Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Venus couldn't quite get it done against Kerber so you can chalk that one up as a loser.

She went down fighting, Vince, a fine effort.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0720, Friday August 31st

PROFIT on Month £678.50

Unsettled Bets  - £479.50

The spreadsheet is here...


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=11

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0745, Friday August 31st

A loss of £20 yesterday.

Only one bet completed, being the Venus Williams Super Banzai (£20 @ 69/1), so no great surprise.

We were busy with weekend bets though, & placed no less than 10 new ones, mostly quite small, & all of which complete between now & Monday, for a total spend of around £165.

We had £20 on the Omega Masters golf (1 bet), £25 on the Deutsche Bank Golf (4 bets), £40 Ryan Cresswell to score for Southend this weekend (2 bets), a Rugby Union bet (£40) in Ireland, a Goalscorer bet (£25) in the Chelsea Atletico Madrid Super Cup tonight, & we made yet another attempt to get a winning F1 bet (£15) by investing in Raikkonen.  

The Ryan Cresswell, bet came from "class", his first Fred Tip, so special good luck to him.

So thats £165 invested for the weekend on 4 different Sports in 6 different Events, that should keep us interested, & maybe get us off to a winning start in September.

In Cycling, our man is still leading, 13 seconds ahead of Contador, & 51 seconds ahead of Froome. We are getting tremendous value with this (£10 @ 14/1), our man has been there or thereabouts since the off. I have no idea when it finishes though, maybe another week?

http://www.lavuelta.com/

Our US Open Tennis interest ended for now when Venus Williams lost in three sets, the final set being 7-5. (£20).  

In the Omega Golf, our chap (Brandon Grace) fell victim to a bad tee-time & got very much the worst of the weather yesterday. He carded 1 under, with the leader at 8 under, & the pack all closely bunched at 4, 5,  & 6 under. He tees off at 1pm today, & if he gets the flip side of the weather, he still has a chance. (£10 EW @ 50/1).

 http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2012/tournamentid=2012064/leaderboard/index.html

A number of weekend football bets have been Posted, for which comment is still needed.

[tikay]

Whats coming up?

The Cycling continues, as does the Omega Golf from a really picture-postcard course in Switzerland, whilst in the USA, the Deutsche Bank Golf starts tonight, televised @ 8pm on Sky Sports, so that is three interests we have today.

Cricket.

The third game of the 5 match ODI series between England & South Africa is today, from the Oval, which is a proper ground, unlike that Southampton thing. On the evidence of the previous ODI, & the final "proper" Test, South Africa seem to be pretty good value @ 8/11, though I am just whistling in the dark really, but our Cricket Corry's may have a view on that.

The weather in London is fine & bright, very cold right now, but high temperatures & cloudless skies are promised for this afternoon. 

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-south-africa/england-v-south-africa-odis/england-v-south-africa-[3rd-odi]/winner

Football

The so-called "Super-Cup" takes place tonight, from Monaco, Chelsea v Atletico Madrid, where John Terry will be absent from the game, but is expected to be fit enough appear on the pitch in full playing kit if Chelsea win. Fred is quietly pleased at his absence, as we are on the wonder Colombian goalscoring machine, Falcoa, not that Terry could have coped with his blinding speed. Give this kid an inch, & the ball will be in the net, from seemingly impossible angles. He's quite something.

Click to see full-size image.

F1

The F1 weekend from Spa commences its preliminaries today (we are on Raikkonen), this track is breathtakingly scary. From Turns 1 to 5 inclusive, including Eau Rouge, they are full throttle for no less than 23 seconds, longer than any other F1 track. That's quite something in the dry, but in the wet, look away.

Click to see full-size image.

Here's Schuey, in the wet @ Eau Rouge, this weekend will be, amazingly, his 300th F1 Grand Prix. Don't like the fella, but that's some record.

Click to see full-size image.

He actually made his debut here, for Jordan, in 1991, when he retired on the first lap. He got the drive in very odd circumstances, too, when Jordan-contracted driver Bertrand Gachot got sent to prison after spraying a taxi-driver with CS gas in London after a bit of road rage.

Click to see full-size image.

He is a master in the wet, mind, & is said to have won 17 of the 30 "wet races" he has contested, & never gets a wheel out of line. Except when it comes off.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Newcastle v Aston Villa @ 4/6, Fraser. Currently negative, view being the price is about right.  

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/newcastle-v-aston-villa/winner

 
____________________________

Ipswich v Huddersfield, @ 5/2 (11/4 now), Dung. Several positive comments.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/ipswich-v-huddersfield/winner


__________________________

Port Vale v Torquay @ 9/4, Dung.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/port-vale-v-torquay/winner


_______________________

If I have forgotten any, please remind me.

Reminder, guys, some feedback on these would be helpful.

Thanks.

[tikay]

Just going back to the debate we had in midweek about bets, "value", & the efficiency of the markets in Premiership Football.

Someone posted that they deduced from the debate that we would therefore NEVER have a MAXIMUM bet on a Premiership football match.

That is incorrect.

We won't have many, that is true, because in most instances, the price is deemed to be right. And we don't want to bet Max when the price is right - we want Max when the price is wrong, which is admittedly rare. 

And it does happen from time to time, we just need to be patient, & wait.

The best example of this was Swansea v Blackburn, back in April.

Camel noted that the price (early in the week) was about 11/10, when 4/5 was the correct price.

We lumped the then MAX bet on, £100.

Redarmi then reinforced how wrong the price was, mathematically, so we did a silly thing, & broke every rule of the bankroll, & had a DOUBLE MAX.

The bet won, easily.

These opportunities WILL occur. Very rarely, but they DO happen. We just need to be patient.

I think one of the great lessons of the thread - for me - is that we are not that fussed in betting something where the price is right - we want the price to be wrong.

I spent 30 years punting stuff where the price was right, & don't even dare to think how much money I set fire to. Now we try to bet where the price is wrong. Big difference.

[Tonji]

Some behind the scenes at the Vuelta with Orica-GreenEdge, an Aussie racing team full of characters

[DungBeetle]

I know there are a few Leicester lads on here - are Blackpool any value at 12/5 to win at the Walkers stadium in the Saturday evening kickoff?  Blackpool are obviously 100% so far and have been really strong - which has me reaching for the lifeboats shortly as I sold their total season points at 69

I saw Leicester have lost 2 away games on a bounce, but I hear they have been unlucky by all accounts in both games, especially at Blackburn?

This is not a recommendation as such - just putting one out there for people who may have actually seen the teams in action to comment.

Dung

[smashedagain]

Why the hate dis like for Shuey please sir. ( hope you are not turning into the camel ).

In my professional opinion you have to back Torquay. Don't pass up the chance to get a celebratory kiss off Helen Chamberlain in the next studio.

[tikay]

Why the hate dis like for Shuey please sir. ( hope you are not turning into the camel ).

In my professional opinion you have to back Torquay. Don't pass up the chance to get a celebratory kiss off Helen Chamberlain in the next studio.

Glad you changed it from "hate" to "dislike". I don't think I hate anyone, I leave hate to the haters.

Even "dislike" is wrong, but I said that, I just expressed myself badly. I just find him very bland, & "Corporate", with little personality, in much the same way as Lewis Hamilton completely turns me off. Hard to explain what I mean, but think Phil Taylor at darts, who has a much more rounded personality, despite being head & shoulders better than everyone else.

To be fair, I did also big up Schuey - there is no doubt that he was the best driver of his generation, & by a very long way. But as a personality, as to charisma, & that special presence, he could not hold a light to Senna, or Jim Clark.

A kiss from Helen? No prob there, we have a little hug in the canteen most weeks, she is abso lovely. She is here today, in fact. Ooohhhhh

[Acidmouse]

I know there are a few Leicester lads on here - are Blackpool any value at 12/5 to win at the Walkers stadium in the Saturday evening kickoff?  Blackpool are obviously 100% so far and have been really strong - which has me reaching for the lifeboats shortly as I sold their total season points at 69

I saw Leicester have lost 2 away games on a bounce, but I hear they have been unlucky by all accounts in both games, especially at Blackburn?

This is not a recommendation as such - just putting one out there for people who may have actually seen the teams in action to comment.

Dung

Blackpool pretty much mullered Leeds, and the 2-1 was generous to Leeds it is our only loss in 4 games..Saying that I watched Leicester be really unlucky at Charlton in the 2nd half last week, so I would guess a pretty even game, 12/5 aint bad tbh

[tikay]

I know there are a few Leicester lads on here - are Blackpool any value at 12/5 to win at the Walkers stadium in the Saturday evening kickoff?  Blackpool are obviously 100% so far and have been really strong - which has me reaching for the lifeboats shortly as I sold their total season points at 69

I saw Leicester have lost 2 away games on a bounce, but I hear they have been unlucky by all accounts in both games, especially at Blackburn?

This is not a recommendation as such - just putting one out there for people who may have actually seen the teams in action to comment.

Dung

12/5? Must be said, Blackpool have been very impressive so far. I would have thought 12/5 was quite generous.

[DungBeetle]

Looking at the comparable away teams I'd rather be on Blackpool at 12/5 than:

Bolton (7/4) at Hull
Blackburn (2/1) at Leeds
Wolves (5/2) at Cardiff
Boro (15/8) at Millwall

[horseplayer]

certainly seems at the very worse a sporting bet

i presume pearson is starting to become under a bit of pressure?

[DungBeetle]

Think they'll give Pearson a while if the performances have been as encouraging as reports suggest.  But might be a bit ratty in the Pearson household if they are 3 points from 12 going into the International break.