Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Jess Ennis @ 16-1 for 100m hurdles? Any value here?

1-2 favourite is Australian, which makes her an insta-lay at that price. Sir Steve said as much, sort of.

Only two people have run faster than Ennis this year.

http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists/inout=o/age=n/season=2012/sex=W/all=n/legal=A/disc=100H/detail.html

Presumably she will be on a sort of adrenelin hangover after the Heppy Heroics.

[Dubai]

Pearson is an absolute shoe in, she would have been 1/4 if she didn't lose the other day

[MereNovice]

Pearson is an absolute shoe in, she would have been 1/4 if she didn't lose the other day

She might hit a hurdle, pull a muscle, false start?

[ACE2M]

Muriel Ahoure makes the 100m final.

As the slowest qualifier. 

We can back her at 150/1 on Betfair.

300/1 now.

she led through 50, i was a bit excited. She faded like a good un after that

i fancy her for RIO

[smashedagain]

My wife told me that ladbrokes have paid out early this week on spoty if you backed wiggins. Did this affect the Fred at all ?

[LeKnave]

Nugent is like twice the price he should be though?

Vardy is probs around the right price or if anything too short.

Sure, 50-1 is silly, if its a real price

It is, we're on.

Nugents Barmy Army!

looks like coral have pulled this now.  think the thread missed it.

[mondatoo]

Assume you missed my Tennis post, good fade, Murray going to get the lot tmoro, LEGOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

[tikay]

Nugent is like twice the price he should be though?

Vardy is probs around the right price or if anything too short.

Sure, 50-1 is silly, if its a real price

It is, we're on.

Nugents Barmy Army!

looks like coral have pulled this now.  think the thread missed it.

Yup, we missed it, sorry Dave, we were all too busy blathering & blubbing about the Olympics!

Find us another 50/1 stone cold certainty, please.

[Doobs]

Assume you missed my Tennis post, good fade, Murray going to get the lot tmoro, LEGOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Had a bet off thread.  Didn't want to push it on here, as this isn't the how good are the olympics thread. 

The crowd is going to carry him to that gold medal.   

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0835, Sunday August 5th

LOSS on Month £13.00

Unsettled Bets £412.50

The spreadsheet is here.....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=11

[tikay]

Daily Report, as @ 08.45, Sunday August 5th

Very quiet day on the betting front, more a day for watching than betting.

We placed a £9 Football Banzai which "got cleared off the line", so that was a close run thing. No cigar though. I think the occasional fun fiver or tenner does no harm.

We also had £5 @ 18/1 on the Swansea City Manager to be the first Premiership Manager to leave his post this coming season, no sooner had we placed it then a Post suggested it was a bad bet. Whoops, goodbye £5.

On the very day of her greatest triumph, we dedided to do some tidying up & LAID Jessica Ennis in SPOTY, £65 @ 5.2. Note we had BACKED Miss Ennis to win SPOTY, £62.50 @ 5/1 in May.

In the Mens 100 metres, we have Gatlin @ 25/1 for a tenner, he qualified yesterday for today's Semi-Finals.

In the Basketball, we are on Brazil for a Medal, & they crushed China yesterday, so we are in good shape, & our Basketball Corry, one J Cake, says he is happy with progress.

We have an interest in the Medals Table too, we need 3rd or better, that is looking better by the day, we are in 3rd place & some way clear of 4th & 5th at present.

In the Boxing, we have Tom Stalker @ 6/1, & he won yesterday, though not convincingly, we gather.

We might yet do nicely out of the Olympics, as we have a few other bets in good shape, too.

In golf, we have small interests (£10 each) in Hunter & Mahan in the Bridgestone Invitational.

They began Day Three 17 & 21 shots behind the leader, & finished the day 16 & 20 shots behind. Progress, then, & if it continued for another 3 weeks, we would have a chance.

http://www.worldgolfchampionships.com/leaderboards/current/r476/index.html

[tikay]

What's coming up?

Olympics, Olympics, & more Olympics, in short.

In Women's Handball, Norway take on Spain @ 7.30pm this evening, both teams currently have 5 points. Details are here....

http://www.london2012.com/handball/event/women/index.html

I don't have dates of when all our other Olympic stuff continues.

The Bridgestone Golf continues. We can safely ignore that one.

In Scottish Premiership Football, Dundee Utd play Hibs today @ 1pm.

In all the euphoria of Gold Medals galore for Team GB yesterday, our Football Team got knocked out of the Olympics by South Korea, on penalties. Coach Stuart Pearce says our team will be better for the experience, & that he was proud of his players.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/19132843

[Simon Galloway]

Thanks Simon.

Talk me through "combinatorics" please......

Damn autocorrect!  Although actually, it wasn't that far off...

Basic volleyball (as per beach version) the setter puts up a straightforward high ball, usually to one of the wings.  Pros:  It is easy, a good setter can do this accurately even from a bad pass into them, timing can be off and it is still ok.  Cons:  It is easy to arrange a 3man block against.

Combination attacks put pressure on the block.  The first attacker (usually the middle hitter) is pretty much already in the air when the setter receives it - the centre blocker has to commit a man to going with that otherwise the setter should give it to the 1st guy to kill.  The 2nd attacker should be going up just as the first guy is coming down, so a fast tempo play.  Usually the 2nd guy will cut inside (ie jump between the first attacker and the setter, although there are countless combinations)  He now has a free hit, unless one of the wing blockers also comes inside to block.  Should that happen, a 3rd attacker can also be going up as the 2nd guy is coming down, ideally via the wing that is now without a blocker.  If the setter is backcourt, he has 3 frontcourt options.  If the setter is backcourt, he only has 2 frontcourt options and needs the 3rd option to come from backcourt.

Pros:  It splits the block and gives you a free hit or 1:1 play.  Even if at a basic combination speed, if the oppo happen to have a lumbering 7'2" centre blocker (as Russia did) then he will struggle to block the centre and cover the distance to block again in the wings. It is easy enough to organise on service reception (the handsignals you see behind the back do this)
Cons:  The play is virtually impossible if the first pass is of poor quality.  It is also a lot harder to organise such a play mid-rally.  The timing has to be a lot snappier and the setter needs to have the awareness to observe which attackers the blockers are going with and choose the right guy to give the ball to.  In the 1st set yesterday, it was my humble opinion that the USA setter got this distribution wrong more than he should have, on top of not running as many combos as he should.

If the setter is front court, the perfect ball in is now above the net, so the setter can jump.  Now a blocker has to keep an eye on the setter too, as the setter can fake the set and tip the ball if no block goes with him.

Not perfect examples, but I looked for some short clips.  Here is a slow tempo high ball.  The block is well organised and the Serbs can't do too much about it.



Now here is a combination play, not the best example, but you get the idea..about 25secs in

[tikay]

Wow, it was worth the fun dig about combinatronics just to get that write-up Simon, brilliant stuff, thanks.

What is the thing with you & Volleyball, how come you know so much, did you play it seriously (don't actually see you as the overly athletic type personally....) or just as enjoy it as a spectator?

I played the game a lot in Africa back in the eighties, the Lebanese seemed to own everyone in Voilleyball back then, though this was just fun stuff on the beach, but from that experience, I got to know many Lebanese, so it was a great eye-opener for me.

I liken it to poker, in a way - no matter how bad you are, it is still playable, & enjoyable.

[tikay]

Please note I will be offline for large parts of today, so if you have any time-precious bets, please stick them up early.

Ta.