Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Is Leicester's play well/get beat form a case of being unlucky (in which case they're backable) or indicative of an underlying problem which means they're fairly priced?

there was an underlying problem end of last season/pre-season(egos, team spirit) but that seems to have been sorted

tempted to say unlucky but I think thats a bit trite. Not quite good enough at both ends, so far. If you concede a bad one and miss a lot of chances you are dropping points.

We're brilliant in the middle third though.

:-)

[AndrewT]

Keith if I win I do Sky out of a third of a penny.

[Doobs]

Afghanistan are a best priced 100/30 to hit most sixes today.

Their price will have been shaved due to the fact they drew with India. Also, I would imagine the bookies will think that the first thought which will go through punters heads is 'There's no KP - that means fewer sixes for England' so that will compress the price further.

England do still have plenty of batsmen who can clear the ropes but the stat which I found most interesting was that in the warm-up game vs Australia, England were outscored on the sixes 10-3, yet they still won the game. They hit plenty of fours so perhaps there's less of a tendency to go over the top.

I'm going to have a little tickle on Afghans to hit more sixes (more just to have a sweat during the game), though it's nowhere near as good a bet as it was against India.

Lulz - either my post or my £20 has moved Skybet's price to 11/4. Can't be too careful with Murdoch's money.

£20 @ 10/3???

£15 wins £50

or

£30 wins £100

Aren't all poker players affleicted with OCD like me?

I would rather lose a bet than win an ugly looking figure such as £66.67

Do you find youself having to tidy up your stack all the time online, by having to bet 20684 rather than 20000 too?

[horseplayer]

i am happy to win ugly

must be because i am an ugly git i guess

[hector62]

With out looking at stats I would say that it almost certainly is as people like to bet on results so the bookies can skew their prices somewhat. It is similar to rugby matches where the draw is often priced up too high.

[The Camel]

Afghanistan are a best priced 100/30 to hit most sixes today.

Their price will have been shaved due to the fact they drew with India. Also, I would imagine the bookies will think that the first thought which will go through punters heads is 'There's no KP - that means fewer sixes for England' so that will compress the price further.

England do still have plenty of batsmen who can clear the ropes but the stat which I found most interesting was that in the warm-up game vs Australia, England were outscored on the sixes 10-3, yet they still won the game. They hit plenty of fours so perhaps there's less of a tendency to go over the top.

I'm going to have a little tickle on Afghans to hit more sixes (more just to have a sweat during the game), though it's nowhere near as good a bet as it was against India.

Lulz - either my post or my £20 has moved Skybet's price to 11/4. Can't be too careful with Murdoch's money.

£20 @ 10/3???

£15 wins £50

or

£30 wins £100

Aren't all poker players affleicted with OCD like me?

I would rather lose a bet than win an ugly looking figure such as £66.67

Do you find youself having to tidy up your stack all the time online, by having to bet 20684 rather than 20000 too?

Absolutely.

And fill up at the petrol station £60.00

And tidy my bank accounts so they always end with .00

Doesn't every sane person?

[edgascoigne]

With out looking at stats I would say that it almost certainly is as people like to bet on results so the bookies can skew their prices somewhat. It is similar to rugby matches where the draw is often priced up too high.

Sorry Hector, this looks curiously out of context now as I had deleted my post - (asking whether we thought 6/1 is value for Sixes/team to be tied in Eng Vs Afghanistan)

Agree whole-heartedly with the above though started spinning the numbers... you're essentially looking for the combined prob. of the below to be > 15% to have an edge:

Each team 1*Six, Each team 2*Six, Each team 3*Six, Each team 4*Six, Each team 5*Six.

I do think it's close though I wouldn't be confident with it as a tip as it's purely a statistical play (save the edge of betting against an outcome) and I'm relying on gut feel rather than said statistics!!

[Doobs]

With out looking at stats I would say that it almost certainly is as people like to bet on results so the bookies can skew their prices somewhat. It is similar to rugby matches where the draw is often priced up too high.

Sorry Hector, this looks curiously out of context now as I had deleted my post - (asking whether we thought 6/1 is value for Sixes/team to be tied in Eng Vs Afghanistan)

Agree whole-heartedly with the above though started spinning the numbers... you're essentially looking for the combined prob. of the below to be > 15% to have an edge:

Each team 1*Six, Each team 2*Six, Each team 3*Six, Each team 4*Six, Each team 5*Six.

I do think it's close though I wouldn't be confident with it as a tip as it's purely a statistical play (save the edge of betting against an outcome) and I'm relying on gut feel rather than said statistics!!

Looks good to me without running it through the stats.  13/2 at skybet

[Doobs]

With out looking at stats I would say that it almost certainly is as people like to bet on results so the bookies can skew their prices somewhat. It is similar to rugby matches where the draw is often priced up too high.

Sorry Hector, this looks curiously out of context now as I had deleted my post - (asking whether we thought 6/1 is value for Sixes/team to be tied in Eng Vs Afghanistan)

Agree whole-heartedly with the above though started spinning the numbers... you're essentially looking for the combined prob. of the below to be > 15% to have an edge:

Each team 1*Six, Each team 2*Six, Each team 3*Six, Each team 4*Six, Each team 5*Six.

I do think it's close though I wouldn't be confident with it as a tip as it's purely a statistical play (save the edge of betting against an outcome) and I'm relying on gut feel rather than said statistics!!

Looks good to me without running it through the stats.  13/2 at skybet

Ah, bet too quickly, get it as about 7.5/1 giving Afganistan poisson with mean of 2.5, england poisson with mean of 4.5.  Does that feel right?

Edit.  The price is about right if you put Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  Don't feel so bad now.

[edgascoigne]

With out looking at stats I would say that it almost certainly is as people like to bet on results so the bookies can skew their prices somewhat. It is similar to rugby matches where the draw is often priced up too high.

Sorry Hector, this looks curiously out of context now as I had deleted my post - (asking whether we thought 6/1 is value for Sixes/team to be tied in Eng Vs Afghanistan)

Agree whole-heartedly with the above though started spinning the numbers... you're essentially looking for the combined prob. of the below to be > 15% to have an edge:

Each team 1*Six, Each team 2*Six, Each team 3*Six, Each team 4*Six, Each team 5*Six.

I do think it's close though I wouldn't be confident with it as a tip as it's purely a statistical play (save the edge of betting against an outcome) and I'm relying on gut feel rather than said statistics!!

Looks good to me without running it through the stats.  13/2 at skybet

Ah, bet too quickly, get it as about 7.5/1 giving Afganistan poisson with mean of 2.5, england poisson with mean of 4.5.  Does that feel right?

Edit.  The price is about right if you put Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  Don't feel so bad now.

Bolded feels closer than the italics.

Yeah, it's probably about fair so not a recommendation but it did catch the eye. Elements of mug-punting persist in my behaviour (helps keep me in check from ever blowing up is my excuse) and I have had a dabble on this. Call it a mental leak or whatever you like.

Also its a pretty good sweat bet for duration of feasibility and potential return!

[Doobs]

With out looking at stats I would say that it almost certainly is as people like to bet on results so the bookies can skew their prices somewhat. It is similar to rugby matches where the draw is often priced up too high.

Sorry Hector, this looks curiously out of context now as I had deleted my post - (asking whether we thought 6/1 is value for Sixes/team to be tied in Eng Vs Afghanistan)

Agree whole-heartedly with the above though started spinning the numbers... you're essentially looking for the combined prob. of the below to be > 15% to have an edge:

Each team 1*Six, Each team 2*Six, Each team 3*Six, Each team 4*Six, Each team 5*Six.

I do think it's close though I wouldn't be confident with it as a tip as it's purely a statistical play (save the edge of betting against an outcome) and I'm relying on gut feel rather than said statistics!!

Looks good to me without running it through the stats.  13/2 at skybet

Ah, bet too quickly, get it as about 7.5/1 giving Afganistan poisson with mean of 2.5, england poisson with mean of 4.5.  Does that feel right?

Edit.  The price is about right if you put Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  Don't feel so bad now.

Bolded feels closer than the italics.

Yeah, it's probably about fair so not a recommendation but it did catch the eye. Elements of mug-punting persist in my behaviour (helps keep me in check from ever blowing up is my excuse) and I have had a dabble on this. Call it a mental leak or whatever you like.

Also its a pretty good sweat bet for duration of feasibility and potential return!

11/4 Afganistan is about right on that too.  The England price is terrible if the means are Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  THe averages need to be closer together for this to be a good bet.  But if they were closer together, I think we should be on Afganistan and not the tie!  We are where we are though.

   

 

[smashedagain]

Afghanistan are a best priced 100/30 to hit most sixes today.

Their price will have been shaved due to the fact they drew with India. Also, I would imagine the bookies will think that the first thought which will go through punters heads is 'There's no KP - that means fewer sixes for England' so that will compress the price further.

England do still have plenty of batsmen who can clear the ropes but the stat which I found most interesting was that in the warm-up game vs Australia, England were outscored on the sixes 10-3, yet they still won the game. They hit plenty of fours so perhaps there's less of a tendency to go over the top.

I'm going to have a little tickle on Afghans to hit more sixes (more just to have a sweat during the game), though it's nowhere near as good a bet as it was against India.

Lulz - either my post or my £20 has moved Skybet's price to 11/4. Can't be too careful with Murdoch's money.

£20 @ 10/3???

£15 wins £50

or

£30 wins £100

Aren't all poker players affleicted with OCD like me?

I would rather lose a bet than win an ugly looking figure such as £66.67

Do you find youself having to tidy up your stack all the time online, by having to bet 20684 rather than 20000 too?

Absolutely.

And fill up at the petrol station £60.00

And tidy my bank accounts so they always end with .00

Doesn't every sane person?

its getting increasingly more common that I am having to put a tenner more petrol in the car than I wanted to because of that bloody 0.01 on the pump 

[77dave]

Heskey joins Newcastle Jets in Aus.

[horseplayer]

Heskey joins Newcastle Jets in Aus.

must have been a massive price!

[Tonji]

Mark Cavendish move from Sky has moved a step further. The Belgian team Omega Pharma-Quick Step are favourites to sign him. Reports from Cycling forums & some insiders on twitter (including some Belgian journos) indicate a verbal agreement has been made with the team manager.

Not for Fred (obv) but Skybet have a special up. Who will Cavendish ride for in 2013? 5/6. I have topped up.