Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Thanks Vince.

On that basis, Fred would be like Zed. Dead.

[bobby1]

Thanks Vince.

On that basis, Fred would be like Zed. Dead.

Zed's dead?

Maybe he should have taken the path of the righteous man.

[TightEnd]

Just as a measure of what a lottery F1 is this season

McLaren come to Spa with a new rear wing and the old wing

They can't test it yesterday in the torrential rain

Button decides to try it today, nothing to lose

Hamilton has more to lose, can't take the risk that its slower


Button screams to pole

Hamilton loses 0.4 seconds every straight to the new wing, qualifies 8th

Betting markets cavort 180 degrees in the 10 minutes of final qualifying

Hamilton goes from 2-1 favourite at 12.59pm to 10-1 now

Button 12-1 to 15/8 in the same time frame

http://www.oddschecker.com/motor-sport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/winner

Raikkonen I think is the second quickest car on the track, possibly the quickest later in the race if the tyres on the McLaren struggle compared to Renault as has been the case all season

I think I propose officially retiring F1 from eligible sports to be, though, it addles the mind....

[Nico29]

I've been looking for an angle in the Man City&QPR match which is a 530pm kick of.

After watching the first two games of the season I'd like to oppose QPR in some way until all the new signings have gelled and they learn to defend better as a team.

I felt for Norwich last week feeling they were most unlucky not to take all 3 points, but whether or not that was due to the home side playing well or the hoops appearing woeful is debatable.

Norwich created numerous chances, and possibly were on the wrong side of a decision or two whilst obviously the first week's demolition by Swansea didn't do wonders for QPR'S confidence either.

They have been seemingly desperate to recruit a quality centre half but haven't. Two games played and there have been 7 goals in their games. Last season's finale was a totally different scenario but both games finished 3-2 to Man City in 2011/2012.

Man City defensively haven't convinced themselves either so far, with Mancini supposedly unsure whether to go with 2/3 centre backs and there's uncertainty about the full backs. In addition Toure hasn't looked his old self for yonks yet Lescott was benched last week. They've let in 4 scoring 5 themselves leading to 9 goals in their two games so far.

Obviously this is the smallest of sample sizes and thus a pinch of salt should be taken from these goal 'stats'.

However, everything does seem to indicate goals in this match, Tevez is firing again, Cisse often scores or gets sent off-which could lead to the alamo and right now most of the QPR backline don't seem confident enough to hold out against the champs inevitable flurry upon flurry on goal. Man City also look a little fragile at the back.

It all leads me to believe that the overs market should be looked into and I expected to see the over 3.5 market perhaps a slight favourite to the unders, maybe a 5/6-10//11 shot.

Instead we can get 11/10 with ladbrokes +3.5 goals and that seems very fair to me. Most firms are around evens.

I've also played on the +4.5 goal market with Sportingbet@12/5 for a smaller amount and have done a few banzai jobbers on the higher goal totals for relative pennies.

My recomended bet is +3.5 goals in the Man City QPR match @11/10 with ladbrokes-it's found under handicaps and the goal line market.

I believe it's a fair value bet perhaps worthy a nifty.

[Tal]

Norwich played brilliantly against us at WHL last year and won. 9/1 is an absurd price, even though I don't think they'll win today. I appreciate that they don't look the same side and we will of course be out for a bit of revenge, but backing spurs seems to offer no value at all.

[AceHighSuited]

Mr Mere.

I think my request will be too much of a pain but maybe your spreadsheet can more easily do it than my calculator. Someone made a comment the other day about bet sizing and how they felt they should be bigger. As a self proclaimed nit and definitely one of the smallest bet sizers I was interested in this. I decided to see how we would have done if all the bets were for £100. I managed to do it for the first month and was shocked by the result, and by how long it took me to do.

If anyone is interested then for the month of February where we made a profit of £120, if all bets had been £100 then we would have lost over £1,700. Do not worry if it would take you too long as life is too short etc.

By my figures, level stakes of £100 would have produced the following profits/losses:

Feb   94.27
Mar   1001.70
Apr   1088.72
May   -3206.39
Jun   -1410.69
Jul   -426.08
Aug   -433.51

Total:  -3291.98

I'm happy to be corrected.

It was me that raised the point regards bet sizes.  I never suggested betting everything to a £100 point.  

I was suggesting that there would have been a better return had those those who were making selections had to coin a phrase bigger balls and suggested the bet size was realistic in terms of the odds then the book would look even healthier.

It was not my intention to belittle anyone, I think many people look at the money as if it belongs to them and not Tikay.  Again no offence meant but this was seen clearly when Mere was in the driving seat.  He curtailed the exposure slightly because it wasn't his own money.  I understand you don't want to lose money for other people but we are all adults.  If your putting up a rec then either put up a sum considerable to the roll or leave the bet sizing to Tikay.  

Perhaps using the "elders" as Tony often refers to them as the deciding ones on bet sizing?

[OverTheBorder]

Norwich played brilliantly against us at WHL last year and won. 9/1 is an absurd price, even though I don't think they'll win today. I appreciate that they don't look the same side and we will of course be out for a bit of revenge, but backing spurs seems to offer no value at all.

Hills go 5/6 on Tottenham not to win by 3 or more...I thought that was absurdly good price, cant odds check to see if its competitive, cant see that Spurs team beating anyone by 3 until things calm down a bit

[The Camel]

Swansea seem like a really good lay at 2.06 to me.

[Tal]

Norwich played brilliantly against us at WHL last year and won. 9/1 is an absurd price, even though I don't think they'll win today. I appreciate that they don't look the same side and we will of course be out for a bit of revenge, but backing spurs seems to offer no value at all.

Hills go 5/6 on Tottenham not to win by 3 or more...I thought that was absurdly good price, cant odds check to see if its competitive, cant see that Spurs team beating anyone by 3 until things calm down a bit

That is a good price. Completely agree

[claypole]

I don't like alot in the football today.

I think AFC Wimbledon are value at 17/10 against Dag & Red.

AFC Wimbledon have been poor away from home but a different story at home.

Dag & Red have scored one goal in their last 4 games.

Get other views - I'd recommend £25 at 17/10 - it should be shorter for me.

AFC Wimbledon are terrible. I have opposed them every game this year based on a very poor pre-season as advised by, I think, from a twitter post from the genius (lol) that is Brent Horner - if it wasn't Brent it was someone else shrewd.

They may we well do a win, however for me that games is a clear no bet until they show some form

[Nico29]

Norwich played brilliantly against us at WHL last year and won. 9/1 is an absurd price, even though I don't think they'll win today. I appreciate that they don't look the same side and we will of course be out for a bit of revenge, but backing spurs seems to offer no value at all.

Hills go 5/6 on Tottenham not to win by 3 or more...I thought that was absurdly good price, cant odds check to see if its competitive, cant see that Spurs team beating anyone by 3 until things calm down a bit

This can't be right, Norwich are 2/9 with hills with a 3 goal handicap, can't find this anywhere. Would be a bet of the year.

Best price I can see with Norwich receiving a 3 goal head start I could find ws 4/11 with Betvictor.

[OverTheBorder]

Norwich played brilliantly against us at WHL last year and won. 9/1 is an absurd price, even though I don't think they'll win today. I appreciate that they don't look the same side and we will of course be out for a bit of revenge, but backing spurs seems to offer no value at all.

Hills go 5/6 on Tottenham not to win by 3 or more...I thought that was absurdly good price, cant odds check to see if its competitive, cant see that Spurs team beating anyone by 3 until things calm down a bit

This can't be right, Norwich are 2/9 with hills with a 3 goal handicap, can't find this anywhere. Would be a bet of the year.

Best price I can see with Norwich receiving a 3 goal head start I could find ws 4/11 with Betvictor.

My bad misread the dead cert coupon...its plus 3 or more goals in the game not plus 3 goals! daft bet to have on a dead cert line! my apologies

[Nico29]

No probs mate, am a spurs fan but even I would have had to bet on that!

[OverTheBorder]

No probs mate, am a spurs fan but even I would have had to bet on that!

I just ran round to the bookies, thank christ I lost my switch card yesterday or I could have been pretty deep!

[ripple11]

Sussex go from 159-1 to 200-8 after 37 overs....and imploding. 

.....this is going to be a sweat!