Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Six goals scored total in the last six matches between Manchester City and Arsenal

All three matches in 2011-12 finished 1-0

So far this season Arsenal in 4 games concede 0,0,0,1

So far this season Man C in 4 games concede 2,2,1,1

Yet under 2.5 is a 11/10 dog to over 2.5 4/6 favourite

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-arsenal/over-under-2.5

Would suggest that his is the wrong way round for Sunday

The goalscoring firepower is perfectly priced in/extremely well known by everyone, tight defences aren't priced in

We get 1-0 either way,2-0 either way, 1-1,0-0 at odds against (obviously)

Wouldn't expect this to be popular on the thread, but its a contrarian view with stats to back it up

[redarmi]

Six goals scored total in the last six matches between Manchester City and Arsenal

All three matches in 2011-12 finished 1-0

So far this season Arsenal in 4 games concede 0,0,0,1

So far this season Man C in 4 games concede 2,2,1,1

Yet under 2.5 is a 11/10 dog to over 2.5 4/6 favourite

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-arsenal/over-under-2.5

Would suggest that his is the wrong way round for Sunday

The goalscoring firepower is perfectly priced in/extremely well known by everyone, tight defences aren't priced in

We get 1-0 either way,2-0 either way, 1-1,0-0 at odds against (obviously)

Wouldn't expect this to be popular on the thread, but its a contrarian view with stats to back it up

I had the same initial thoughts and am planning on looking at it a bit closer this afternoon.  Also thought that all favoured Arsenal a bit.

[horseplayer]

obviously not sure what the line will be but suggest backing under when the afghans bat

this pitch is an absolute dog on evidence so far

[Doobs]

With out looking at stats I would say that it almost certainly is as people like to bet on results so the bookies can skew their prices somewhat. It is similar to rugby matches where the draw is often priced up too high.

Sorry Hector, this looks curiously out of context now as I had deleted my post - (asking whether we thought 6/1 is value for Sixes/team to be tied in Eng Vs Afghanistan)

Agree whole-heartedly with the above though started spinning the numbers... you're essentially looking for the combined prob. of the below to be > 15% to have an edge:

Each team 1*Six, Each team 2*Six, Each team 3*Six, Each team 4*Six, Each team 5*Six.

I do think it's close though I wouldn't be confident with it as a tip as it's purely a statistical play (save the edge of betting against an outcome) and I'm relying on gut feel rather than said statistics!!

Looks good to me without running it through the stats.  13/2 at skybet

Ah, bet too quickly, get it as about 7.5/1 giving Afganistan poisson with mean of 2.5, england poisson with mean of 4.5.  Does that feel right?

Edit.  The price is about right if you put Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  Don't feel so bad now.

Bolded feels closer than the italics.

Yeah, it's probably about fair so not a recommendation but it did catch the eye. Elements of mug-punting persist in my behaviour (helps keep me in check from ever blowing up is my excuse) and I have had a dabble on this. Call it a mental leak or whatever you like.

Also its a pretty good sweat bet for duration of feasibility and potential return!

11/4 Afganistan is about right on that too.  The England price is terrible if the means are Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  THe averages need to be closer together for this to be a good bet.  But if they were closer together, I think we should be on Afganistan and not the tie!  We are where we are though.

   

 

England 2 sixes in 15 overs.  This must be good for both bets?

[horseplayer]

With out looking at stats I would say that it almost certainly is as people like to bet on results so the bookies can skew their prices somewhat. It is similar to rugby matches where the draw is often priced up too high.

Sorry Hector, this looks curiously out of context now as I had deleted my post - (asking whether we thought 6/1 is value for Sixes/team to be tied in Eng Vs Afghanistan)

Agree whole-heartedly with the above though started spinning the numbers... you're essentially looking for the combined prob. of the below to be > 15% to have an edge:

Each team 1*Six, Each team 2*Six, Each team 3*Six, Each team 4*Six, Each team 5*Six.

I do think it's close though I wouldn't be confident with it as a tip as it's purely a statistical play (save the edge of betting against an outcome) and I'm relying on gut feel rather than said statistics!!

Looks good to me without running it through the stats.  13/2 at skybet

Ah, bet too quickly, get it as about 7.5/1 giving Afganistan poisson with mean of 2.5, england poisson with mean of 4.5.  Does that feel right?

Edit.  The price is about right if you put Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  Don't feel so bad now.

Bolded feels closer than the italics.

Yeah, it's probably about fair so not a recommendation but it did catch the eye. Elements of mug-punting persist in my behaviour (helps keep me in check from ever blowing up is my excuse) and I have had a dabble on this. Call it a mental leak or whatever you like.

Also its a pretty good sweat bet for duration of feasibility and potential return!

11/4 Afganistan is about right on that too.  The England price is terrible if the means are Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  THe averages need to be closer together for this to be a good bet.  But if they were closer together, I think we should be on Afganistan and not the tie!  We are where we are though.

   

 

England 2 sixes in 15 overs.  This must be good for both bets?

3 now which is a decent effort on this pitch be surprised if the afghans get more than 1 tbh

[Doobs]

With out looking at stats I would say that it almost certainly is as people like to bet on results so the bookies can skew their prices somewhat. It is similar to rugby matches where the draw is often priced up too high.

Sorry Hector, this looks curiously out of context now as I had deleted my post - (asking whether we thought 6/1 is value for Sixes/team to be tied in Eng Vs Afghanistan)

Agree whole-heartedly with the above though started spinning the numbers... you're essentially looking for the combined prob. of the below to be > 15% to have an edge:

Each team 1*Six, Each team 2*Six, Each team 3*Six, Each team 4*Six, Each team 5*Six.

I do think it's close though I wouldn't be confident with it as a tip as it's purely a statistical play (save the edge of betting against an outcome) and I'm relying on gut feel rather than said statistics!!

Looks good to me without running it through the stats.  13/2 at skybet

Ah, bet too quickly, get it as about 7.5/1 giving Afganistan poisson with mean of 2.5, england poisson with mean of 4.5.  Does that feel right?

Edit.  The price is about right if you put Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  Don't feel so bad now.

Bolded feels closer than the italics.

Yeah, it's probably about fair so not a recommendation but it did catch the eye. Elements of mug-punting persist in my behaviour (helps keep me in check from ever blowing up is my excuse) and I have had a dabble on this. Call it a mental leak or whatever you like.

Also its a pretty good sweat bet for duration of feasibility and potential return!

11/4 Afganistan is about right on that too.  The England price is terrible if the means are Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  THe averages need to be closer together for this to be a good bet.  But if they were closer together, I think we should be on Afganistan and not the tie!  We are where we are though.

   

 

England 2 sixes in 15 overs.  This must be good for both bets?

3 now which is a decent effort on this pitch be surprised if the afghans get more than 1 tbh

bokked, now 4

[edgascoigne]

With out looking at stats I would say that it almost certainly is as people like to bet on results so the bookies can skew their prices somewhat. It is similar to rugby matches where the draw is often priced up too high.

Sorry Hector, this looks curiously out of context now as I had deleted my post - (asking whether we thought 6/1 is value for Sixes/team to be tied in Eng Vs Afghanistan)

Agree whole-heartedly with the above though started spinning the numbers... you're essentially looking for the combined prob. of the below to be > 15% to have an edge:

Each team 1*Six, Each team 2*Six, Each team 3*Six, Each team 4*Six, Each team 5*Six.

I do think it's close though I wouldn't be confident with it as a tip as it's purely a statistical play (save the edge of betting against an outcome) and I'm relying on gut feel rather than said statistics!!

Looks good to me without running it through the stats.  13/2 at skybet

Ah, bet too quickly, get it as about 7.5/1 giving Afganistan poisson with mean of 2.5, england poisson with mean of 4.5.  Does that feel right?

Edit.  The price is about right if you put Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  Don't feel so bad now.

Bolded feels closer than the italics.

Yeah, it's probably about fair so not a recommendation but it did catch the eye. Elements of mug-punting persist in my behaviour (helps keep me in check from ever blowing up is my excuse) and I have had a dabble on this. Call it a mental leak or whatever you like.

Also its a pretty good sweat bet for duration of feasibility and potential return!

11/4 Afganistan is about right on that too.  The England price is terrible if the means are Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  THe averages need to be closer together for this to be a good bet.  But if they were closer together, I think we should be on Afganistan and not the tie!  We are where we are though.

  

  

England 2 sixes in 15 overs.  This must be good for both bets?

3 now which is a decent effort on this pitch be surprised if the afghans get more than 1 tbh

Was v happy with Eng at 2 sixes after 15. If it makes up 5+ both bets basically dead I think, 4 and they're live and @3 we are properly in play.

[class]

Now at 5 6's.....


* Edit, make that 7!*

[edgascoigne]

With out looking at stats I would say that it almost certainly is as people like to bet on results so the bookies can skew their prices somewhat. It is similar to rugby matches where the draw is often priced up too high.

Sorry Hector, this looks curiously out of context now as I had deleted my post - (asking whether we thought 6/1 is value for Sixes/team to be tied in Eng Vs Afghanistan)

Agree whole-heartedly with the above though started spinning the numbers... you're essentially looking for the combined prob. of the below to be > 15% to have an edge:

Each team 1*Six, Each team 2*Six, Each team 3*Six, Each team 4*Six, Each team 5*Six.

I do think it's close though I wouldn't be confident with it as a tip as it's purely a statistical play (save the edge of betting against an outcome) and I'm relying on gut feel rather than said statistics!!

Looks good to me without running it through the stats.  13/2 at skybet

Ah, bet too quickly, get it as about 7.5/1 giving Afganistan poisson with mean of 2.5, england poisson with mean of 4.5.  Does that feel right?

Edit.  The price is about right if you put Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  Don't feel so bad now.

Bolded feels closer than the italics.

Yeah, it's probably about fair so not a recommendation but it did catch the eye. Elements of mug-punting persist in my behaviour (helps keep me in check from ever blowing up is my excuse) and I have had a dabble on this. Call it a mental leak or whatever you like.

Also its a pretty good sweat bet for duration of feasibility and potential return!

11/4 Afganistan is about right on that too.  The England price is terrible if the means are Afganistan at 3 and England at 4.5.  THe averages need to be closer together for this to be a good bet.  But if they were closer together, I think we should be on Afganistan and not the tie!  We are where we are though.

  

  

England 2 sixes in 15 overs.  This must be good for both bets?

3 now which is a decent effort on this pitch be surprised if the afghans get more than 1 tbh

Was v happy with Eng at 2 sixes after 15. If it makes up 5+ both bets basically dead I think, 4 and they're live and @3 we are properly in play.

Buried

[Stopsleyhatter]

For anyone interested in a bet tonight Luton are a decent 6/4 at grimsby and 3/1 htft.

[TightEnd]

I doubt Afghanistan will get 100 on this two paced pitch if anyone does total spreads

they've fielded worse than my 3rd XI, and England are already 30-40 over par

[Doobs]

I doubt Afghanistan will get 100 on this two paced pitch if anyone does total spreads

they've fielded worse than my 3rd XI, and England are already 30-40 over par

If they get 48, I'll be happy, so long as they get them al in obv

[edgascoigne]

I doubt Afghanistan will get 100 on this two paced pitch if anyone does total spreads

they've fielded worse than my 3rd XI, and England are already 30-40 over par

If they get 48, I'll be happy, so long as they get them al in obv

Oh well. Would have been more galling if we'd been on 'century to be scored'!

[horseplayer]

wishes he sold the runs

[horseplayer]