Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Defo going, just got to sort out the dates. Will wait and see when Celeb BB finishes before making any final decisions obv.

Think that guy that took all your 861 shifts is going out too, plus a few other shady characters.

How much Oldham did you lay back at 1.2 IR last night for an all-green book?

Not a penny. As I have said before, I still struggle with Betty logic, it reminds me of when I switched from snooker to billiards, I had to forget everything I had learned, all the fundamentals were backwards, instead of avoiding in-offs I had to try & play them. Most peculiar.

I almost Posted a request for help/advice when Oldham went 2 up, or wrote to 'Vice last night, as I sensed it just made sense to green out, but you know how it is, people mock so, & I was a shade embarrassed to ask. Anyway, how could they lose?

Luckily, I won a little back on a Corners Sub Market, so the damage was not too bad in the end, I invested £250 in total & got £220 back.  Damn that Camel chap, he has caused me so much fun.

[Dubai]

This thread already best on blonde by miles, only thing that could improve it would be Tony randomly going off the rails every now again and bets all being maxes

Obviously this one should never be a max as the market has already reacted to the news. If we had been out in a bar and Pietersons agent had drunkenly told us they were dropping him then the idea is we bet the max before anyone else knows

Also like the idea of weekly must place a max bet, monthly a double max

[AceHighSuited]

I am at Ayr today and looking forward to it.  I haven't actually been on track for a while.  I placed 3 bets last nigh, and one I am definitely dining out on value on runs in the opener.  

ALWILDA ran a fairly decent race at Kempton last week finishing 4th on debut.  In doing so it separated a pair of Godolphin horses and finished ahead of a short priced fav.  Sir Mark's horses often get better with experience and I see no reason why it won't win today.  The trainers record up at Ayr is also worth noting.  

With these races, its sometimes difficult to know just where we are on the form lines as there isn't a lot to go on, and the newcomers could be anything.  When I initially looked at the race and priced it up I wen't 8/13 ALWILDA  and the main danger for me was AL THUMAMA if there was any market support but that one is as big as 18/1 in a place.  

My selection can still be backed at 5/6 with Padraig Power.  I would still be happy to back this at 8/13.  

[TightEnd]

This thread already best on blonde by miles, only thing that could improve it would be Tony randomly going off the rails every now again and bets all being maxes

Obviously this one should never be a max as the market has already reacted to the news. If we had been out in a bar and Pietersons agent had drunkenly told us they were dropping him then the idea is we bet the max before anyone else knows

Also like the idea of weekly must place a max bet, monthly a double max

It's not a max on the basis of any inside info! was never claimed to be. I don't think the market has reacted enough, as explained. Clearly its a view though as with all bets, as its theoretically as efficiently priced as everything else

[Dubai]

 In theory I assumed max bets are when we have information that allows us to price a market more accurately than an odds compiler. So if you had been told by the groundsmen that the pitch was really bad because of the archery then we could take a view the draw was too short and fancy SA over England so logically bet the max. As I said that's only my interpretation of the threads idea of a max. My idea is when I just fancy it, like you do here

[TightEnd]

In theory I assumed max bets are when we have information that allows us to price a market more accurately than an odds compiler. So if you had been told by the groundsmen that the pitch was really bad because of the archery then we could take a view was too short and fancy SA over England so logically bet the max. As I said that's only my interpretation of the threads idea of a max. My idea is when I just fancy it, like you do here

ok, understood. Clearly non public info is likely to be the readiest source of being able to put a max on

If thread elder can leave the degenning on Sheffield dogs alone long enough, he can clarify his thoughts on maxes.....

[Dubai]

Yep our leader is needed to clarify. Bingo must be finishing soon so he will be with us shortly...

[tikay]

I hate you all.

[tikay]

This thread already best on blonde by miles, only thing that could improve it would be Tony randomly going off the rails every now again and bets all being maxes

Obviously this one should never be a max as the market has already reacted to the news. If we had been out in a bar and Pietersons agent had drunkenly told us they were dropping him then the idea is we bet the max before anyone else knows

Also like the idea of weekly must place a max bet, monthly a double max

Me too, but how would we decide which is to be the Maxy? Anyone can put it up, but get an Elder to make a judgement call?

It really is no good asking me to decide, I don't have a clue, I know less than Chompy.

Tighty's Cricket bet is a great example, I just sensed, because he is a life nit, & ultra-cautious in these matters, that it was worth a punt, & Fred has perhaps been a shade overly nitty since I returned from Vegas, I feel. I had no other maths or logical reasoning.

Give me some means or views on how or if we should have a scheduled Weekly Max, or Monthly 2xMax.

One area that MIGHT work is on, say, Football, when the markets are first priced up, we have often done well with those, & of course we have a bit of time to have some blather amongst ourselves to decide.

Am trying vey hard to stay on the rails, but it gets tougher by the day. I blame Hawkins entirely. I had THREE different bets on some obscure football match last night, & was sat there F5-ing some stats page to keep track of things. Until February this year, I had not had a single bet since the very day I begun playing poker.  Damn you all.

Luckily, I am not addicted yet, or descended into daft Big Brother-type bets.

PS - Miss China is nailed on for Miss World this week, with Miss Jamaica & Miss Philippines for the Tri-Cast. 

[tikay]

I am at Ayr today and looking forward to it.  I haven't actually been on track for a while.  I placed 3 bets last nigh, and one I am definitely dining out on value on runs in the opener.  

ALWILDA ran a fairly decent race at Kempton last week finishing 4th on debut.  In doing so it separated a pair of Godolphin horses and finished ahead of a short priced fav.  Sir Mark's horses often get better with experience and I see no reason why it won't win today.  The trainers record up at Ayr is also worth noting.  

With these races, its sometimes difficult to know just where we are on the form lines as there isn't a lot to go on, and the newcomers could be anything.  When I initially looked at the race and priced it up I wen't 8/13 ALWILDA  and the main danger for me was AL THUMAMA if there was any market support but that one is as big as 18/1 in a place.  

My selection can still be backed at 5/6 with Padraig Power.  I would still be happy to back this at 8/13.  

Good afternoon Mr AceHigh.

You are the chap who works for a Bookie who monitors this thread, yes? Guess he has not gone skint yet......

Anyway, as a welcome back gift, we are on that nag.

I missed the 5/6, but you said you'd be happy at 8/13, so I have taken 8/11, to £55, with Mr Coral.

PS - Have a grand day at Ayr, I have not been there for many years, last time was to watch the Scottish Grand National, when Ken Oliver's "Fighting Fit" won, must be nearly 30 years ago.

ON
 Single(s) - Win Receipt No.: 31273366 
2:20 Ayr - Win or Each Way (Day of Race) 
Alwilda @ 8/11 
 
Stake: £55.00 (£55.00 x 1 line) 
Estimated Returns: £ 95.15 

[tikay]

Yep our leader is needed to clarify. Bingo must be finishing soon so he will be with us shortly...

Bingo, never, thats for old peeps.

I don't know, you tell me how you think we should define a Max?

If it were left to me, I'd get an Actuary or Risk Assessor to run the rule over it, can't be too careful, but we actually have a regular Actuary who is a Fred regular, & he told us to bet our boots on Chelsea to beat Barcelona in the CL semis, so he obviously does not have a clue.

[Eso Kral]

Ok I have not posted a tip on here for a while but am currently 2-2 in the Winners column as I am sure Mere will confirm.

I am recommending a LAY (Mere will help) of CHELSEA in there first game of the season vs Wigan away on Sunday and recommend a lay at 1.57 on Betfair for £100 meaning your liability is £57.

The reason I have posted is that having looked at the stats of English winning Champions League sides, the last 7 have failed to win their first game of the following season with the following results

Nottingham Forest 1st game 1980/81  LOST 2-0
Liverpool 81/82  Lost 1-0
Aston Villa 82/83 Lost 3-1
Liverpool 84/85  Draw 3-3
Man Utd 99/2000 Draw 1-1
Liverpool 05/06 Draw 0-0
Man Utd 08/09 Draw 1-1   all results from statto.com
Chelsea 12/13 ? ? ?

As you will see there are some decent sides in there and a mixture of home/away games and yes the knockers will say that the Chelsea team maybe dont know the stats and stats are there to be broken but will season 2012/13 be any different?

Flame Away!!

[tikay]

Ok I have not posted a tip on here for a while but am currently 2-2 in the Winners column as I am sure Mere will confirm.

I am recommending a LAY (Mere will help) of CHELSEA in there first game of the season vs Wigan away on Sunday and recommend a lay at 1.57 on Betfair for £100 meaning your liability is £57.

The reason I have posted is that having looked at the stats of English winning Champions League sides, the last 7 have failed to win their first game of the following season with the following results

Nottingham Forest 1st game 1980/81  LOST 2-0
Liverpool 81/82  Lost 1-0
Aston Villa 82/83 Lost 3-1
Liverpool 84/85  Draw 3-3
Man Utd 99/2000 Draw 1-1
Liverpool 05/06 Draw 0-0
Man Utd 08/09 Draw 1-1   all results from statto.com
Chelsea 12/13 ? ? ?

As you will see there are some decent sides in there and a mixture of home/away games and yes the knockers will say that the Chelsea team maybe dont know the stats and stats are there to be broken but will season 2012/13 be any different?

Flame Away!!

Mr B!

Welcome back after a long absence, & I like the way you have set that out. I'm a sucker for Presentation.

How did you suss that one out?

Does look interesting.

I might just be able to manage to click those buttons myself, but I just need a brief period of ditherage first.

[TheDazzler]

Ok I have not posted a tip on here for a while but am currently 2-2 in the Winners column as I am sure Mere will confirm.

I am recommending a LAY (Mere will help) of CHELSEA in there first game of the season vs Wigan away on Sunday and recommend a lay at 1.57 on Betfair for £100 meaning your liability is £57.

The reason I have posted is that having looked at the stats of English winning Champions League sides, the last 7 have failed to win their first game of the following season with the following results

Nottingham Forest 1st game 1980/81  LOST 2-0
Liverpool 81/82  Lost 1-0
Aston Villa 82/83 Lost 3-1
Liverpool 84/85  Draw 3-3
Man Utd 99/2000 Draw 1-1
Liverpool 05/06 Draw 0-0
Man Utd 08/09 Draw 1-1   all results from statto.com
Chelsea 12/13 ? ? ?

As you will see there are some decent sides in there and a mixture of home/away games and yes the knockers will say that the Chelsea team maybe dont know the stats and stats are there to be broken but will season 2012/13 be any different?

Flame Away!!

I'm not saying the bet is bad but I just think that you're looking at a long running statistical coincidence/abnormality. Unless you think there is a realistic connection between winning the Champions League and starting the league slowly (specifically the 1st game), which I can't see?

[Eso Kral]

How did you suss that one out?


[/quote]

I heard it a few weeks ago and forgot completely about it till today and then did a bit of research and BINGO!