Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Hi there, As stated previously, I am a lurker on this thread purely because I am a 'mug punter' and want to change that. Therefore I can offer little in the way of tips with any sound footing, other than those around Southend United.

The Southend United is Paul Sturrock, who in League 2, (wrongly) believes the only way out of the division is to utilise direct play to a lump up front, none of this short passes malarkey. At this current moment, the two players who play this role, are injured. After Saturdays game against Northampton, Paul Sturrock said the following:-

You have to have a target-man if you want to do well in this league,” said Sturrock.

“You saw that when Ryan went up there and also when Akinfenwa came on for Northampton.

“We don't have that type of striker available at the moment and we have to have one if we are to challenge this year

Sturrock has tried to sign a target man this week, to no avail. (No funds and possible transfer embargo currently). Therefore, the man who robbed you lot on Saturday of a Northampton win, will in my opinion start up front this Saturday. He is a centre back called Ryan Cresswell. This is by all means a guess, but Sturrock has previous for this kind of thing

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/southend-v-wycombe/first-goalscorer

I suggest a cheeky £5 on say first goalscorer and last goalscorer, as the bookies have him down as 'centre back odds', and even if he doesn't start up front, he is good at set pieces, and will get pushed up front at the dying stages of a game if a goal is needed.....

Good stuff - I like the look of this.

[TightEnd]

Raikkonen plays it cool, but feels Lotus will shine at Spa http://goo.gl/fb/XHlCg

[Killerkilsby]

For those who back to lay and dont mind waiting 8 months, Wigan at 10/1 bet victor top 10, can be layed on betfair at 8/1.

Cant see why this isnt a nice little profit maker for someone?!

Also swansea top 4 is 125/1 betvictor

Lay on betfair at 45

[Tonji]

Rodruigez wins a killer stage head to head with Contador, beating him by 7 seconds. Froome starting to wilt.

Now leading overall by 13 seconds.

Exciting stuff!

[Rubbish2407]

Imagine this scenario. Arsenal release or have unavailable their entire starting XI and are playing a decent mid table team with a solid vociferous support, say Swansea. You can get 5/4 for the home team to beat a bunch of journeymen and unproven youngsters. Throw into the mix Arsene Wenger has gone and a new coach who has, at best, flattered to deceive is in charge. Do you take it?

Cardiff Blues XV

                                  Ben Blair
Leigh Halfpenny                                           Alex Cuthbert
                      Jamie Roberts    Casey Lua Lua
                          Dan Parks         Richie Rees

      Sam Warburton      Xavier Rush    Maama Molitika
                      Bradley Davies      Paul Tito
          Gethin Jenkins   Rhys Thomas   Paul Yapp

That's just about last seasons starting XV and none of them will be playing on Saturday due to retiring, forced rest (International requirement???) or transferred out.

In their place are 19 players (out of a squad of 44) who have all played less than ten times at this level.

They travel to Connacht who in fairness are the smallest and weakest of the four Irish provinces. That said, they wont play against a much weaker team than the XV the Blues are likely to start with. In actual fact I couldn't even hazard a guess to what the starting XV is likely to be.

The Blues have lost friendlies against Bath, Worcester and Gloucester although they did beat the Cheetahs out in South Africa. Go figure?

Connacht have had two friendlies, beating Essex and getting thumped by Quins. They did rest a lot of players for that one though and Elwood, their coach, has made a plea to Declan Kidney to let his Internationals start on Saturday. I'm unsure if they will or not.

I think the current 5/4 on Connacht is quite juicy and I have had £100 myself. Any views from any Rugby buffs?

[Rubbish2407]

You can get 11/8 on Boyles sports.

[tikay]

I want to avoid the mayhem of Tuesday, when there were suggestions galore, (11 matches) & I struggled to assimilate them all in time, so I'm going to try bringing some order to the chaos for weekend recommends.

I'll list the suggested games, enbolden the selection, quote the suggested price, & name the author. I'll add & update it as we go along.

What we need is your views, please, on each one, & then we can make or decision.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Newcastle v Aston Villa @ 4/6, Fraser. Currently negative, view being the price is about right.  

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/newcastle-v-aston-villa/winner

 
____________________________

Ipswich v Huddersfield, @ 5/2 (11/4 now), Dung. Several positive comments.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/ipswich-v-huddersfield/winner


__________________________

Port Vale v Torquay @ 9/4, Dung.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/port-vale-v-torquay/winner


_______________________

If I have forgotten any, please remind me.

[tikay]

Hi there, As stated previously, I am a lurker on this thread purely because I am a 'mug punter' and want to change that. Therefore I can offer little in the way of tips with any sound footing, other than those around Southend United.

The Southend United is Paul Sturrock, who in League 2, (wrongly) believes the only way out of the division is to utilise direct play to a lump up front, none of this short passes malarkey. At this current moment, the two players who play this role, are injured. After Saturdays game against Northampton, Paul Sturrock said the following:-

You have to have a target-man if you want to do well in this league,” said Sturrock.

“You saw that when Ryan went up there and also when Akinfenwa came on for Northampton.

“We don't have that type of striker available at the moment and we have to have one if we are to challenge this year

Sturrock has tried to sign a target man this week, to no avail. (No funds and possible transfer embargo currently). Therefore, the man who robbed you lot on Saturday of a Northampton win, will in my opinion start up front this Saturday. He is a centre back called Ryan Cresswell. This is by all means a guess, but Sturrock has previous for this kind of thing

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/southend-v-wycombe/first-goalscorer

I suggest a cheeky £5 on say first goalscorer and last goalscorer, as the bookies have him down as 'centre back odds', and even if he doesn't start up front, he is good at set pieces, and will get pushed up front at the dying stages of a game if a goal is needed.....

Thanks Class.

cheeky?......hmm. Like everything except cheeky........

Few recommends have been better or more widely received, so we will get on.

The problem is that I missed the market (I was indisposed this afternoon....), & Fred Wisdom is that if we miss the price, we are supposed to bet less. Set against that, everyone wants us to bet it bigger.

I'm also not sure how to correlate the three availble markets - first, last, & anytime.

So, for now, I've gone for "First" & "Anytime". Happy to add "Last" if it is thought wise.

We have £20 @ 25/1 with Corals, Ryan Cresswell FIRST GS, Southend v Wycombe.

And £20 @ 17/2 with Paddy Power ANYTIME goalscorer, same game.

ON


Single(s) - Win Receipt No.: 31968733 
Southend v Wycombe - First Goal Scorer 
Ryan Cresswell (Southend) @ 25/1 
 
Stake: £20.00 (£20.00 x 1 line) 
Estimated Returns: £ 520.00 

__________________

Npower League 2 Matches Southend v Wycombe
01-09-2012 15:00
Anytime Goalscorer
Ryan Cresswell @ 17/2
 
Total stake: £20.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £20.00

[tikay]

Imagine this scenario. Arsenal release or have unavailable their entire starting XI and are playing a decent mid table team with a solid vociferous support, say Swansea. You can get 5/4 for the home team to beat a bunch of journeymen and unproven youngsters. Throw into the mix Arsene Wenger has gone and a new coach who has, at best, flattered to deceive is in charge. Do you take it?

Cardiff Blues XV

                                  Ben Blair
Leigh Halfpenny                                           Alex Cuthbert
                      Jamie Roberts    Casey Lua Lua
                          Dan Parks         Richie Rees

      Sam Warburton      Xavier Rush    Maama Molitika
                      Bradley Davies      Paul Tito
          Gethin Jenkins   Rhys Thomas   Paul Yapp

That's just about last seasons starting XV and none of them will be playing on Saturday due to retiring, forced rest (International requirement???) or transferred out.

In their place are 19 players (out of a squad of 44) who have all played less than ten times at this level.

They travel to Connacht who in fairness are the smallest and weakest of the four Irish provinces. That said, they wont play against a much weaker team than the XV the Blues are likely to start with. In actual fact I couldn't even hazard a guess to what the starting XV is likely to be.

The Blues have lost friendlies against Bath, Worcester and Gloucester although they did beat the Cheetahs out in South Africa. Go figure?

Connacht have had two friendlies, beating Essex and getting thumped by Quins. They did rest a lot of players for that one though and Elwood, their coach, has made a plea to Declan Kidney to let his Internationals start on Saturday. I'm unsure if they will or not.

I think the current 5/4 on Connacht is quite juicy and I have had £100 myself. Any views from any Rugby buffs?

Thanks Rubbish.

After some delving, I took this to be Rugby Union, upon further delving & I discovered this was RaboDirectPro12. (The WHAT?).

I've gone for this, it looks worth a bet, though I know not the first thing about RU, but your logic & back-up reasoning seems sound. If we have any Rugby Buffs who "like", we may bet more. If they don't like, too bad, we've had a gamble......

We have £40 with Boylesports @ 11/8, Connacht to beat Cardiff, RaboDirectPro12.  

ON

Connacht @ 11/8
Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues
Match Betting
Total stake £ 40.00  
Estimated return £ 95.00


Bet ref: 24/24 Connacht @ 11/8
Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues
Match Betting
Total stake £40.00
Estimated return £95.00

[tikay]

Golf The Deutsche Bank Championship.

Let me start by saying that I have already placed my bets so there is no danger of the Tikay plunge stealing my price again.

For a couple of months I have been following a certain golfer who always seemed to play well in the 1st round on courses where there were birdies to be had. 2 weeks ago he came good for me when he shot 8 under in the first round and landed me odds of 25-1. This is a far harder field than that but he is available at 60-1 and crucially he has an early start time.

So C Petterson 1st round leader £5 e/w 60-1 @ Stan James pays 1/4 first 5.

As far as the outright market is concerned my choice is one we had last week when he came a decent 10th, so he is in form. It is an easy course so a winning score of about 14 under is to be expected so we are not looking for grinders.

So £5 win Bubba Watson @ 33-1 Ladbrokes. That is a whimsical fiver Mr Tikay.

I have also gone for J Duffner and B Snedeker which you may choose to include if you wish, but it would be nice if some others had a go.

I have been showering 2 or 3 times a day this week trying to achieve another epiphany but sadly to no avail. However on the plus side my skin does feels all tingly.

Thank you hector. No ephinany? Shower more please.

I hope our good friend Miss Karma continues to look after us.

4 lovely little Banzais for a total of £25, whats not to like?

We are on the lot.

Deitsche Bank Golf....

£5 EW @ 60/1, Corals, (qtr odds 1,2,3,4,5), Pettersen, First Round Leader.

£5 Win @ 25/1, Paddy Power, Bubba Watson

£5 win @ 25/1, Paddy Power, Snedeker

£5 win @ 20/1, Paddy Power, Dufner. 

ON

£5.00 EW Single
  Selection Price
Deutsche Bank Championship Who Will Lead After The 1st Rnd? : Who Will Lead After The 1st Rnd?
EW: 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 Pettersson, Carl 60/1
Total stake £10.00
Estimated return £385.00


___________________


Single: Watson, Bubba @ 25/1
1 line at £5.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £5.00
Potential returns: £130.00
No: O/23146337/0000102

 
Win
Single: Snedeker, Brandt @ 25/1
1 line at £5.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £5.00
Potential returns: £130.00
No: O/23146337/0000103

 
Win
Single: Dufner, Jason @ 20/1
1 line at £5.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £5.00
Potential returns: £105.00
No: O/23146337/0000104

 

[tikay]

Click to see full-size image.

Here we can see certain market inequalities. Using Aston Villa as an example, we can see they are seen as 12th most likely team for a top 10 finish, but 5th favourites to get relegated. I suspect one of these prices is wrong, Sporting Index offer 41-42.5 on Villas points, making them 6th favourite to go down, with West Ham, Wigan, Reading, Norwich and Southampton below them. This leaves me to believe the price for Villa top 10 is way out of line. But, we cannot lay them at this price, so we must look for other prices that are inefficient in the market. Wigan are projected 38.5-40 points by Sporting Index, just a 2.5 points below. However, they are priced up at 10/1 by Betvictor. This price is clearly out of line, Southampton priced 5 points lower by Spin are 14/1 top 10, and West Ham priced 1.5 points higher are 13/2 best price.

Wigan top 10 finish- Betvictor 10/1 Max bet

Everton are always there or there abouts. In the market w/o the big 6, i would like to propose Everton @ 6/4. Newcastle are typically overrated by the market, having seen them outperform the form book last year. If they lose a few players Everton will be odds on. I also like the look of Sunderland 14/1 e/w 1/5 top 3, but would like more thoughts on this. Not as confident here.

Thanks.

I'm not quite sure what to do with this, if anything. I have so far shied away from "season" bets.

Umm, help?

[hector62]

I like the rugby union bet as I never bet against an Irish provincial team when they are playing at home. Too early in the season for a big bet on them. Pray for wind and rain! When is the eta for Hurricane Isaac?

[smashedagain]

This thread has me scanning sky sports for golfers and footballers I have never heard of and funking for teams I have no allegiance too. Who ever knew there was a bike race other than the tour de France?

I never back anything but still get a lot of enjoyment Ty .

[rfgqqabc]

Not sure if this is the correct place to post but it kind of works here. The Champions League draw was tonight, and a group of death appeared, with Man. City, Real Madrid, Dortmund and Ajax. City have moved from to 10s but Madrid from 7/2 to 4/1. Man Us move from 12s to also seems pretty large, esp with how the seeding worked. Did Fred get on PSG, who were touted months ago @ 28/1?

With regards to the Wigan bet, I'd have £20 on and top up if others agree. The other selections were merely food for thought, I'm not confident enough to say whats value, just trying to guide the shrewdies in the right direction.