.

 That lot doesn't add up to 250 and there are three places. Either it's 50% that a player outside of these seven gets a place or they are all too big.

 I think Snedeker is less than 2/1 to place. I think if he shoots a score of 69 or lower he will do it and if he shoots 70 or 71 he can do it. 14/5 that this happens seems MASSIVE. I strongly recommend a decent ew bet on Brandt Snedeker at 14/1 with Ladbrokes ew 1/5th 1,2,3.

That's why most of us - or me, for sure - will always be amateur punters, that stuff is such an eye-opener.

Loved it.

[tikay]

Nick Colsaerts - 3G - shot a 65 today! Same as his Round 1 score, in fact.

Shame about the 77 & 72 on Days 2 & 3.

[TightEnd]

The other mclaren podiates. Marvellous.

[MereNovice]

The other mclaren podiates. Marvellous.

Good luck on looking that one up tikay.

[redarmi]

The other mclaren podiates. Marvellous.

I think the correct approach in these spots is just to back them both rather than try to pick.  Obviously lesser stakes but they should both be value so trying ti pick just increases variance.

[TightEnd]

The other mclaren podiates. Marvellous.

I think the correct approach in these spots is just to back them both rather than try to pick.  Obviously lesser stakes but they should both be value so trying ti pick just increases variance.

yup. good reasoning, execution flawed


Meanwhile SA have declared with a 250 lead and 120 overs to bowl them out. Positive stuff

[MereNovice]

The response from PaddyPower to the viewer ratings figure:

The market would be settled on BBC official figures. The BBC would calculate viewer numbers and release their viewer ratings (TAM ratings). Each Terrestrial station releases its own TAM ratings  usually published through the media, for example in the Guardian
 http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/tvratings

[TightEnd]

The F1 bet was an absolute cracker.  Nothing can be done about what happened.  If I could have ten of those bets every day I would be a happy man and the winnning and losing would take care of itself.

I love you.

Now hoping Camel hasn't redded out the lay the draw

[ACE2M]

Murielle Ahoure e/w for 100m at the olympics at 40/1. Strong progression, running better and better times. She prob won't win but she should be 20/1 not 40/1, strong chance for a place imo.

[MereNovice]

Murielle Ahoure e/w for 100m at the olympics at 40/1. Strong progression, running better and better times. She prob won't win but she should be 20/1 not 40/1, strong chance for a place imo.

I'm badly out of touch with athletics.
Anyone else got a view?

[Newportlad]

(sorry 1/5th 1,2,3. That was a missclick - I am aware).
 
 Brandt Snedeker had a bad day yesterday. Perceived wisom was that he would have a bad day. People talked about Ian Baker Finch and Bobby Clampett like it was relevant. It was assumed that when he dopped a shot he would immediately drop ten. At -6 he traded 100/1 at one stage.

 I think he has played really well this week. He has kept it out of the bunkers and hit it low. All that stuff is already factored into the market though. We needn't think about it.

 Lets try and put a place only price on each player...

 Scott....80% chance 1/4...does that sound right?

 McDowell 60% or 4/6 perhaps.

 Woods eves or 50% maybe?

 Els and Johson 3/1 and 7/2

 Olseson 10/1.

 That lot doesn't add up to 250 and there are three places. Either it's 50% that a player outside of these seven gets a place or they are all too big.

 I think Snedeker is less than 2/1 to place. I think if he shoots a score of 69 or lower he will do it and if he shoots 70 or 71 he can do it. 14/5 that this happens seems MASSIVE.

 I strongly recommend a decent ew bet on Brandt Snedeker at 14/1 with Ladbrokes ew 1/5th 1,2,3.

Never in doubt this bet!
Wd Sir

[MereNovice]

Snedeker ties for 3rd for a tiny loss for Fred.
McDowell ties for 5th and Fred just misses.

Well played Ernie Els.

[Bazzaboy]

Sick choke from Scott