Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I have been looking at the championship (football ) for a couple of years now and in particular the both teams to score
market. So far this season there has been an average of 3.07 goals p. match ( div 1 2.5 , div 2 2.64 ).

As far as both teams scoring... week 1 BTS 4 not 8 , then BTS 8 not 4, BTS 8 not 4, BTS 9 not 3, BTS 8 not 4 , BTS 9
not 3. That is an average of 64% but if you take out the 1st week where you could argue teams were more interested
in not losing than winning , then it jumps to 70%.

With nearly all the teams being so closely matched the distribution of possession , shots etc will also be similar.

Last season there were 2 or 3 teams I would not include. For example Forest , who didnt score in 19 games and Hull
who seemed a very defensive outfit. Both have new managers and look like they are playing a more expansive game
this year.

You could use a scattergun approach but I like the look of 3 matches , Derby , Sheff W and Leeds . Both teams to score 9-2 on the betfred bonus coupon. Recommend £20. One day the lots gonna come in  

Jimbo!

What a spot that is.....

Sample size is ludicrous, but I really like the thinking, & we'd only need one from the three to get home & we'd be in blue-ville.

9-2 for all 3 games to have both teams scoring Tony!! Not each one- works out avg price of 1.765

FML. Again.

I'm off for my mid-afternoon nap.

[tikay]

That T20WC match starts @ 3pm, so we'll need to decide quite soon. I don't always wake up when intended, though it's always a relief when I do actually awake.

[DungBeetle]

I'm going to leave it from my perspective.  I think you and Hector are probably right that 3/1 isn't that special a price. 

I guess what I was trying to get at is I would rather give up 2 points and back him to be top bat than bet on him at 5/1 to be MOM in this contest. 

[horseplayer]

do the BTS coupons still offer value?

i am aware of a few people i no who made a killing when they first came out but for whatever reason i have never really looked into them

[tikay]

I'm going to leave it from my perspective.  I think you and Hector are probably right that 3/1 isn't that special a price. 

I guess what I was trying to get at is I would rather give up 2 points and back him to be top bat than bet on him at 5/1 to be MOM in this contest. 

Wel it comes down to this, then......

Amla MOM @ around 5/1.

Or, Amla Top Batter @ around 3/1.

To be MOM, he MUST be Top Batter, imo.

However, he can be Top Batter & not MOM - if, say, opps bat first & get skittled by Steyn who takes lots for not many, then SA are left chasing 85 or somesuch, & they just trundle them off with no pressure. In that scenario, The Bearded Wonder could be Top Batter, but not MOM, as they would be "easy" runs.

I'm off to bed for an hour, I'll try & dream about Amla & hector, which may yield some sort of answer.

PS - Please note I am working tonight, so the Shop will be shut between 5.30pm & Midnight for the purpose of placing bets. 

[horseplayer]

I'm going to leave it from my perspective.  I think you and Hector are probably right that 3/1 isn't that special a price. 

I guess what I was trying to get at is I would rather give up 2 points and back him to be top bat than bet on him at 5/1 to be MOM in this contest. 

Wel it comes down to this, then......

Amla MOM @ around 5/1.

Or, Amla Top Batter @ around 3/1.

To be MOM, he MUST be Top Batter, imo.

However, he can be Top Batter & not MOM - if, say, opps bat first & get skittled by Steyn who takes lots for not many, then SA are left chasing 85 or somesuch, & they just trundle them off with no pressure. In that scenario, The Bearded Wonder could be Top Batter, but not MOM, as they would be "easy" runs.

I'm off to bed for an hour, I'll try & dream about Amla & hector, which may yield some sort of answer.

PS - Please note I am working tonight, so the Shop will be shut between 5.30pm & Midnight for the purpose of placing bets. 

fantastic

i will try and work bayern munich into an email

having a day off the punting so that will keep me busy

have a good show

[Dubai]

The 3-1 is infinitely better than 5-1

[TightEnd]

Tonight's NFL match up sees The Giants visit Carolina, Charlotte to be precise

This sees Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks RG3 and Cam Newton battle in what should be a fun one

(Heisman Trophy: annual vote top college football player)

Newton was drafted first last year, was Rookie of the year

Griffin drafted second this year, started like a Mid West breakfast diner potato waffle on fire

idiot alert ^^^

I came to this match wanting to look at the match up between Newton and the Giants Defense

(Defense, 11 a side, a "front seven" of linemen and linebackers, big and ugly and a "secondary" of quick cornerbacks and safeties to disrput passes, tackle receivers etc)

The Giants have a phenomenal defensive front seven. Lots of pass-rushers, stout against the run. Jason Pierre Paul, if you can watch him, is just sensational. Great athlete. The Giants are far less phenomenal in the secondary, and stopping the pass

Last year Newton set two records

Most rushing yards by a rookie quarterback: 706
Most rushing touchdowns in a single season by a quarterback: 14

Those 706 rushing yards over 16 games included a 49 yard run. Average per game 44 yards. Average yards per carry 5.6

So he's good. He's big, throws and is mobile

This year 75 rushing yards in two games. Average per game 37.5 yards. Average yards per carry 4.2. Interestingly Newton rushed for 4 week 1, 71 week 2 against contrasting defenses *

An added piece of detail is the Carolina best rushing back Stewart missed the first game too, so arguably it was possible for the Tampa defense to key in on Newton a bit more on run plays, lowering that figure

Anyway, back to the point. I know Newton is a great runner, everyone knows this. It's in the price

What should be the rushing yards spread for Newton this game?

40-44 yards per game over an 18 game sample

You'd set it at? 45-46? To allow for most randoms generally being buyers of a marquee name like Newton in a national TV contest? Take a bit of the margin out for the buyers?

I might

So I look at the actual spread

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-giants-at-carolina-panthers/total-rushing-yds-cam-newton

and its 50.5 points in some UK places

Interesting

The match up and betting psychology is key here

Everyone knows he can run
The Giants are one of the best Defensive front sevens
The Giants can be passed on, so Newton has relatively easy pickings here **
The quoted pivot price is high

The relevant stat for Rushing Yards per game is in here

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-yards-per-game

NYG mid pack, but only allowed 79 last week, much better than the week before

* The Panthers played New Orleans week 2. One of the worst teams at stopping the run. Infact their opponents run on them more than any other team. See bottom of the ranking on:

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-attempts-per-game


** The following extract from a SI report illustrates the point

"Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz had 199 and 179 yards receiving, respectively, as the Giants (1-1) did enough to overcome Manning's dismal first 30 minutes. The stellar performance also allowed New York to prevail despite another rough day for its secondary, which Josh Freeman victimized for 243 yards and two touchdowns on just 15 completions.

Those coverage issues could prove fatal against Newton, who passed for 253 yards and ran for 71 with two total touchdowns in Carolina's 35-27 victory over New Orleans last week.

The Panthers (1-1) kept the Saints off balance by employing a mix of runs and passes for the athletic Newton - a problem Carolina won't have to worry about against Manning, a classic drop-back passer.

"You do read option, read option, read option and then get them to play seven or eight in the box and you've got so many variations of plays and passes you can run off that," Newton said.

For the Giants, the challenge will be maintaining tight coverage when Newton scrambles to buy time for his receivers, and they're hoping their powerful pass rush helps to contain him as well. Newton has been sacked four times in two games.

New York's struggling defensive backs, though, have been unable to prevent opposing receivers from having big games, with Vincent Jackson racking up 128 yards and a touchdown on five catches last week. Next up is the Panthers' Steve Smith , who had 104 yards on just three catches versus New Orleans after a 106-yard effort against Tampa Bay in the opener."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/gameflash/2012/09/20/4925/index.html#ixzz270o5tCkP

Recommended £50 Under 50.5 New York Giants at Carolina Panthers Total Rushing Yds - Cam Newton 10/11 with Ladbrokes.

[DungBeetle]

Kallis is opening this tournament alongside Richard Levi according to cricinfo.   I thought they would want to give Amla as much time at the crease as possible in the short format.

In other news, De Villiers, Amla and Kallis have all had the squits I am told in the last few days but have been declared fit to play.  Levi for top bat?

[Dubai]

The 9/2 with sporting bet is massive. Gonna back it now

[DungBeetle]

Excellent analysis Tighty.  I'm convinced.

[DungBeetle]

Hello Dubai.

Unrelated to betting but I was in Umu last night and they have a brand new menu with some really interesting new stuff on it like monkfish liver and wreckfish sashimi.   I know you are a fan so worth a visit if you haven't been in a while.

Dung

[Dubai]

Lovely cheers. Will head down soon and have a glance at the menu now

[Dubai]

Menu looks completely different- not sure if im a fan or not. Will try it anyway

[redarmi]

Tonight's NFL match up sees The Giants visit Carolina, Charlotte to be precise

This sees Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks RG3 and Cam Newton battle in what should be a fun one

(Heisman Trophy: annual vote top college football player)

Newton was drafted first last year, was Rookie of the year

Griffin drafted second this year, started like a Mid West breakfast diner potato waffle on fire

I came to this match wanting to look at the match up between Newton and the Giants Defense

(Defense, 11 a side, a "front seven" of linemen and linebackers, big and ugly and a "secondary" of quick cornerbacks and safeties to disrput passes, tackle receivers etc)

The Giants have a phenomenal defensive front seven. Lots of pass-rushers, stout against the run. Jason Pierre Paul, if you can watch him, is just sensational. Great athlete. The Giants are far less phenomenal in the secondary, and stopping the pass

Last year Newton set two records

Most rushing yards by a rookie quarterback: 706
Most rushing touchdowns in a single season by a quarterback: 14

Those 706 rushing yards over 16 games included a 49 yard run. Average per game 44 yards. Average yards per carry 5.6

So he's good. He's big, throws and is mobile

This year 75 rushing yards in two games. Average per game 37.5 yards. Average yards per carry 4.2. Interestingly Newton rushed for 4 week 1, 71 week 2 against contrasting defenses *

An added piece of detail is the Carolina best rushing back Stewart missed the first game too, so arguably it was possible for the Tampa defense to key in on Newton a bit more on run plays, lowering that figure

Anyway, back to the point. I know Newton is a great runner, everyone knows this. It's in the price

What should be the rushing yards spread for Newton this game?

40-44 yards per game over an 18 game sample

You'd set it at? 45-46? To allow for most randoms generally being buyers of a marquee name like Newton in a national TV contest? Take a bit of the margin out for the buyers?

I might

So I look at the actual spread

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-giants-at-carolina-panthers/total-rushing-yds-cam-newton

and its 50.5 points in some UK places

Interesting

The match up and betting psychology is key here

Everyone knows he can run
The Giants are one of the best Defensive front sevens
The Giants can be passed on, so Newton has relatively easy pickings here **
The quoted pivot price is high

The relevant stat for Rushing Yards per game is in here

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-yards-per-game

NYG mid pack, but only allowed 79 last week, much better than the week before

* The Panthers played New Orleans week 2. One of the worst teams at stopping the run. Infact their opponents run on them more than any other team. See bottom of the ranking on:

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-attempts-per-game


** The following extract from a SI report illustrates the point

"Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz had 199 and 179 yards receiving, respectively, as the Giants (1-1) did enough to overcome Manning's dismal first 30 minutes. The stellar performance also allowed New York to prevail despite another rough day for its secondary, which Josh Freeman victimized for 243 yards and two touchdowns on just 15 completions.

Those coverage issues could prove fatal against Newton, who passed for 253 yards and ran for 71 with two total touchdowns in Carolina's 35-27 victory over New Orleans last week.

The Panthers (1-1) kept the Saints off balance by employing a mix of runs and passes for the athletic Newton - a problem Carolina won't have to worry about against Manning, a classic drop-back passer.

"You do read option, read option, read option and then get them to play seven or eight in the box and you've got so many variations of plays and passes you can run off that," Newton said.

For the Giants, the challenge will be maintaining tight coverage when Newton scrambles to buy time for his receivers, and they're hoping their powerful pass rush helps to contain him as well. Newton has been sacked four times in two games.

New York's struggling defensive backs, though, have been unable to prevent opposing receivers from having big games, with Vincent Jackson racking up 128 yards and a touchdown on five catches last week. Next up is the Panthers' Steve Smith , who had 104 yards on just three catches versus New Orleans after a 106-yard effort against Tampa Bay in the opener."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/gameflash/2012/09/20/4925/index.html#ixzz270o5tCkP

Recommended £50 Under 50.5 New York Giants at Carolina Panthers Total Rushing Yds - Cam Newton 10/11 with Ladbrokes.

Excellent analysis.....but on a small point of order.....RG3 plays for the Redskins not the Giants.....