Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

close for cobb

[Marky147]

FOLs

[Bad Beat]

 Just read that the money on the spread (the handicap as we tend to say over here) was split 55%/45% with GB getting the most (and it all coming in late). On the total the split of total money wagered was 80%/20% with most going over.

 Despite that the books that cater to sharper clients (like Pinny) left the number at 50.5. They did visit 51 but they were clearly frightened of going to 51.5 (51 is the 2nd most common number for totals to land on).

 The big US syndicates (the wiseguys) were all under on this game.

 It's this battle between the public and the syndicates that makes US sports beatable.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Any thoughts on this bet Arsenal v soton.soton over 1.5 goals 3/1 soton 4+ 50/1.tenner on each with ladbrokes.

[tikay]

Loving the thread,makes fascinating reading to an amateur punter.Think Badbeat should release a book on his exploits over the years!

Welcome to blonde, & I'm glad you enjoy the thread.

Yup, Badbeat tells a cracking tale. After-Dinner speaking ftw.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0820, Friday September 14th

PROFIT on Month £168.00

Unsettled Bets  - £337.50

Details are contained in the spreadsheet here...


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=12

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0845, Friday September 14th

We lost £25 yesterday.

£5 went south on the Tour of Britain Cycling. We were a shade unlucky the way the race panned out, & we definitely had value, so it's fine.

£20 disappeared on two "First TD" bets on this morning's NFL. I think, on balance, we did well to only lose £20 on the game. There was huge interest, & lots of conflicting advice, which I found hard to reconcile. Like passing in poker, there are times when we save money by not betting, & I think that game was a good example.

The result, for those who never saw it, was that Green Bay Packers (the favourites) easily covered the handicap, the Unders were good, the Bears got blown away, & Cutler got proper battered, throwing 4 interceptions, & getting sacked seven times. This is not good. I know all that because it was on the interweb.

Cutler chuntered endlessly, perhaps with good reason, but something about him reminded me of Phil Hellmuth.







See the likeness? OK, maybe not.
 

Well done Packer Backers, hope you bought the hook & well & truly split the handle. Betting lingo, 'innit.

In Lades Golf, our wager on  Catriona Matthews never started as well as we hoped. Despite early promise, she ended the day at 4 over, with the leader at 2 under, & most of the bunch at 1 under. It looks a lot, but 5 or 6 strokes is not that much over 3 days on a tough Links course.

Arguably more interesting was the performance of Charley Hull, who ended the day at -1, & Lydia Ko, even par. Charley is 16, Lydia 15. Precocious is the adjective, I would suggest.

Both are incredibly talented, & 15 year old Miss Ko has already won the Canadian Open, & won her first Pro Event whilst she was fourteen. Tabloid editors must be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of several decades of easy headlines waiting to be knocked out.



 

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[peejaytwo]

I'm aware that Fred doesn't do "tips" but this is for the St Leger where the shape of the race and the each way terms means you have to have a bet.
Guarantee is an improving horse with form over the Leger distance. Apparently Wm Haggas is having sleepless nights at the thought of beating Camelot. 16/1 and quarter odds at Paddies
Like to hear from the form judges cos this is a must bet race

[tikay]

I'm aware that Fred doesn't do "tips" but this is for the St Leger where the shape of the race and the each way terms means you have to have a bet.
Guarantee is an improving horse with form over the Leger distance. Apparently Wm Haggas is having sleepless nights at the thought of beating Camelot. 16/1 and quarter odds at Paddies
Like to hear from the form judges cos this is a must bet race

Thanks!

To assist our experts on forming an opinion on that, here are the current St Leger odds. The race is tomorrow.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/st-leger

[Karabiner]

I'm not sure if you noticed Tony but yesterday was the first day of Doncaster's St. Leger meeting and it featured the Sceptre stakes. There was a quick pre-race piece on Sceptre too but no mention of a certain Mr. Sievier.

I was a little disappointed that the Sceptre stakes was only a group 3 considering the great mare's achievements in winning four out of the five classics as a 3-y-o which might well have been all five but for swerving at the start of The Derby and losing many lengths.

[tikay]

What’s coming up?

Day three of the St Leger meet at Doncaster.

It’s a short & long day, with the 5f Flying Childers, & the 2m 2f Doncaster Cup.

The Flying Childers is named after a horse often described as one of the first great thoroughbreds, & his breeding was pretty impressive, being out of none other than Darley Arabian. He was owned by the Duke of Devonshire, who reputedly turned down an offer of “his weight in gold” for Flying Childers.

But history distorts the truth, & Flying Childers racing record was not quite what many believe. First raced at 6 (!) he raced for 3 more seasons, having a grand total of just 6 races – three of which were walkovers, & two of which were “matches”.






Today’s card is here…..

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/meeting_of_cards.sd?r_date=2012-09-14&type=TV


Football is on Sky Sports tonight, Charlton v Palace, whilst the more interesting renewal between Brighton & Sheffield Wednesday is not televised. I think we had a tip for the Brighton game, I’ll have a rummage shortly.

Rugby League is also televised, Wigan v Catalan, which looks on paper to be a tad lop-sided.

The Ladies British Open Golf continues & is given 4 hours of live coverage on BBC2, with Peter Alliss, if yesterday is anything to go by, at the very top of his laconic game.

[tikay]

I'm not sure if you noticed Tony but yesterday was the first day of Doncaster's St. Leger meeting and it featured the Sceptre stakes. There was a quick pre-race piece on Sceptre too but no mention of a certain Mr. Sievier.

I was a little disappointed that the Sceptre stakes was only a group 3 considering the great mare's achievements in winning four out of the five classics as a 3-y-o which might well have been all five but for swerving at the start of The Derby and losing many lengths.

Bugger, how did I miss that?

I penned some tosh yesterday on the background to the Park Hill stakes, & today, on Flying Childers, & I managed to miss THE greatest racemare ever ever ever.

As you know, I am a Sceptre fanboy through & through, though slightly less fond of his enigmatic Jack-the-lad owner & sometime trainer, Bob Sievier.

I've told the story of Sceptre too many times already, so I'll spare everyone most of the details, but in 1902, she won....

The 2,000 Guineas

1,000 Guineas

Oaks

St James Palace Stakes

Nassau Stakes

St Leger 

All that after starting the season in none other than the Lincolnshire Handicap carrying..... 6st 7lbs! Think that's called a handicap good thing.

Robert Sievier backed her to win £28,000 in the Lincolnshire, but she got beaten by a head. Sievier was now deep in debt, so raced Sceptre frequently in order to generate betting income.

Notwithstanding winning 4 Classics & plenty else besides, Sievier, a genuine early-day degen, was so skinto by the end of the season that he was forced to try to sell her to satisfy his creditors, mainly East London moneylenders. He deliberately set the Reserve so high that she failed to sell, so he retained her, & tried again next season for the Lincolnshire, in which she again failed to win, this time under....9st 1lbs! 

Creditor pressure thus increased, & Sceptre was sold shortly after for £25,000, a phenom sum 110 years ago. She eventually ended up being owned by a chap named Tattersall, whose family went on to becane very famous, to this very day, in British Horse Racing.

There is a lovely story about Sceptre's career here....


http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/Sceptre.html




Thanks for the nudge Ralph, I love that sort of stuff.

[DungBeetle]

Morning Tikay.

Does the thread do spread bets?  There are a couple of backable batsmen in the T20 world cup next week for micro stakes of course.

It was me who tipped up Brighton, but didn't get much feedback (perhaps I put it up too early) so maybe best left alone.  In fact I think there was an Owls fan who didn't fancy my bet.

[tikay]

Morning Tikay.

Does the thread do spread bets?  There are a couple of backable batsmen in the T20 world cup next week for micro stakes of course.

It was me who tipped up Brighton, but didn't get much feedback (perhaps I put it up too early) so maybe best left alone.  In fact I think there was an Owls fan who didn't fancy my bet.

Good morning Mr Dung.

"Morning tikay"? Very civil, that I like.

Brighton - yes, I'll take another look.  I thought the "bounceback after a bad start" logic was quite interesting.


 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brighton-v-sheffield-wednesday/winner

Sppreads? We have not done any as of yet. Bad memory for me, I lost (this was over 10 years ago) a good deal of money on Spreads, & I'm a bit scared to re-visit that arena! They are incredibly exciting, & great fun, but oh-so addictive. If I thought I could hold my discipline, I'd maybe dip my toe again.....

[DungBeetle]

"Bad memory for me, I lost (this was over 10 years ago) a good deal of money on Spreads"

Yeah - I did as well many years ago.  Had to stop for a few years as it got to the stage where I would bet on every market on every match on the 1st round of Wimbledon and just sit there in a cloud of adrenaline.  Of course doing that means you absolutely do your pods on bid-offer so can't win. 

Anyhow after abstaining for a good few years I managed to get in a position where I can bet selectively and with a modicum of restraint.  The upside of my previous "adventures" back around 2002 is that I now have generous margin terms and unrestricted stakes.

Live and learn they say!